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Denver Broncos
Is Mike Shanahan arrogant to the point of recklessness when it comes to his running game? Is Dick Cheney a lousy shot? Yes and Yes. How else do explain letting Portis and Mike Anderson go, and then telling us that rookie Mike Bell is going to start over veteran Tatum Bell who had 921 yards last year and a freaking 5.3 yards per carry! He's convinced it's his system and with the right type of runner (no-name or not) he can get the production he's looking for. And you know what?, Mr. Freaky eyes may just have something. I mean how can I question the results? It's worked so far. What I don't get is why more teams don't copy the Broncos zone blocking. Anyway, if Jake Plummer has another regular season like he did last year, Denver should cruise to another Division title. Their defense is going to be really good with great linebackers and a solid secondary, so if Mr. Snake can keep the turnovers down like he did last year, the Broncos are going to be good again.
Division Prediction: 1st
Playoff Prediction: They'll make it to the 2nd playoff weekend
San Diego Chargers
Make no mistake about it, the San Diego Chargers are loaded as a team. Look at the players they have with Tomlinson, Gates, Merriman, etc. Had Brees not torn up his shoulder and had they then decided to keep him, I would be probably picking this team for the Super Bowl. But all that didn't happen and being a Drew Brees fan I am of course a little skeptical of the team's chances this year. But you know what, maybe Philip Rivers will be as good as Brees was the past couple of years or even better as they all hope and pray. Maybe he becomes exactly what they need to take it to the next level. He has what Ben Roethlisberger had when he was a first year starting QB and had success; namely a great team around him and a favorable schedule. He would be bucking the odds and that ultimately is the clincher for me. I think he needs another year before he will be able to deliver as needed. The problem with that of course is that the rest of the team is ready now.
Division Prediction: 2nd
Playoff Prediction: maybe next year
Kansas City Chiefs
First of all I don't like Herm Edwards as a coach. Nothing personal but I jut think he sucks. His slimebag exit from the Jets was on par with a Larry Brown move. Not very endearing. I don't think this team will challenge for the playoffs this year. Their defense is suspect, Trent Green is looking worse with each season and with offensive lineman abandoning ship in droves towards retirement (well, ok only two have retired but I tend to exaggerate every now and then. sue me) it's not a given that Larry Johnson will have the same success he had last season. Although I really hope Dante Hall recaptures some of his kick return magic from a couple of seasons ago.
Division Prediction: 3rd
Playoff Prediction: nope
Oakland Raiders
A couple of big problems with this team. First Al Davis is still alive and owns this team. Wait, scratch that. I'm happy Al is still kicking. Seriously. He was a very innovative owner in his time. At least that's the impression I got from a Sportcentury documentary I watched on ESPN this summer. He was a maverick, an out of the box thinker, a pretty cool guy. But now he's like 150 (sorry exaggerating again) and somebody more in tune with the times should be running this team. The other problem is the infamous Aaron Brooks. He giveth and he taketh away. I'm betting Randy Moss blows up over a lack of balls coming his way or over his head, or into the other team's arms, etc. Raider fans prepare. I like Lamont Jordan but he's got to average over 4 yards a carry this year for the Raiders to stick with him. With a defense that has some speed but lots of inexperience they are going to struggle against decent offenses. I feel bad for Art Shell. He's a good guy and actually did a good job coaching the Raiders in his last stint, but this season is going to give him ulcers. He may kick it before Al.
Division Prediction: last
Playoff Prediction: not for a while
In Texas, this is the time of year that matters: FOOTBALL SEASON. Between whinging A&M fans who think their team actually matters in the real world of college football, to Texas fans somehow convinced that their program isn't dirty, to the innumerable Cowboys fans who all know exactly what's wrong with the team after its 10-10 tie in the final (and most meaningless) preseason game. People here are so football crazy that some high school fields seat 30,000 and when the Rangers were fighting for their first-ever playoff spot in 1996, the talk radio was all about the middling Cowboys.
This year there are, or should be, expectations galore because the Cowboys are potentially one of the two best teams in the NFC. More about that later. The Monk works east to west, alphabetically in his picks.
AFC East
What's the possibility of Miami and New England rolling up 5-1 division records by sweeping the two stiffs (Jets, Bills) and splitting their matchups? How about the potential that the Jets and Bills do the same in reverse (1-5 each)? Both are highly likely.
Ultimately, this is the Patriots' division to lose because they have the best player (Brady), the best coach (Belichick) and both an offense and defense that are solid. If Corey Dillon plays better than he did last year, the Pats are 12+ game winners even without their top two receivers from 2005. Brady is the type of QB who can make chicken salad from the chicken droppings at his disposal. How else to describe a three-time Super Bowl winner with no top flight offensive talent around him (Deion Branch? Be real -- he's a #2 at best with any other team). The Pats should be a game or two better than last year, especially considering that the AFC East has an easy schedule -- each of its teams plays each team from the NFC North and AFC South.
