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AFC Season Preview
I guess it’s time for me to be a sheep and write my NFL season preview, like everyone else across America. I think I’m going to keep this pretty simple, this post will be my preview of the AFC. I must admit that during the season I don’t pay too much attention to the AFC. They (meaning CBS) have had the worst pre-game show imaginable since they began broadcasting the AFC in the early ‘90s. For starters, they have ran out a whose who of people who should be restrained from speaking under any circumstances. Deon Sanders? Shannon Sharpe? Honestly, do I need to continue? As an Eagles fan, I have a vested interest in the NFC, so that is where the majority of my time is spent. If this is not bad enough, I think they have terrible guys in the booth for the most part...Dan Dierdorf, Phil Simms, Jim Nantz, Randy Cross. Jesus Christ, the list keeps going...Dick Enberg, Ian Eagle, Tim Brando. Alright, I think I made my point.
Let’s go through the divisions with record and playoff predictions, which I will ignore and deny until I die when they all prove to be wrong.
AFC EAST
This is the Pat’s division. I don’t care what anyone says. Bill Belicheck and Tom Brady will not allow the Pat’s to lose the division. I know they have had chunks of their roster eaten away by free agency, but they still have a core of players who have won 3 of the last 5 Superbowls and that has to count for something. The team just wins and we all need to accept and expect it at this point. The Dolphins will finish second and will make a run at a wild card spot. Nick Saban is a damn good coach and will have his team ready to play. I do have some concerns about Daunte Cullpepper being surrounded by so many waterways and boats. Well, someone needed to make a hack joke about the Loveboat Sex Cruise and Culpepper now playing in Miami. The Bills and the Jets both stink. I think the Bills eek out 3rd place in the division because the have a better defense and Willis McGahee, in comparison to the Jets who have nothing.
New England Patriots 12-4 Miami Dolphins 10-6 Buffalo Bills 6-10 New York Jets 5-11
AFC SOUTH
Besides the Colts, this division is terrible. Has anyone taken this into account while the Colts have been racking up regular season wins and crapping the bed in the playoffs the last few years? Hell, they are practically guaranteed 6 wins with this division. Obviously, the Colts win this division going away but they will definitely miss Edge this year. It is good to hear that the NFL tried to make the loss of Edge up to by allowing Quarterbacks to manipulate the games balls all week prior to the game. How far are we away from giving the Colts a 10 point lead in every game? All right I think that is all my complaining about Peyton Manning for now. The Jags are going to hit a wall this year with Greg Jones already lost for the year and the retirement of Jimmy Smith. Not to mention, they have a pretty tough schedule. The Texans stink and so do the Titans. I am interested to see Gary Kubiak work with David Carr. He has been highly talked about as an offensive guru and helped Jake Plummer remarkably, so maybe he can help Carr develop into the player the Texans' thought he was when they drafted him. Personally, I have never been sold on Carr and will be smiling when he throws 3 picks against the Eagles in week 1. I have no idea what the Titans are doing. First, they take Vince Young because the owner really liked him, over Matt Lienhart, who the coaching staff wanted. Then, they sign Kerry Collins the week before the season starts and apparently are attempting to trade Billy Volek.
Indianapolis Colts 13-3 Jacksonville Jaguars 7-9 Houston Texans 6-10 Tennessee Titans 5-11
AFC CENTRAL
This is the second or third best division in the NFL. The Steelers, Bengals, and Ravens all have a legitimate chance to win the division. You have to remember the Superbowl Champs didn’t win this division last year. My guess is the Steelers take a step back with the losses of Randle El and Jerome Bettis. I think Marvin Lewis will be able to right the ship in Cincinnati and prevent them from becoming the NFL’s version of the Portland Trailblazers. I hate Brian Billick, but I think the Ravens have a pretty good shot at making the playoffs, although they will fall just short. The defense is awesome. I am digging the offense. I think McNair has a few good years left in him and playing with Derek Mason will help rejuvenate him. McNair also should be comfortable throwing to Todd Heap. The Browns will bring up the rear but Romeo Crennell has them on the right path.
