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With the NFL season rapidly approaching, I felt it was time to provide some predictions. Mostly, considerations were based on last year's record, incoming/departing free agents, coaching changes, and (most of all) my gut. Let's first look at last year's playoff teams, and determine how many, if any, will make a repeat trip to the playoffs:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Negative Factors: Jerome Bettis retired. Ben Rothlisberger crashed his motorcycle. Antwan Randle El left for Washington. Bill Cower wants to live in Raleigh after the season (alright, that's speculation).
Analysis: Cower brings back a brutal defense in tact, and the offense should be just good enough to keep them off of the field.
Final Answer: Yes
2. Seattle Seahawks
Key Negative Factors: Mike Holmgren is a whiner. Hutchinson is gone. Secondary did not improve in off-season.
Analysis: The 'SuperBowl Loser' Jinx aside, this team is essentially loaded in all positions.
Final Answer: Yes
3. Carolina Panthers
Key Negative Factors: Umm... none? If you want to nitpick, you could say that Keyshawn might be a disruption. Or, that the running back position has suspect depth.
Analysis: This team is stacked. They have it all - swarming defense, QB leader, playmakers at the skill positions, rock solid coaching..
Final Answer: Yes
4. Denver Broncos
Key Negative Factors: Defense is aging quickly, and can leave Bailey on an island at times. Offense is aging quickly (see a pattern here?). No threats at the #2 WR position. RB situation is a mess.
Analysis: Mike Shanahan can coach.. the question is, does his ego outweigh his ability? I have to question anyone that drafts Maurice Clarett.. but, so far so good.
Final Answer: No
5. Indianapolis Colts
Key Negative Factors: Edge is gone.. Edge is gone.. Edge is gone.. Rhodes and Addai combined might have Edge-like ability. Manning an Dungy are too nice to win the big one.
Analysis: You can't argue with Manning's regular season track record. Rhodes is servicable enough to keep the D honest.
Final Answer: Yes
6. New England Patriots
Key Negative Factors: Decimated over last few years by injuries, especially on defense, where depth and talent are quickly becoming a factor. Clutch kicker - gone. The sole proven WR is holding out. Dillon is out of gas.
Analysis: Little Bill is a master of game strategy - but, if your strategy has to be "throw enough to keep us in the game", you might be in trouble. Richard Seymour is the last playmaker on D.
Final Answer: No
7. Cincinnati Bengals
Key Negative Factors: Can't stay away from legal trouble. Palmer still not fully recovered (mentally OR physically). Defense is average. Released quality backup QB Kitna.
Analysis: Lewis did an amazing job last year - with very few distractions. He has plenty this year.. and he may start the year with Anthony Wright? In a division where they play the Steelers and suddenly-improved Ravens twice in '06 might be a death sentence.
Final Answer: No
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Negative Factors: Jimmy Smith retired. Below average RB situation. Leftwich is an underacheiver. Akin Ayodele departed.
Analysis: Jack Del Rio has gotten a lot from his team, and is loaded with defensive talent, particularly on the D-line. The question is - can Leftwich finally show us what he did at Marshall and overshadow a suspect backfield?
Final Answer: Yes
9. Chicago Bears
Key Negative Factors: Historically up and down team (see: 2001 Bears). Already QB and RB controversies, unsettled starters. No goto WRs.
Analysis: The Bears have arguably the best D in the NFL. If Lovie can get his offense settled, and Grossman can stay on the field, they could be even more dangerous with both Benson and Jones - especially considering the divisional competition.
Final Answer: Yes
10. Washington Redskins
Key Negative Factors: Brunell played over his head last year and cannot effectively keep the D honest against the pass. New offense to learn may also slow the team. Sean Taylor is a distraction and has grossly underachieved.
Analysis: Joe Gibbs is a great coach, but can he survive a brutal schedule against most likely the toughest division in football? Brunell is aging, and has little help behind him.
Final Answer: No
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Negative Factors: Defense is old and slower. Cadillac is injury prone. Few threats other than Galloway, who overachieved last year
Analysis: I think the Bucs have potential in the NFC South, with only Carolina a better team. Simms seems to have grasped the offense, and Michael Clayton will be fully back from injury. The D has one more year in them, if Gruden has anything to say about it.
Final Answer: Yes
12. New York Giants
Key Negative Factors: Eli still makes too many mistakes. Barber is 31. O-Line is average. D secondary is horrible.
