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In Texas, this is the time of year that matters: FOOTBALL SEASON. Between whinging A&M fans who think their team actually matters in the real world of college football, to Texas fans somehow convinced that their program isn't dirty, to the innumerable Cowboys fans who all know exactly what's wrong with the team after its 10-10 tie in the final (and most meaningless) preseason game. People here are so football crazy that some high school fields seat 30,000 and when the Rangers were fighting for their first-ever playoff spot in 1996, the talk radio was all about the middling Cowboys.
This year there are, or should be, expectations galore because the Cowboys are potentially one of the two best teams in the NFC. More about that later. The Monk works east to west, alphabetically in his picks.
AFC East
What's the possibility of Miami and New England rolling up 5-1 division records by sweeping the two stiffs (Jets, Bills) and splitting their matchups? How about the potential that the Jets and Bills do the same in reverse (1-5 each)? Both are highly likely.
Ultimately, this is the Patriots' division to lose because they have the best player (Brady), the best coach (Belichick) and both an offense and defense that are solid. If Corey Dillon plays better than he did last year, the Pats are 12+ game winners even without their top two receivers from 2005. Brady is the type of QB who can make chicken salad from the chicken droppings at his disposal. How else to describe a three-time Super Bowl winner with no top flight offensive talent around him (Deion Branch? Be real -- he's a #2 at best with any other team). The Pats should be a game or two better than last year, especially considering that the AFC East has an easy schedule -- each of its teams plays each team from the NFC North and AFC South.
The Dolphins are a serious wild card contender thanks to second-year RB Ronnie Brown and the signing of Daunte Culpepper. They still have a top-level defense and Belichek Jr as a coach. If Culpepper is the QB he was in 2004, the Dolphins win the division and 13 games; if he's the pre-injury Culpepper of 2005 (which was absolutely awful), the Dolphins replace him with Sage Rosenfels or the stiff du jour and scrap out 7-8 wins. If Culpepper fits somewhere in the middle of that, the 'Phins win a wild card berth.
The Jets have a new coach, no longer have their Pro Bowl center and have QB questions with no end. They passed on Matt Leinart. They will regret that for years just as they did when they picked Ken O'Brien over Dan Marino. The Bills lost their best receiver, still have no worthwhile QB option, passed on Leinart (dopes) and . . . supposedly Willis McGahee looks like the RB who rolled up huge numbers in college. If so, the Bills could win 7-8. The Jets will struggle to get more than 6.
AFC North
This division is all about the quarterbacks -- is Palmer fully healthy mentally, how much will McNair bring to the Ravens' offense, what will the Steelers get from Roethlisberger? The Steelers have had numerous injuries and issues in the off-season, the Bengals have an explosive offense but questions on defense, the Ravens have a deadly defense that needs an offense. The whole division has a tough schedule: round-robins with AFC West and NFC South.
Prediction: Bengals, Ravens, Steelers. The latter two will be in a fine race for the wild card spots. The Ravens have an edge over the Steelers because they get the Chargers and Chiefs at home.
The Browns will field a team. They will draft high next year.
AFC South
No, The Monk doesn't understand how Indianapolis is in the AFC South any more than Arizona used to be in the NFC East. That said, this division is so weak, the Colts could win it fielding nine players per play. They lost Edgerrin James, but that only matters so much. Remember, an NFL back only needs to average 56 yards per game to run up a 1,000 yard season, and Dominic Rhodes and his understudies can easily do that. Indy will be more pass-first this season, but that just means Manning will rack up bigger numbers.
Jacksonville will again have a solid season because it should sweep the other two stiffs in the division, should crush the Jets and Bills, and winning half of its other contests would mean an 11-5 record. That's wild-card worthy. Nonetheless, the Jags could be set for a fall because they play the NFC East this year and each of those teams can beat them. Overall, the Jags will again be better on paper than on the field (see AFC wild card match at New England, 2005).
The Titans are still recovering from their salary cap disaster, which they self-imposed by keeping the nucleus of their Super Bowl runner-up team from the 1999 season together as long as they could. With Kerry Collins manning the controls while Vince Young serves his apprenticeship, and an influx of some new vets, the Titans should be competitive as they prepare for next season.
The Texans stink. They passed up on Reggie Bush to sign a pass-rusher who is of questionable efficacy. They lost their starting running back. They have no offensive line. They'll be picking high in the 2007 draft.
AFC West
The Chiefs have a new coach but still lack a solid defense; the Chargers have a new QB; the Raiders brought in Jeff George. There are the three best reasons that the Broncos will win the division again.
The Broncos have everything they need to win the division, and still lack something necessary to win the AFC title -- defensive dominance, intangibles from the QB, a dependable runner (note to Mike Shanahan, the system means only so much -- you still miss Clinton Portis). That doesn't change this year. It might when the Jay Cutler era begins in 2007.
Herm Edwards is a fine motivator and practice coach, but as a gameplanner and strategist he is one of the worst in the NFL. The Chiefs have great talent: a QB who threw for 4000+ yards with no top-notch receiver and with TE Tony Gonzalez having a down year, a solid offensive line, and the best running back in the NFL. Think not? Larry Johnson scored 20 TD and rolled up 1760 yards running and didn't even start five games! And unlike Shaun Alexander, LJ is a solid receiver. Once again, the defense is subpar. And this year, the Chiefs have Edwards as their coach, not Vermeil -- and Herm will prove to be a negative in close games (just ask Jets fans).
The Chargers will end up as one of the best teams in the league, but expect a struggle early on as Phillip Rivers learns his job. Having the second best RB in the division (and conference) helps, but the defense will still be a weak spot.
The Raiders stink. Again. At least Art Shell may restore some pride and help them run off 6 wins.
