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2006 NFL Draft Preview
By Matt Severance
WagerWeb Contributing Writer
The NFL Draft is upon us this weekend, a near Woodstock-like event unto itself, although this generally happens in your living room.
A quick primer on Draft weekend:
1) Don't believe anything your team says heading into the draft. Sometimes where there's smoke, it's just smoke.
2) Everyone is thrilled to get who they get, since they had that player ranked higher on their board than where they picked him.
3) Jets fans will boo at some point.
So send the wife/girlfriend away for the weekend, pull up a couch and some carbs, and here's how the first round could go on Saturday. Here is what the teams could (or are widely expected) to do and what those teams should do, in one man's opinion. (What did people do before the Internet?!)
1. Houston. Could: Reggie Bush, RB, Southern Cal. Should: Bush. Do Texans, who already have Domanick Davis, really need a running back? No, they have other pressing needs, especially on the offensive line, but some are calling Bush the next Barry Sanders or Gale Sayers.
2. New Orleans. Could: Mario Williams, DE, N.C. State. Should: Trade down and take A. J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State. Saints have a solid defensive line as is. Hawk has been compared to a better version of another former Buckeye linebacker, Chris Spielman.
3. Tennessee. Could: Matt Leinart, QB, Southern Cal. Should: Leinart. Question is, will Titans get a chance at him? Jets could leapfrog Tennessee into Saints' spot and steal the former Heisman Trophy winner away. If that happens, Titans should grab Texas QB Vince Young, sit him a year or two behind Billy Volek, and then reap the rewards.
4. N.Y. Jets. Could: D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia. Should: Trade up with Saints and get Matt Leinart. Think Leinart might be a star in the Big Apple? He already owns Hollywood and is arguably the fourth-most famous quarterback in America right now, behind Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Brett Favre. Oh, he's good too. Yeah, Jets have QBs Chad Pennington and Patrick Ramsey, but one is brittle and one is unproven.
5. Green Bay. Could: A. J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State. Should: Trade down and acquire more picks. Packers have plenty of holes, it seems none of their wide receivers want to play for them, and Brett Favre can't even decide what day it is. If they stay at No.5, look for Pack to take best defensive player available, Hawk or Mario Williams.
6. San Francisco. Could: Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland. Would help speed the maturation of second-year QB Alex Smith (think Niners wish they had waited until this year to draft their franchise QB? Smith would've ranked below Matt Leinart, Vince Young, and Jay Cutler). Should: Davis a good pick, but if A. J. Hawk or Mario Williams are on the board, San Francisco should jump as its defense needs help everywhere.
7. Oakland. Could: Vince Young, QB, Oakland. Should: Young. Raiders are another team that could use multiple picks by trading down (with Dolphins? Vikings?), but how can Oakland turn down Young here? Oakland seemingly drafted its QB of the future last year in Arizona State's Andrew Walter, but Al Davis loves to make a splash.
8. Buffalo. Could: Broderick Bunkley, DT, FSU. This seems to be the consensus pick for Bills, but this pick is also in play for teams wanting Vince Young or Vandy QB Jay Cutler if they are still there. Should: Bunkley. He's one of draft's high-risers.
9. Detroit. Could: Knowing Matt Millen, another wide receiver with the first pick. We assume Millen's not that stupid, so figure the best defensive back available, either Texas' Michael Huff or Virginia Tech's Jimmy Williams. Should: Lions need to focus on their defensive secondary, so either Huff or Williams works.
10. Arizona. Could: Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt. Kurt Warner just got a three-year deal, but does anyone think he'll last that long? Should: Cards are pretty loaded on offense and Cutler wouldn't help this year, so they need to look to defense and take whichever DB Lions don't: Michael Huff or Jimmy Williams.
11. St. Louis. Could: Ernie Sims, LB, FSU. Should: Sims or USC OT Winston Justice. Rams could grab Cutler if he's available, but defense definitely is the pressing need, with offensive line right behind.