Analysis: the G-men have most of the pieces to be a very good team. Sam Madison is beyond his prime, but could keep the secondary stable enough to avoid a first round loss again.
Final Answer: Yes
So, we have 8 returning teams - 3 in the AFC, 5 in the NFC. Now the question is.. who are the replacements? Several teams come to mind - and with this much parity any thing is possible - but here are the most likely candidates:
AFC
1. Miami Dolphins
Key Positive Factors: Saban. More talent/stability at QB. Weak AFC East schedule.
Analysis: Culpepper, if he can return to form (which I think he can) gives the 'Fins instant credibility. Ronnie Brown is going to be a stud, and Chambers is a world beater with the right field general. The defense is average, but still has Zack Thomas and a few playmakers to keep the balance right.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Key Positive Factors: More talent/stability at QB (notice a theme here?). Defense is still very good, with some serious playmakers in Reed, Suggs and Ray Lewis.
Analysis: McNair is a significant upgrade if he can stay on the field. The defense has more than enough talent to carry this team, but they will no longer need to compensate for an erratic offense.
3. San Diego Chargers
Key Positive Factors: LT. Also, LT. Gates has no equal at the TE position and can win a game on his own. Defense has playmakers and was #1 against the run in '05.
Analysis: The jury is still out on Phillip Rivers, but as long as he doesn't stink (I don't think he will) he should not keep the Chargers out of the playoffs.
NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys
Key Positive Factors: Rock-solid D with playmakers galore. Owens makes offense better. Parcells is master motivator.
Analysis: If Tuna can control T.O., the offense may catch up to the rising D.. Demarcus Ware is a star in the making, and if Bledsoe can stay vertical with the O-line upgrades, there is no reason this team can't win the NFC East.
That rounds out the playoff teams... there are several teams that I considered, but just couldn't get over some of the holes in their overall plan:
Arizona Cardinals: Edge is nice, but O-line is grade-D meat.
Kansas City Chiefs: Sorry Herm - slow down, ball-control offense is not what this team needed. Try some defense.
Atlanta Falcons: Vick can't read a defense. Coaches won't let him run. Why is he making 15 mil?
There you have it - the 2006 playoffs. Coming soon - playoff winners and SuperBowl Champs.
It always seems special and exciting when you go to the Phillies. There's a certain atmosphere about the park, especially when it's full due to fireworks, bobble heads or (gulp) general excitement about the team. And there's only one team that can manage to take most of that excitement away. Yes, there were moments, but when 45,025 people are watching baseball, there should never be a dull moment, and there were plenty last night.
At least there were some good fireworks off the field.
Perhaps Charlie Manuel summed it up best:
I don't know if it's you guys or the players or what, but somebody out there has
got something against us. Or somebody's not living right. If you guys are very
religious, please go to church. Pray for us.So there ya have it. That's pretty much what needed to be said. The Phillies are one loss away from dropping to 10 games below .500. losing their ninth straight series, losing 12 out of their last 15 home games and going 6-21 since winning their last series. It simply can't get any worse. This is the bottom right here.
Just take last night's first inning for example. A very uncharacteristic Chase Utley error on a dead double-play ball should have gotten the Phils out of the inning. For a reason why to like Chase Utley, posted by Balls Sticks & Stuff, click here. Above is one of the few reasons not to like him. After that, a huge metal error on what should have been another double play where neither Utley nor Lieber covered first base. The, on a fly ball to right, Bobby Abreu fired a perfect one-hopper to home plate that Chris Coste simply missed the ball and Sean Casey scored to make it 2-0.
To his credit, after the first, Jon Lieber pitched lights-out. He seemed to be in command of the entire line, albeit a Pirates line-up, but I was still impressed that he turned in a quality start. Unfortunately, so did Ian Snell. He stifled Phillies hitters, who did have some chances (like when Abreu worked two led-off walks in the fourth and sixth) but nothing happened. He allowed only three hits in seven innings. The Phils only had four hits in the game.
That's probably part of why the crowd started doing the much-hated (by me) wave. But they did it in the eighth inning once the Phils had cut the lead to one run, and runners were on base. Yeah, that's the time you want to divert your attention to anything but the ball game.
Unbelievable. I will never do the wave as long as I live. In fact, I recommend buying these T-shirts and wearing them whenever you feel like the wave might break out.
