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We'll never know if a 9-week layoff from competitive golf affected Tiger Woods' play at the US Open, but something did. Woods missed the cut in a major for the first time as a pro, shooting his second consecutive 76 today at Winged Foot. So my pre-tournament guess Woods would play well because he usually does, was incorrect and now inoperative.
And now I'm missing my old job, because life's empty without the instant "you moron" feedback working sportswriters receive after a prediction goes wrong. It let us know fans care.
It also lets us know fans are missing a few guesses themselves.
Nothing is less relevant to how well someone does the job of reporting and commenting on sports than picking winners. Nobody in my former racket has the byline Nostradamus. If anyone did, they'd be making big money in Vegas sports books, not lesser dough living on airplanes, press boxes, and the Marriott concierge level. Those predictions in playoff and regular season previews all newspaper run occupy about six seconds of each writer's time, and one's main concern is not picking exactly the same winners as the other writers in the section. The wonderful Norman Chad has the right idea about making picks-play it strictly for laughs. That's all they're worth.
Sportswriters make predictions for three reasons. 1. Readers love 'em, feeling it's a way to keep score on those reprobates in the press box. 2. Arguments are part of sports and sometimes you just have to take a position. It'd be a pretty weak effort to cover the Kentucky Derby and not go on the record calling a winner. Same goes for the Super Bowl. I did an annual NCAA bracket pick on Selection Sunday for the Herald. If you're supposed to know college basketball, that's mandatory. 3. This is the most dangerous one. Sometimes you get a hunch.
We will now examine both the best and worst prediction columns of my Herald career, each of which created some buzz, although, natch, the bad one drew a FAR wider audience. Each had nothing to do with my abilities. The right one was applied knowledge rewarded by dumb luck. The bad hunch was applied knowledge trumped by a team doing the unexpected. I also wrote it poorly, hence deserved to be punished.
The day of Super Bowl XXXII in 1998, the smart Mikey wrote a column predicting the Broncos would upset the Packers by the score of 31-24, and listed six statistical feats Denver had to perform to finally drag John Elway to the top of the NFL mountain. The Broncos won 31-24. They also performed five of my six numerical musts.
Smart Mikey had this moment psychic power because neither of his Herald colleagues Kevin Mannix or George Kimball were about to write that the Broncos would end the NFCs 14-game Super winning streak, and dueling picks columns on Super Sunday are a hallowed Herald tradition. I put my mind to how an upset MIGHT happen, and came up with some numbers. The final score was pulled out of thin air.
Was I smart? A little. But not too much. I'm sure the important of Terrell Davis having a big day had occured Mike Shanahan long before I wrote it. Football's complicated to do, but relatively simple to segment into power points.
Now for dumb Mikey. In December of 2003, an injury-riddled New England Patriots' team had pretty much clinched its division with a 10-game winning streak. Before the next game (against Jacksonville, I think) I declared that seeing as the playoffs were coming up, now was the time for the Pats to suffer the inevitable end of their streak. A loss would cost them nothing, and the increasing odds that burden any long winning streak would become a thing of the past before one-and-done play began.
This was not a popular sentiment. My belief, hunch, need to fill space on a Tuesday, call it what you will, was not that the Pats would derive psychic benefits from tasting defeat. I didn't believe any NFL team in our 21st century of parity could win 15 games in a row, the number the Pats needed to run the table through the Super Bowl. I had history on my side. It was as well-supported an opinion as my belief the Broncos might be able to beat up the Packers' defensive line.
I was right, too. The Pats couldn't win 15 in a row. By the time they lost their first game in 2004, their winning streak stood at 21. They were becoming one of the greatest teams ever, a team that hadn't had enough bodies for PRACTICE in October 2003.
I wasn't Smart Mikey in 1998 or Dumb Mikey in 2003. The Broncos played to their capabilities and the Packers didn't, so I looked good. The Patriots were indeed a great team, so they proved me wrong and made me look bad. And more power to them. The best part of my old job was the chance to get paid to watch greatness. Looking smart or dumb was irrelevant.
Bostonians in and out of the media waste rain forests full of oxygen discussing the manager's decisions every time the Red Sox lose. Hey, people, there's a reason they say skippers "play the percentages." The "right" decision may only have a 51 percent chance of success. If the 49 percent shot comes through, Terry Francona is NOT an idiot.
Tiger had a rough week. Too bad for him. I still believe Winged Foot and not rust was the cause of his troubles, but Woods contradicts me in public (fat chance), so be it. Maybe my next hunch will lead to a Smart Mikey revival.
I can't end without my favorite sportswriting prediction story of all time. Former Globe columnist Mike Madden was the paper's turf expert and a devout horseplayer. Still is. The day of a Derby in the early '80s, Madden wrote a column picking win, place, and show. The three nags finished in that exact order. A frickin' trifecta bet comes home in print. Amazing! Madden is a genius!
The next week I saw Mike at the old Fenway press dining room, and hastened to congratulate him on what had to be a very heavy score.
Madden looked as devastated as the little kid at the end of "The Yearling."
"Score?!" Mike wailed. "I went broke after the sixth race!"
(If you don't know racing, the Derby is always the ninth or tenth race of the day at Churchill Downs).
Disclaimer: Slam-Cut NFL picks are for entertainment purposes only. I only pick games straight up, not against the line or any of that degenerate gambler shit. And I don't do fantasy football nonsense either. Gamblers and fantasy football players are the gook on the bottom of the shoes of humanity, in my humble opinion.
Are you ready for some football?
Thursday
Miami at Pittsburgh: The debut of Fumblepepper as a Dolphin (yes, I'm a bitter Viking fan). Pittsburgh minus Bettis, Randle-El and Von Oelhoffen, and with Big Ben on the shelf. But the Steelers are at home, and they're the champs. I take Pittsburgh 17-14. Two fumbles and a pick for Daunte and his strip-mall-rehabbed knee (ha ha).
