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Since you will all be deprived of a Thursday afternoon entry, I decided to give you some Thursday AM reading, Wednesday night. Word.
So, to start things off, I called the d8k after he left me a message, and what happens? I got a BUSY signal. I was in shock. I almost dropped my phone. I almost choked on the air in my lungs. I almost fainted. A busy signal. The last time I got a busy signal (not including Ticketmaster) was back when Nirvana was tearing up the charts, "Studs" was the late night controversial show (wow, so much has changed), Bill and Ted just started their first of 2 blockbuster movies and Gregg Jefferies was snubbed by Mark Grace for first base in the all-star game. I am actually still in shock at the moment, but I'll get over it. A busy signal.
Anyway, enough of that. Speaking of the overrated Mark Grace, he was espn's trivia question today. Wonderful. I am waiting for Jessie Barfield, Alvaro Espinosa and Kevin McRynolds get their due. If I can reminisce for a moment - I had a shirt, one of the "big headed" shirts back in the early 90's that all kids would wear. You know, the cartoon body and huge head that had elaborate writing on it. Out of all the things that are coming back as "old school" traditions, I am shocked these are still in the shitter. I had a Kevin McRynolds, David Cone and Gregg Jefferies big head shirt. Wonderful. Not as good as my adult XL Mets Cone t-shirt jersey when I was 9. And to this day, I am still pissed at my mother for not letting me get the Gregg Jefferies t-shirt jersey because it was 'too big.' XL and XXL when I am 9 - there is no difference. So upset. Back to old school shirts.
Those were some good ones, as was my Denver Broncos poster of John Mobley (next to B-Dawk, M-Lew, DMC, TO, The Truck, etc... all eagles... he is/was my favorite player), Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe and John Elway. Clutch. Right next to that poster was a Tim Biankabatuka Carolina Pathers poster (I also have his jersey, proper). Right below that was a Mario Lemieux, Ron Francis and Jarmoir Jagr poster, which was money, since that year they came in 1st,5th and 2nd in the scoring race, which, to this day, I still find remarkable. I also had a Paul Kariya, numerous Lemieux posters, and my pride and joy, a poster of The Stanley Cup (wonder why my cat is named Stanley). If you are still on the fact that I do own a Tim Biankabatuka jersey, know this, I also own an authentic 'Neon' Deion Sanders Falcons jersey and a black Elway jersey. I don't mess around. I keep it real. Mother fucking real. Oh and to prove that I KIR (MFR), I never owned a baseball jersey, owned numerous hockey jerseys (about 4 Lemieux's, Jagr, Kariya, U of Maine, SJ Sharks (for my favorite all-time hockey player, Bob Errey), and an Edmonton Oilers), numerous football jerseys and 1 basketball jersey. I owned an authentic Phoenix Suns Barkley jersey. I rest my case, and you now know how cool I was, and how cool I must be at this moment.
Wow, those were the days, back when I collected baseball cards, found the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition comparable to Playboy and slept in a sleeping bag because I was superstitious (I slept in that thing until I was 18 and left for college... I swear, I am too superstitious).
I do have a story of when I kept it real and in turn, the FBI showed up at my door (I'm serious). Then, there was this time that I almost burned down my house because I lit a low margin (I sold, or traded, firecrackers for baseball cards when I was younger) firecracker and it jumped into my garage and started a huge fire. I initially tried to put it out with a glass of water, then I got the hose. Those were the days, and those stories will come, but not now.
Oh, and back to the busy signal, THAT is keepin it real.
First of all, I am not an NFL expert. I follow the league closely and try to absorb as much as I can. Many of my opinions are formed though a combination of writers and analysts. My attempt is decipher the good and the bad, and put my own spin on it to hopefully make it unique and interesting. I will try to do a preview post before each game and a review post after and maybe an extra note or 2 during the week (injuries, free agents, etc.) Now on to the preview
OTAs and Preseason
I spent a greater part of the spring and summer reading, watching, and absorbing as much information on this team as much as humanly possible. I have watched and reviewed all 4 preseason games, attended the first game in San Diego, and read most of the major papers. As I mentioned, I do not claim to be an authority, so if something is inaccurate, let me know.
One major thing I took away from the OTAs is the lack of participation by several key veterans (especially on the defensive end), which showed in the preseason. Woodson & Harris both skipped, as well as Manuel for part of the second. If this secondary is going to improve, then it has to work as a cohesive unit, and the lack of participation can hurt. I am not trying to say because these guys skipped a weeks worth of OTAs the season is done, it just means it will take longer for this group to work as a cohesive unit, which preseason showed
Preseason - A Tale of 2 Teams?
Will the real Green Bay Packers please stand up? After watching all 4 preseason games I have determined one thing: This team can be as good as it wants when all cylinders are clicking, or they can be as bad as any team (even SF) if they want.
The San Diego game was pitiful. I drove down from LA to see them up close live and was extremely disappointed by not only the play, but the effort was terrible.