The Dolphins are a serious wild card contender thanks to second-year RB Ronnie Brown and the signing of Daunte Culpepper. They still have a top-level defense and Belichek Jr as a coach. If Culpepper is the QB he was in 2004, the Dolphins win the division and 13 games; if he's the pre-injury Culpepper of 2005 (which was absolutely awful), the Dolphins replace him with Sage Rosenfels or the stiff du jour and scrap out 7-8 wins. If Culpepper fits somewhere in the middle of that, the 'Phins win a wild card berth.
The Jets have a new coach, no longer have their Pro Bowl center and have QB questions with no end. They passed on Matt Leinart. They will regret that for years just as they did when they picked Ken O'Brien over Dan Marino. The Bills lost their best receiver, still have no worthwhile QB option, passed on Leinart (dopes) and . . . supposedly Willis McGahee looks like the RB who rolled up huge numbers in college. If so, the Bills could win 7-8. The Jets will struggle to get more than 6.
AFC North
This division is all about the quarterbacks -- is Palmer fully healthy mentally, how much will McNair bring to the Ravens' offense, what will the Steelers get from Roethlisberger? The Steelers have had numerous injuries and issues in the off-season, the Bengals have an explosive offense but questions on defense, the Ravens have a deadly defense that needs an offense. The whole division has a tough schedule: round-robins with AFC West and NFC South.
Prediction: Bengals, Ravens, Steelers. The latter two will be in a fine race for the wild card spots. The Ravens have an edge over the Steelers because they get the Chargers and Chiefs at home.
The Browns will field a team. They will draft high next year.
AFC South
No, The Monk doesn't understand how Indianapolis is in the AFC South any more than Arizona used to be in the NFC East. That said, this division is so weak, the Colts could win it fielding nine players per play. They lost Edgerrin James, but that only matters so much. Remember, an NFL back only needs to average 56 yards per game to run up a 1,000 yard season, and Dominic Rhodes and his understudies can easily do that. Indy will be more pass-first this season, but that just means Manning will rack up bigger numbers.
Jacksonville will again have a solid season because it should sweep the other two stiffs in the division, should crush the Jets and Bills, and winning half of its other contests would mean an 11-5 record. That's wild-card worthy. Nonetheless, the Jags could be set for a fall because they play the NFC East this year and each of those teams can beat them. Overall, the Jags will again be better on paper than on the field (see AFC wild card match at New England, 2005).
The Titans are still recovering from their salary cap disaster, which they self-imposed by keeping the nucleus of their Super Bowl runner-up team from the 1999 season together as long as they could. With Kerry Collins manning the controls while Vince Young serves his apprenticeship, and an influx of some new vets, the Titans should be competitive as they prepare for next season.
The Texans stink. They passed up on Reggie Bush to sign a pass-rusher who is of questionable efficacy. They lost their starting running back. They have no offensive line. They'll be picking high in the 2007 draft.
AFC West
The Chiefs have a new coach but still lack a solid defense; the Chargers have a new QB; the Raiders brought in Jeff George. There are the three best reasons that the Broncos will win the division again.
The Broncos have everything they need to win the division, and still lack something necessary to win the AFC title -- defensive dominance, intangibles from the QB, a dependable runner (note to Mike Shanahan, the system means only so much -- you still miss Clinton Portis). That doesn't change this year. It might when the Jay Cutler era begins in 2007.
Herm Edwards is a fine motivator and practice coach, but as a gameplanner and strategist he is one of the worst in the NFL. The Chiefs have great talent: a QB who threw for 4000+ yards with no top-notch receiver and with TE Tony Gonzalez having a down year, a solid offensive line, and the best running back in the NFL. Think not? Larry Johnson scored 20 TD and rolled up 1760 yards running and didn't even start five games! And unlike Shaun Alexander, LJ is a solid receiver. Once again, the defense is subpar. And this year, the Chiefs have Edwards as their coach, not Vermeil -- and Herm will prove to be a negative in close games (just ask Jets fans).
The Chargers will end up as one of the best teams in the league, but expect a struggle early on as Phillip Rivers learns his job. Having the second best RB in the division (and conference) helps, but the defense will still be a weak spot.
The Raiders stink. Again. At least Art Shell may restore some pride and help them run off 6 wins.
AFC Champion: Patriots. The Monk is drinking the Belichick Kool-Aid.
Denver Broncos Schedule
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