Cincinnati Bengals 11-5 Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6 Baltimore Ravens 9-7 Cleveland Browns 5-11
AFC WEST
I think everyone is dismissing the Chargers and that is a huge mistake. Two years ago the Chargers were the “it” team in the AFC. Last year they had an incredibly difficult season that practically ended their season before it started. This year the schedule is much more favorable. I know everyone is saying the big difference is Phillip Rivers starting at Quarterback, but he was a top 5 pick only a few years ago and played well in the previous pre-seasons. The Chargers also have an excellent running back and tight end in place, which is a huge security blanket for a first year quarterback. I was never sold on the Broncos last. Jake Plummer is a time bomb waiting to implode and the Steelers showed us that in the AFC Championship game last year. Here is how you beat the Broncos, stack the line of scrimmage and make Plummer beat you. It is more likely than not, that he is going to start chucking interceptions. The Chiefs have Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez, Trent Green and that is pretty much it. They will win some games and LJ will have a monster season but .500 is as good as they will do. The Raiders are bad. Really, really bad.
San Diego Chargers 11-5 Denver Broncos 10-6 Kansas City Chiefs 8-8 Oakland Raiders 5-11
The Division winners are Patriots, Colts, Bengals and Chargers. The Wild Cards are Dolphins and Broncos. The Patriots beat the Colts in the AFC Championship game. I don’t care who they have lost in the last few years. The Patriots are the team to beat in the AFC every year as long as they have Bellicheck and Brady. Let’s remember it took terrible officiating and a terrible game from the entire Patriots team to lose to the Broncos last year. My money says that doesn’t happen two years in a row.
This one was tough, and before I name my winner and runner up I have a few observations:
1) Unlike any other position, some of the greatest tight ends of our generation have come from some really obscure schools. For example: Ben Coates (Livingstone), Shannon Sharpe (Savannah), Eric Green (Liberty), Brent Jones (Santa Clara), Steve Jordan (Brown), Antonio Gates (Kent), Pete Metzalaars (Wabash), Jay Novacek (Wyoming).
2) To really decide who was TE University, it was imperative that I open up the years a bit. The previous list is fairly comprehensive of the best TE's of the past 20 years and I don't think anyone would be suprised to discover that schools like Livingstone and Wabash only had one TE in the NFL.
3) Although they didn't make the top 2, the University of Washington once again suprised me with the amount of TE talent they have sent to the NFL. While none of them are great players, Washington has sent the NFL 5 servicable tight ends in the last 10 years: Eric Bjornson, Mark Bruener, Cam Cleeland, Ernie Conwell, and Jerramy Stevens.
4) The obvious urge is to pick the University of Miami based on their amazing run of tight ends recently, but if we are basing this list on pro production Miami is lacking. Bubba Franks has been OK in Green Bay and made a few pro bowls, but he is far from the dominant TE the Packers had hoped for. Jeremy Shockey has been very good in NY, but Kellen Winslow Jr. has yet to take the field. For me, Miami was eliminated rather early.
Runner Up - Brigham Young (Todd Christiensen, Doug Jolley, Chad Lewis, Itula Mili) The TE has always been a big part of the BYU offense and this list proves that the playes are ready to contribute in the NFL when they leave Provo. Christiensen was one of the best recieving tight ends ever being named to five pro bowls in the 1980's. Three times he topped 1000 yards with the raiders and missed a fourth time by 13 yards. Chad Lewis was a solid TE for an Eagles team that racked up wins in the 2000's. He made two pro-bowls and was a key player in their consecutive runs to the NFC title game. Both Mili and Jolley showed promise as rookies but never really built on that momentum. Still, both are servicable players and give BYU the depth to make the top 2.
My Selection - Notre Dame (Dave Casper, Mark Bavaro, Pete Holohan, Tony Hunter) Notre Dame gets the nod based on straight up excellence. The Irish boast the greatest tight end of the 1970's in Casper, and one of the greatest tight ends of the 1980's in Bavaro. Holohan was an above average TE for the Chargers and Rams in the late 80's racking up nearly 4000 career receiving yards. Hunter led a rather uninspiring four year career, but like Mili and Jolley had his moments (50 catches for 562 yards in 1985). The bottom line, though, is excellence. I consider Dave Casper and Mark Bavaro to be two of the three best tight ends ever because they were dominant all around football players. Dave Casper racked up over 5000 recieving yards and 52 TD playing in an era where "pas interference" was still a foreign term to officials. Bavaro has similar career numbers with just under 5000 yards and 39 TD. However, the thing that sets both players apart from their peers was their blocking ability. In this era of Shannon Sharpe's and Kellen Winslows we forget that tight ends are supposed to be able to block too. Casper and Bavaro were the best of the best, acting as an asset in the running game (rather than a liability like Sharpe and Winslow). Casper was the best blocking tight end ever. A hulking 6'4'' 250 lbs., Casper played some tackle in college and used that ability to dominate defensive ends in the NFL. New Irish product Anthony Fasano is playing for Bavaro's old coach (Parcells) and could continue the great lineage of Irish tight ends.
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