12. Cleveland. Could: Kamerion Wimbley, DE/LB, FSU. He would play outside linebacker in NFL. Should: Ernie Sims if he's available. Browns could use him to anchor the defensive front. Oregon NT Haloti Ngata also a possibility.
13. Baltimore. Could: Haloti Ngata, NT, Oregon. Nose tackle is a need position with the loss of Maake Kemoeatu. Should: Team hoping Ngata or Ernie Sims falls here, but if not Ohio State safety Donte Whitner would pair nicely with Ed Reed.
14. Philadelphia. Could: Chad Jackson, WR, Florida. Should: Jackson. Strong showing made him top-rated receiver, and Iggles need to replace a certain No. 81.
15. Denver (from Atlanta). Could: Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State. Should: Holmes. Broncos need receiver help with Rod Smith aging and Ashley Lelie usually underperforming. They may prefer Chad Jackson and trade ahead of Philly.
16. Miami. Could: Donte Whitner, S, Ohio State. Should: Rumors are that Nick Saban lusts after Vince Young and that Fins could trade up as high as No. 7 to get him if he falls. Otherwise, hometown WR Sinorice Moss of the Hurricanes would be a big help to Chris Chambers.
17. Minnesota. Could: Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa. Should: Trade up and get one of the three franchise quarterbacks, as Vikes have been rumored to be exploring.
18. Dallas. Could: Jason Allen, S/CB, Tennessee. Should: Allen. Cowboys want someone to anchor defensive backfield with Roy Williams.
19. San Diego. Could: Winston Justice, OT, Southern Cal. Should: Team absolutely needs a wide receiver to help Philip Rivers. So either trade up for WRs Chad Jackson or Santonio Holmes or grab Sinorice Moss.
20. Kansas City. Could: Johnathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina. Should: The Chiefs have a perpetual need on defense, so just about anyone on that side of the ball helps.
21. New England. Could: Tye Hill, CB, Clemson. Should: Antonio Cromartie, CB, FSU. Patriots have shown they are never afraid to take a chance, and Cromartie fits the bill: huge upside but missed last season with an injury.
22. Denver (from Washington). Could: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis. Should: Williams is second-best back and getting him here is value. Plus, Mike Shanahan loves to collect running backs.
23. Tampa Bay. Could: Marcus McNeill, OT, Auburn. Should: Eric Winston, OT, Miami, Fla. Bucs re-signed two of their own offensive linemen and thus could look defense here, but Winston two years ago was projected as a Top 5 pick. Bucs may be able to move down and get him. Team also may look to move up for USC's Winston Justice.
24. Cincinnati. Could: Antonio Cromartie. Should: Cromartie. If Pats and/or Bucs don't jump on him, Bengals get a cornerback with Top 10 talent.
25. N.Y. Giants. Could: Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio State. Should: Giants, if they sign LaVar Arrington, then may look to cornerback, perhaps Miami's Kelly Jennings.
26. Chicago. Could: Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia. Should: Pope. Bears seemingly have been looking for a tight end since Ditka.
27. Carolina. Could: Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota. Most mock drafts have Panthers grabbing a future replacement for DeShaun Foster. Should: Marcedes Lewis, TE, UCLA. Would open up the field even more for Steve Smith.
28. Jacksonville. Could: Demeco Ryans, LB, Alabama. Should: Jags going for the best available player here. If TEs Marcedes Lewis or Leonard Pope fall here, watch for Jags to pounce.
29. N.Y. Jets (from Denver). Could: LenDale White, RB, Southern Cal. Should: Jets need a running back in worst way, and White worth the risk even with his injury.
30. Indianapolis. Could: Joseph Addai, RB, LSU. Should: Addai. Best RB on the board likely to go here as Edgerrin James’ replacement.
31. Seattle. Could: Ashton Youboty, CB, Ohio State. Should: Youboty is the best CB left and Seahawks get to address their need area, although they could reach for a guard here to replace Steve Hutchinson.
