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Since John Elway (also known as the greatest quarterback who ever lived) retired, the Denver Broncos have been in no-man’s land.
I don’t mean that no one has proven worthy as Elway’s rightful heir, though obviously that’s true. More, the Broncos have tried to balance the needs of building for the future against keeping hope for the present.
Considering how long some teams take to rebuild, the Broncos have done a good job maintaining a winning team. But considering the demands of both the future and the present leaves us with bizarre drafts like the one we’ve just witnessed.
Obvious example: our first-round pick, Jay Cutler, the former Vanderbilt quarterback. Cutler, of course, was considered one of the top three QB prospects in the draft. His selection is curious, though, considering Jake Plummer not only led us to the AFC championship game last year, but became the first passer to beat Tom Brady in the playoffs.
What’s my take on Cutler? Honestly, I’m not sure. He’s clearly more athletic than Matt Leinart. And while he wasn’t all that successful in terms of wins in college, he was playing for Vanderbilt. Likewise, his statistics are pretty run-of-the-mill: Leinart’s passes routinely went for longer gains. That's odd, consdering how many have praised Cutler's arm strength. So is the numerical disparity due to Leinart’s superior receivers, or is Leinart fundamentally a better passer than Cutler? I don’t know.
Quarterback’s an odd pick for a team in our spot. Yet if Cutler becomes a top performer at the most valuable position in the game, then the pick was worth it no matter whom we passed on.
And there are good reasons for optimism. Young quarterbacks usually struggle. Is that because they’re young, or because they play for terrible teams? Think of this: the rare quarterbacks who, in recent years, have enjoyed early-career success-guys like Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Carson Palmer-played for solid teams and, more importantly, received fabulous coaching.
I have complete confidence in Mike Shanahan’s ability to mold quarterbacks. John Elway, Bubby Brister, and Jake Plummer were all most effective playing for Shanahan. Elway was a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer before Shanahan came to town, yet still made dramatic statistical improvement his last few seasons. Brian Griese didn’t really pan out, but the Broncos had the former Michigan passer, weak of arm and will, in the Pro Bowl by his third season. I think his failings are clearly his own. The coaching staff’s only mistake was sticking with him for too long.
So while other players could have filled more immediate needs, Cutler may become a fine passer in Denver for years to come.
Our second-round trade for Javon Walker was a masterful move, assuming he’s in good enough health to produce. Walker’s career stats show both annual improvement and an ability to catch the deep ball. He’s a lot like Ashley Lelie, except he can catch. (And he likes money-while Lelie is missing out on a $100,000 bonus this year for not working out with the team, Walker was famously blasted by Brett Favre for wanting more money last year. Too bad for Walker it didn’t happen this season, now that everyone questions what kind of team player Favre is.)
In the third round the Broncos selected tight end Tony Scheffler of Western Michigan. I have little to say but that he’s big and atheltic. He shouldn’t start right away or anything, but we’re solid enough at the position that we have a little time for him to develop.
At the end of the first day of the draft the Broncos had made improvements solely to their passing game. After Brady and Roethlisberger picked up huge chunks through the air on us in the playoffs, I would have thought stopping the pass would be a greater priority. What do you think? Did the Broncos have a good first day or did they blow it?
There aren't many RB that didn't have their situation altered in some way during the offseason. Several top backs lost key members of their offense or changed teams, and others had off-field problems. Don't make the mistake of drafting a player because of his name or recent history. Do the homework and find the bargain buys. These guys are not the bargain buys.
1. Tiki Barber -- New York Giants -- He was one of my bust picks last year, and he produced one of the best yardage seasons in NFL history. That means he'll automatically be ranked too high. He's 31 now, and his workload has increased each of the last three seasons, including 411 touches last year. That's too many for an older back, and this is the year he starts to break down. Many publications have him as the #4 or #5 overall player... I think you can do better by trading down for more value.
2. Corey Dillon -- New England Patriots -- Dillon turned in a good season last year when he was on the field, scoring 12 TD in 12 games. His overall fantasy numbers looked good, but they masked the truth. He averaged only 3.5 yards per carry, and his effectiveness in short yardage situations declined. The Pats drafted Laurence Maroney to take his place, and that might happen this year. Dillon will still be the goal line back, but if you are looking for a good starter, look somewhere else. If you do pick Dillon, make sure to back him up with Maroney.
3. Ron Dayne -- Denver Broncos -- Mike Shanahan says that Dayne is his #1 guy right now. Don't believe that will last long. Dayne hasn't made a habit of being very good, and his 3.7 yards per carry career average won't cut it in Denver. With Tatum Bell waiting to erupt as a superstar, I can't see how Shanahan will give more than 5-10 carries per game to Dayne. That being said, it is Denver, and anything can happen...
4. T.J. Duckett -- Atlanta Falcons -- With any luck, the Falcons will trade Duckett to someone who can give him more carries. He has a terrible yards per carry average, and he's not good catching passes out of the backfield. He does have 31 career TD in 54 games, but someone always looks at his freakish body and touchdown totals and picks him too high. Usually I'm that person, but not this year. With draft pick Jerious Norwood on board, and Warrick Dunn signed to an extension, Duckett's role appears to be diminishing. Draft him late and hope he gets dealt.
5. Willis McGahee -- Buffalo Bills -- It's hard to put him here, seeing that he's rushed for almost 2400 yards in his first two seasons. I just don't like what Buffalo is doing on the offensive side of the ball. They had a chance to get a better WR to complement Lee Evans, and ended up with Peerless Price. Unless this is 2002 all over again, the Price thing won't be too successful. With problems at QB and an average offensive line, McGahee's numbers could plateau at about 1400-1500 total yards and 6-8 TD. That's not too bad, but he's not a top-10 choice with those numbers. If he's your RB1, make sure your #2 is strong.
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