So all of the momentum that the Phils had was taken away because the crowd wasn't in the game. Rick White did manage to get out of the ninth alive, and it looked like the home team might have a chance. Then Pat Burrell came up to pinch hit, stuck out, and all hope was lost. It was just a bad at-bat. He really needs to get better quick if we have any shot.
Despite everything (losing to the Pirates -- according to my friend's 13 year old cousin, the Phils lost because Pirates of the Caribbean 2 came out that night, so it was their day -- four hits all games, sloppy defense, and the wave) I still had a great time at the ballpark. For some reason, I always do.
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The Home Run Derby field of eight was announced tonight.
For the second straight year, a Phillie made the cut. Let's hope Ryan Howard's swing doesn't get destroyed by the contest just like Abreu's did. Last time I checked he still only has eight homers this season. Spent 41 of his career dingers last year... it's a damn shame. I don't think the same will happen to Howard though, he's a natural power-hitter and players like Sosa and McGwire really didn't see a drop-off in homeruns after they won Derby's, so I think he'll be fine.
Anyway, I figure since I got the World Cup championship match right, I'll give the derby a whirl. Here's my predicted order of finish and how many homeruns (total).
8) David Wright - 3
7) Jermaine Dye - 5
6) Miguel Cabrera - 9
5) Lance Berkman - 14
4) Troy Glaus - 17
3) David Ortiz - 26
2) Ryan Howard - 27
1) Miguel Tejada - 32
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Part SIX of 30 Teams in 30 Days:
American Football Conference
Western Division
Team six: Denver Broncos
Overall: So last year the Broncos were good. Really, really good. 13-3 to be exact. They got past the defending champions in the playoffs, but fell to the eventual champs in the next round. This season, the Broncos added a big receiving threat in Javon Walker (who's currently injured) but when he returns, he'll be a huge boost. The Broncos biggest loss is probably that of Mike Anderson, who provided solid rushing when it was needed most last year. But if you're worried about the running game on any team coached by Mike Shanahan, you're just plain silly.
Passing: Jake "The Snake" Plummer is still the main man, but he could be feeling a little (or a lot) of heat now that his team drafted Vanderbilt product, Jay Cutler, with the 13th pick. Plummer will be entering his 11th NFL season and you have to wonder how much more he has left in the tank and when the Brett Favre Syndrome will come into effect. Plus he's got road rage, and that's never good.
Rushing: Like I said, Shanahan can make any running back good and it's not like he has junk to work with. Tatum Bell will be one of Denver's go-to guys, as he still has a lot of time to grow and improve. Ron Dayne will also tumble downfield for some years. The Broncos are also sitting pretty on six backs on their pre-season roster, so I wouldn't be too worried about their ground game.
Receiving: Okay, now this is just an awesome receiving corps. Period. Any team would be good enough with just veteran all-pro Rod Smith. Add to that budding superstar Ashley Lelie and off-season acquisition Javon Walker and you've got some serious hands. Lelie wants to be a number one receiver, so that might cause some tension, but for now, everything is good. It won't even matter if Plummer of Culter is chucking the ball up there, these guys will catch it. Rookie wide-out Brandon Marshall (Central Florida) and tight end Tony Scheffler (Western Michigan) will also look to make an impact after being selected in the second and third rounds of this year's draft.
Defense: The Broncos spent their fourth round pick on defensive end Elvis Dumervil from Louisville. The pass rush was one area in which Denver struggled last season and the king could be a big help in that regard. John Lynch and Champ Bailey hold down the fort in the defensive backfield, threatening to intercept the ball at any time.
Special Teams: Jason Elam is the man. Never will I forget his record-tying 63 year field goal. But aside from being able to kick for distance, he's very accurate and a big reason for Denver's success last season. Aside from the kicking game, Denver is solid, but didn't return any kicks of punts for TD's last year.
Grade: A. This team has an above average offense and a very solid defense. It's hard to look past the quality and depth of this receiving unit and with Plummer still having one or two good years in him, the Broncos are most certainly the team to beat in the AFC West.
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Quote of the Day:
(I believe you've already read it... too good to not be here as well)
"I don't know if it's you guys or the players or what, but somebody out there has got something against us. Or somebody's not living right. If you guys are very religious, please go to church. Pray for us."
--Phillies Manager, Charlie Manuel
--Statman
Denver Broncos Schedule
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