AFC Champion: Patriots. The Monk is drinking the Belichick Kool-Aid.
I tried it, and ended up going jogging at 5:30 in the morning. I tried to find Jesus then, but to no avail. He was asleep. Same with Shiva, the bastard. My jog was probably slower than my walk, I really needed to pee, and I was struck with the fact that my wife is WAY more in shape than I am. And I'm ok with that. I've (shock) turned into my father!
A belated Happy Birthday to the Crushed Mom, who turned asdfijsadlifd yesterday, and celebrated by staying home alone all evening because the Crushed Dad was in a show. Go Dad! Now there's a man who won't go jogging at 5:30 in the morning. Teach me, and mold me......
Gavin, by the way, is stuck on a safari through the heart of Africa. He wanted me to tell all of you that he was really sorry, that he had discovered that he only has one testicle, and that he's developed some sort of fever from prolonged exposure to monkeys and Nathan Acheson (who, whenever HE gets around to it, will also help out with a couple of posts around here instead of just playing with his wood all day). He should be back on Monday, JUST in time to go on a business trip to Minnesota or wherever he goes these days. Montreal? French Polynesia? Your mom's house?
A small note on the fact that the Hawks were about to throw bushels of money at Deion Branch. Um, guys, don't we already have three good receivers, with a quality fourth and fifth in Warrick and Hackett? Wait till the offseason and sign him, but we really don't need him. It also pisses me off that we'd throw tons of money his way but we couldn't throw more money at Hutch or at Ty Law, both of whom would look pretty doggone good in a Seattle uniform right about now.
Next week, by the way, is all Seahawks, all the time. Not because I want to, or because anyone will read it. It's just that it makes me warm inside to write about the Hawks. Like a nice buzz you get from that really special pain medication.
I was commanded for today, however, to write about our Possible Championship Teams (except for Seattle, of course). These are teams that we actually think might qualify for the Big Game. We have picked three teams from each conference, though we realize that Pitt could very easily have made it into this category if we didn't hate the Steelers because we're sore losers and it doesn't make me happy to write about them.
New England (a subsidiary of God-Co):
Want to make someone mad, like Tash? Tell them that Belichick is a bum, overrated, and only a mid-level coach. Only you can't really get it out because it's completely not true and you realize that ol' Bill is one of the finest minds ever to man an NFL headset, and a reason, in and of himself (and Tom Brady) that the Pats are a contender once again. Brady turned in perhaps his finest season last year, Maroney looks great, the WR's will come together like usual, and Rodney Harrison is back to lower the boom on defense. Yes, it would be a mini-upset if they win it all, due to the injuries, the age, and the loss of such players like McGinest, but this team is clearly still the cream of the crop in the AFC East, no matter what CNNSI claims (having Miami get to the Super Bowl. Ummm, no.). I bow down to your greatness, New England.
Washington:
Well, there had to be a third team from the NFC, right? Why not the Skins, who boast the most complete coaching staff in Gibbs, Saunders, and Williams. Clinton Portis looked great last season (yes, I know he's injured, but that's not for the entire season, bonehead), I love Chris Cooley (might pick him up with a late-round fantasy selection on Sunday), Mark Brunell might have another good season left in him, and the defense will continue to dominate. I'm not that impressed by their free-agent pickups, including Randle-El, who was more the product of excellent coaching and scheming then being truly a gamebreaker (Ken Whisehunt will make some NFL franchise, possibly Pittsburgh, very happy). Basically, I see this team as the Bears, but with more potential on offense and MUCH better coaching. You can be darn sure that Gibbs wouldn't have pulled that single-coverage on Steve Smith crap that doomed the Bears last postseason (one of the single worst coaching displays I have ever seen). Honestly? I feel they were the second best team in the NFC last year.
Denver:
Before I discuss them, can I just say that Jay Cutler's 50 yard strike off his back leg against the Cards last night turned me into a true believer in his capability to become a nice QB in this league. Jake Plummer's days are numbered. In the meantime, Denver still has an excellent running game (now with Mike Bell playing the part of the newcomer who explodes onto the scene), and their passing game should be improved with the addition of Javon Walker, who has something to prove to the rest of the league. The defense can still be dominant at times, Mike Shanahan is another genuis, and they have the best home-field advantage in the league because of the high altitude. Evne the AFC West is weaker this season, which should help them in their fight to secure a home-field postseason game or two.
Carolina:
This is what I don't get with all the Carolina uber-hype. Their quarterback is Jake Delhomme. The Hawks have Matt Hasselbeck. Their top running back is DeShaun Foster. The Hawks have Shaun Alexander. Their top wide-receiver is Steve Smith, followed by Keyshawn Johnson and a bunch of stiffs. Our top wide-receiver is D-Jack, followed by Burleson, Engram, Warrick, and Hackett, each of whom could catch a big ball (not even counting Stevens here). Our offensive line is better even without Hutch. Our linebacking corps is better. Our run defense is better. The only area that they have us beat (by a wide margin) is in pass defense. THAT IS IT!!! Again, just looking at the teams as they begin the season, since a lot can change, but what the john, people? Tell me why this team is consistently given more love than the Hawks? Are the writers scared about Panthers players going all roid-rage on them?
Indy:
There's this guy named Peyton Manning who is a pretty good quarterback. You might have heard of him. Thus, they are a contender. An actually solid defense doesn't hurt matters, thought it remains to be seen where the rushing yards will come from.
Seattle:
Town full of liberal hippie pansies. Always raining. They all think they are God's gift to shit. More as it develops.
Our actual predictions will come next week, though you shouldn't be too shocked if, somehow, one of us ends up picking the Hawks to go to Miami, causing Gavin and I to spend bushels of money to actually attend said game.
One week to go! I can't wait!
Denver Broncos Schedule
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