The Atlanta game was the complete opposite of the SD game. Favre was at his best. Jennings looked spectacular, and the defense was solid
Cincinnati: Worst game I've seen in 12 years, except for maybe the Balt game last season. It was every problem with this team magnified on the national stage
Tennessee: First teams looked fine, The second teams got beat up by Tennessee's first team, but that is to be expected. I consider this game a wash.
General Preseason Observations
I am tired of the national media basing the entire 2006 season on the Cincinnati preseason game. Yes it was bad. But it is a long season. A team cannot be judged by its preseason performance. There are too many variables at play, so I am not going to hold it against them. The best way to analyze a team’s performance is by the production at each offensive, defensive, and special teams group
Offense
Quarterback
I can't say anything about Favre that the national media has not already said. He still has all of the physical tools to play quarterback in the NFL. Right now, I would place him in the top 1/3 of all QBs based solely on their physical tools. His arm is as strong as ever. His mobility, although not what it once was, is still more than adequate. It comes down to one thing with Favre - DECISION MAKING.
Now, I heard something the other day on TV (from Shannon Sharpe of all people) that I totally agree with. Favre gets blasted last season for "taking too many risks", yet he has spent his entire career taking "too many risks". The difference is that Favre now does not have the support to back up his mistakes. All Favre and Packer fans know that with Brett you have to take the good with the bad. He will make a play that will "WOW" you, and then turn around and make a play that makes you cringe. That is his game for better, or for worse. The difference is that now the bad plays seem to occur more frequent than the good plays. Favre does not have a defense that can make a stop inside their own 30 to hold the opposition to a FG or get the ball back. He does not have a reliable running game that will generate over 100 yards a game. He does not have an experienced receiving corp. that that he trusts and understands. He does not have offensive line continuity like he had 4-5 years ago.
Basically, this team needs Favre to play mistake free football to win, and Favre does not, nor has he ever played mistake free football. Favre is the barometer of this team; his success is determined by the success of his teammates. He has the ability to make an average team great if his teammates play average. Last season and so far this season they have not.
Rating B+
Running Back
I remember about 2-3 seasons ago when all of the media spouted that the Packers where Ahman Green's team, and no longer Favre's team. 3 years later, Green is a shell of his 2002 form and Favre is basically the same player. Does this mean that the team is a reflection on Green's performance? Personally, I think this team can be successful without him, if someone else can fill the void. This has won without a premier running back, but never without a successful running game.
I have a feeling this is going to be a running back by "committee" season. Green will start and get 10-15 touches a game. Gado will get 7-10 touches and Herron with 5-7 touches (note, this includes passes, etc. not just carries). This team can make up for its lack of YPC by getting the backs more involved in the passing game, especially screen passes. The screen pass was a staple of the Holmgren GB offense, which was somewhat abandoned during the Sherman era, although it could be run effectively at times (especially to Henderson for 7-12 yards on a 3rd and long). Since there is no one lead back, each back will have to carry the load when in the game. I really like Herron. I think he will eventually pass Gado on the depth chart. He has much better hands, and a good relationship with Favre. He could be a breakout player this season.
Rating C
Wide Receivers
This is the thinnest corp. this team has started the season with since I can remember. 4 receivers, each with distinct holes in their game.
Driver is the perfect #2 guy. He is gritty, tough, makes the catch on the slant route, has great hands and is extremely consistent. However, he does not have breakaway speed or size. He cannot go up and make the big sideline catch, or draw the pass interference call. This is what separates him from being a #1.
Jennings is very good, but very raw. Statistics show that most rookie receivers don't make an impact in the NFL. The only 2 I can name off the top of my head in the last 10 years are Moss and Bolden. He is Driver light to me. He has #1 potential but we won't see it this year. If he can compliment Driver well, make 45 catchers and hold on to the ball, he will have had a great season.
Ferguson is worthless. All Style, no substance. He has been given every opportunity to make a name for himself and has failed at every stop. To be honest, the only reason he is on the team is that they do not have anyone better. He would not be on the roster on 2/3 of the teams in the NFL. He has flashes of something, and then drops a wide-open pass. He refuses to go up and fight for the ball. He lets DBs intimidate him. I saw at least 9 of Favres INTs that were passes intended for Ferguson that he refused to fight for. This will be his last season in Green & Gold
I don't know much about Martin. He is tall (6'4") and fairly athletic. I am not expecting much.
There is talk that the Pack will sign Koren Robinson. This move makes sense, although I am not sure I want a guy like him on my team. I mean, for God's sake Minn cut him. I am not sure he fit's McCarthy's definition of "Packer People". However, if it is at a low risk, which is prob the case (also why they are waiting until after week one, so they are not on the hook for the entire season) then it is a calculated risk
Rating D
TEs
This should be a position of strength. If the Pack is going to be success this season, Bubba Franks will have a rebound year, and David Martin will stay healthy for a whole season. I think by about week 3, we will see a lot of 2 TE sets. McCarthy says the Pack will have a renewed focus on the TE passing game. I hope he is right
Rating A-
Offensive Line
This is the biggest weakness on the team (hence why we will see a lot of 2 TE, max protect sets). Starting 2 rookie guards cannot be the most re-assuring thing in the world for Favre. I think they will get better as the season progresses. If the line stays healthy for the entire season they will be fine. If one guy goes (especially either Tauscher or Clifton) this group is screwed. Big time.