32. Pittsburgh. Tambi Hall, DE, Penn State. Should: Maurice Stovall, WR, Notre Dame. Is Stovall a reach? Perhaps. But Steelers need to replace Antwaan Randle El, and Stovall showed flashes of big-time talent.
T’s take: The Broncos seem to do what Al Davis and the Raiders want to do: Just win, baby. And this year should be no exception. I like the moves they’ve made in the off-season, bringing in Javon Walker and drafting Jay Cutler. I’ve never been a big Plummer fan, but he’s serviceable in the rat’s (Shanahan’s) system.
Philip Rivers. Has he learned watching from the sidelines? We’ll see. I like San Diego’s defense better than I do Kansas City’s, so I’m picking LT, Antonio Gates, and San Diego to finish ahead of the Chiefs. I’m not a big Herm Edwards guy, either. I must be racist or something.
Let’s see. What overvalued, inconsistent veteran did the Raiders sign this year? Let’s see there’s Aaron Brooks … Tyrone Poole … Need I say more? The Raiders are a mess. They’ve got some players with individual talent, but this is a team gameâ€"with multiple phases, including defense! Besides, what does Art Shell know now that he didn’t know ten years ago? Nothing, that’s what.
Predicted order of finish:
Denver
San Diego
Kansas City
Oakland
E's take: I'm still awaiting the defensive guru that devises a scheme that can consistently thwart Denver's one-cut downhill running game. Sure, the Broncos play almost dirty, with devious cut-blocking techniques, but can anyone argue that Shanahan hasn't perfected an NFL running system? Mike Bell is the latest 'luckiest running back on the face of the earth for at least one season'. Can he cop 1,000 yards? Ask Reuben Droughns, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, or Terrell Davis. Tatum "The Original" Bell is an explosive change of pace back, who, when getting around 10-12 carries a game, can break one at any time.
The addition of Javon Walker makes Jake Plummer look better on paper, and if The Snake keeps his mistakes down again, look for Denver to roll to another AFC West title.
The Bolts are back! Well, almost. Philip "One L" Rivers is a giant unknown going into this season, but he has one of the best backfields available to help him win. LaDanian Tomlinson's great receiving skills ensure that Rivers will always have someone to go to if he gets into trouble, and Michael Turner might be one of the most talented backups in the AFC. Rivers will also have Antonio Gates eating up the middle, which will allow for possible coverage busts on the outside. The only question is whether or not Rivers can read the defense quickly enough. The lack of a true WR1 hurts the offense's vertical potential. It remains to be seen whether or not rookie wideout Vincent Jackson can complement a possession-receiver like Keenan McCardell.
Shawne Merriman anchors an aggressive D that will keep the Chargers in any game. Look for the Bolts to compete for a playoff spot.
The Chief's O-line is a mess. Retirements and injuries have really decimated the corps. Trent Green is aged. Samie Parker is a WR4 disguised as a 2. Herm Edwards didn't win in New York. The upgraded defense is still league average. Larry Johnson is the lone bright spot here, but might have a tougher time if the run-blocking from the ad-hoc line doesn't improve. The Chiefs stink, but will still find a way to win from 8 or 9 games this year, and sniff the playoff chase into December.
Aaron Brooks brings his mad turnover-and-lack-of-pocket-discipline-skillz to Oakland, where the Raiders "Commitment to Excrement" is in its 15th season (or whatever). It's hard to believe this team was in the Super Bowl three seasons ago, but then again, they got smacked around good by a superior Tampa Bay squad. The presence of Randy Moss automatically should make Brooks a better QB, but Brooks' lackadaiscal style of play minimizes his athleticism. He's like Kerry Collins if Kerry Collins looked like Martin Lawrence. And the Raiders just rid themselves of Kerry Collins!
LaMont Jordan is a 1,000 yard back, but Art Shell is insistent on working Justin Fargas into the running game more. I'm not sure any of this matters because the Raiders still lack significant defensive depth, and are still paying Warren Sapp way too much money to stand around wheezing all game.
Predicted order of finish:
Denver
San Diego
Kansas City
Oakland
Denver Broncos Schedule
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