Sunday
Baltimore at Tampa Bay: Everyone expects Baltimore to be better with Steve McNair, but I don't know, I think McNair might be over-the-hill. Their D looks solid with the new kid Ngata at tackle and Ray Lewis ready to rock, however. Even so, I'm pussing out and taking Tampa at home, 14-10.
Atlanta at Carolina: So begins the umpteenth season of listening to the experts tell us Michael Vick is a great talent who needs to prove himself. How long before fans in the Big A are clamoring for highly-touted Matt Schaub to replace him? For Carolina, Steve Smith is dinged-up and may not play. With Smith in, I'd say Carolina is a lock; without Smith I'll still take them, 17-14 at home.
Denver at St. Louis: The Greatest Show on Turf is over in St. Louis, and now it's Linehan-time. He was a decent coordinator for the Vikes and Dolphins but what will he be as a head-coach? We know what Mike Shanahan is as a coach - a great offensive mind who can't win the big one without Elway on his team. He doesn't need Elway to knock off the Rams on the road, 24-17.
Buffalo at New England: No Deion Branch for New England. Troy Brown took snaps at QB in the preseason (I don't think Tom Brady's too worried). For Buffalo, it's J.P. Losman at the helm. Hmm, Losman or Brady. In New England. Uh, yeah...Patriots roll 27-10.
Philadelphia at Houston: The Texans begin the Reggie Bush era...oh wait, they took Mario Williams. For Philly it's the beginning of the post-T.O. era - is that Donavan McNabb smiling like a giddy child? Maybe he should consider the guys he has left to throw to before he gets too happy. Even a crap receiving corps like Philly's is enough to bounce the Texans, 17-13.
New Orleans at Cleveland: Here's the beginning of the Reggie Bush era. Now the questions is: how much will he actually get the ball? Ten carries tops, and maybe five catches. With Deuce McAllister still carrying most of the load and Drew Brees tossing it to Joe Horn, the Saints offense shouldn't be bad. Their defense stinks though. And it's in Cleveland so I'll take the easy way out, Browns 17-14.
Seattle at Detroit: Detroit just had an assistant coach arrested for driving naked. The fans in Motor City wish it were Matt Millen who would get arrested (and run out of town). They've got Jon Kitna now, and that's better than Joey Harrington. Seattle has Shaun Alexander though, and Matt Hasselbeck, and that great D headlined by Lofa Tatupu. The Seahawks won't romp, but they will beat Detroit, 21-14.
N.Y. Jets at Tennessee: This is definitely the stinker of the week. The Jets with a fifteen-year-old coach and a crippled QB. The Titans without Steve McNair for the first time since forever. It's in Tennessee, so I guess I'll hold my nose and take the Titans, 14-10.
Cincinnati at Kansas City: Marvin Lewis brings his caravan of felons and showboaters into K.C., with Carson Palmer back at the helm after his knee injury. K.C. has L.J., and also has H.E. as their head-coach. And K.C. never loses at Arrowhead. So I'll take the Chiefs 21-17, and 140 yards and two touchdowns for L.J. (even without Willie Roaf).
Chicago at Green Bay: Brett Favre looks like a man who isn't too sure he should've come back (especially considering that offensive line, which makes a sieve look impenetrable by comparison). Chicago still has that D, but can they run, and what kind of quarterbacking will they get (maybe they should throw Kyle Orton back in there - or not)? One feels tempted to take the Pack at home, but that Lambeau mystique, I'm afraid, is a thing of the past. So it's the Bears for me, 17-10.
Dallas at Jacksonville: T.O.'s ready to play despite missing most of the preseason. It seems unlikely that T.O. would start popping off on Drew Bledsoe in the first game, but then you never know. On the Jacksonville side - well, they're Jacksonville, they just keep plugging along, don't they? And they'll keep plugging this week too, beating Dallas 21-17 at home.
San Francisco at Arizona: The Cardinals are the fashionable pick to have a break-out year, especially with Edgerrin James on the team, and Matt Leinart waiting in the wings. But need I remind people that these are the Cardinals? The Arizona Cardinals? Of course, this week they're playing the 49ers, the absolute worst team in the NFL. Which means a week one win for Denny's gang, 17-10, and all sorts of expectations that won't amount to a hill of beans.
Indianapolis at N.Y. Giants: No Edge in Indy, no problem. Just hand it to Dominic Rhodes, who, people seem to forget, had a 1,000-yard season filling in for Edge a few years ago. And of course there's Marvin Harrison to throw it to, and Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokely, and Dallas Clark - and did I mention Payton Manning is still their QB? Of course the Giants have their own Manning, Eli. And they have Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey. And they added Lavar Arrington to a D that already included Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Giants win at home in the week's best game, 24-21.
Monday
Minnesota at Washington: The Redskins may be looking at life without Clinton Portis. Their offense wasn't so hot with him. Their D was shaky in the preseason, for what that's worth. For my beloved Vikings, it's the beginning of the Brad Childress era, which means lots of discipline and preparation. It's also the beginning of the No Randy or Daunte era, which could mean a lack of offense. The 'Skins have enough questions marks for me to justify a purely emotional pick, Vikings on the road 17-13.
San Diego at Oakland: It's Philip Rivers time for San Diego; it's Aaron Brooks time for Oakland. Rivers has barely played and I'd still rather have him than old Throw-it-Backward Brooks. And Randy's already fighting with Art Shell - big shock there. Antonio Gates and the Chargers roll the hapless Raiders, 28-10.
Denver Broncos Schedule
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