Rating D
Defense
Defensive Line
Next to the offensive line, this is the worst group on the team. The reason is this: THEY SUPPLY NO PRESSURE ON THE QB. Now, I know Bob Sanders intention was not to show much of the blitz packages during the preseason, but if they do not blitz LBs during the regular season they will be screwed as the opposing QB will pick them apart because their will be no freaking pressure. KGB is a pass rushing specialist that gets an elite DE contract. The problem is he is not elite, and because he has to play 1st, and 2nd downs, instead of just 3rd he cannot get to the QB. I like KGB, but he is a limited down DE making elite money, which means until his contract is up, the Pack will not be investing in another DE. Kampman just got his money too. He is an average overachiever, nothing more. He will make a few plays, he will miss a few. He is not great, only average, and so far this preseason he has done nothing to warrant the contract given. Pickett is better than Grady Jackson in regards to stamina and ability, but has been a career underachiever, and the mix at the other DT only shows that they have no true #2 DT.
Rating C-
Linebackers
This group is one of the few areas that is cause for optimism. I love AJ Hawk. I think he has exactly what this team misses on the defensive end, which is playmaking ability. To be successful, this team will have to generate turnovers, and Hawk has the ability to do such. Barnett is solid, but is act is getting old. He has never reached the elite MLB level, and if he does not this season, then it is time to show him the door. I really like Abdul Hodge. I think he has many intangibles, just like Hawk. Some guys are just football players, and Hodge is just a football player. If he is not playing opposite Hawk by midseason I would be shocked, unless they move Barnett for him to take over the middle. Poppinga and Taylor are both very solid, but not spectacular. I am intrigued by Poppinga because of his ability to hit and fly to the ball. He is a "high motor" guy and will bring a lot of enthusiasm. Hopefully his effort will translate to defensive opportunities.
Rating A
Secondary
One guy is the key to this group, and it is not Charles Woodson. It is Marquand Manuel. This guy was brought in because he a good leader and very bright. He is not a playmaker. He is not extremely athletic. He is supposed to make plays because he is intelligent, smart, and reads defensives well. If preseason is any indicator, he is about as bright as a box of rocks. He did not grasp the defensive scheme, let alone what the offense was trying to accomplish. He got burned more than toast. He also missed most of the preseason and will be rusty for the first 2-3 games.
Manuel is supposed to free up Nick Collins and allow him to be LeRoy Butler like. Collins was drafted because he was a playmaker in college. He was not last season because of all the secondary flux last season. I good barometer of the defense is Collins success.
Woodson will be fine. I am not worried about his preseason. I just wanted him to get to the regular season in one piece.
Harris is the most consistent performer on the defensive side of the ball (much like Driver on the offensive side). You know what you are going to get and are rarely disappointed.
On a side note, please get rid of Ahmad Carroll. I think it has safely been enough time to call him a bust. He is immature and penalty prone. This defense cannot afford to make mistakes. They are not good enough to overcome them. Carroll is a walking mistake.
Rating B+
Special Teams
Punter
I was glad they kept Ryan over Sander. Sander was a spare. Ryan had a great performance against Tennessee and I expect good things from him
Rating C
Kicker
A team loses 7 games by 7 points or less. Solution. Let the most accurate kicker in team history go and sign an unknown. Letting Longwell go was a purely financial move. I have nothing against Dave Rayner, but I don't think he'll be around by week 8.
Rating F
Punt / Kick Return
When the Pack has been success they have had solid return games. Chatman was a spare, so I am not really disappointed in his departure. Their solution, Cory Rodgers, was a major bust. So they are down to Woodson and Jennings on Punt Returns, and Gado, Herron, and Martin as kick returner's. This is another reason Koren Robinson is a fit.
Rating D
Best case scenario (wishful thinking) is that the Packers go 10-6, make the wild card, and Favre gets one more shot in the playoffs. The chances of this happening are not good though. Realistically, this team is somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7. They will be inconsistent the first half of the season, and then settle down the second half. Here is my season prediction game by game
vs Chicago - Loss
vs New Orleans - Win
at Det - Loss
at Philadelphia - Loss
vs St. Louis - Loss
Miami - Loss
vs Arizona - Win
Buffalo - Win
Minnesota - Loss
vs New England - Loss
Seattle - Loss
vs NYJ - Win
San Francisco - Win
vs Detroit - Win
vs Minnesota - Win
Chicago - Win
Final Record 8-8, exactly at .500
I wish the Pack the best of luck this season. Please prove me wrong
Denver Broncos Schedule
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