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There aren't many RB that didn't have their situation altered in some way during the offseason. Several top backs lost key members of their offense or changed teams, and others had off-field problems. Don't make the mistake of drafting a player because of his name or recent history. Do the homework and find the bargain buys. These guys are not the bargain buys.
1. Tiki Barber -- New York Giants -- He was one of my bust picks last year, and he produced one of the best yardage seasons in NFL history. That means he'll automatically be ranked too high. He's 31 now, and his workload has increased each of the last three seasons, including 411 touches last year. That's too many for an older back, and this is the year he starts to break down. Many publications have him as the #4 or #5 overall player... I think you can do better by trading down for more value.
2. Corey Dillon -- New England Patriots -- Dillon turned in a good season last year when he was on the field, scoring 12 TD in 12 games. His overall fantasy numbers looked good, but they masked the truth. He averaged only 3.5 yards per carry, and his effectiveness in short yardage situations declined. The Pats drafted Laurence Maroney to take his place, and that might happen this year. Dillon will still be the goal line back, but if you are looking for a good starter, look somewhere else. If you do pick Dillon, make sure to back him up with Maroney.
3. Ron Dayne -- Denver Broncos -- Mike Shanahan says that Dayne is his #1 guy right now. Don't believe that will last long. Dayne hasn't made a habit of being very good, and his 3.7 yards per carry career average won't cut it in Denver. With Tatum Bell waiting to erupt as a superstar, I can't see how Shanahan will give more than 5-10 carries per game to Dayne. That being said, it is Denver, and anything can happen...
4. T.J. Duckett -- Atlanta Falcons -- With any luck, the Falcons will trade Duckett to someone who can give him more carries. He has a terrible yards per carry average, and he's not good catching passes out of the backfield. He does have 31 career TD in 54 games, but someone always looks at his freakish body and touchdown totals and picks him too high. Usually I'm that person, but not this year. With draft pick Jerious Norwood on board, and Warrick Dunn signed to an extension, Duckett's role appears to be diminishing. Draft him late and hope he gets dealt.
5. Willis McGahee -- Buffalo Bills -- It's hard to put him here, seeing that he's rushed for almost 2400 yards in his first two seasons. I just don't like what Buffalo is doing on the offensive side of the ball. They had a chance to get a better WR to complement Lee Evans, and ended up with Peerless Price. Unless this is 2002 all over again, the Price thing won't be too successful. With problems at QB and an average offensive line, McGahee's numbers could plateau at about 1400-1500 total yards and 6-8 TD. That's not too bad, but he's not a top-10 choice with those numbers. If he's your RB1, make sure your #2 is strong.
As noted here by the brilliant mathematician, Statisticus Indulgencles, the key to the Raiders opening day success or failure lies in stopping one thing: LaDainian Tomlinson.
Yes, there is the nubile QB, Phillip Rivers, to consider. The Dischargers are the only team in the league who's roster boasts exactly ZERO QBs with an NFL start. Rumor is the Dischargers even were interested in signing KFC before the Flaming Thumbtacks made that mistake. 'nuff said.
There is the fact the Dischargers are down to rookie Marcus McNeil at Left Tackle (who slipped in the draft because of his rather sloppy footwork and chronic spinal stenosis) to protect Rivers' blind side. But also consider Rivers can always hand off or check down to Tomlinson or All-Pro TE Antonio Gates when the Raiders get in his grill. Worked for young Big Ben and the Squeelers, no?
The truth is, allow LT the second (Lawrence Taylor was the first "LT") to run free as The Autumn Wind - and you lose. Stop LT II the way a van, a bottle, and a tree stopped Dave Dalby - and you win.
Simple.
Moreover, the ability to stop the run is the lynchpin to winning the West. Give Schottenheimer, Shanahan, and Edwards enough rope, and they will hang the Raiders... again. But tighten the noose on LT II, Larry Johnson, and the Donco flavor-of-the-month RB (about all we know is it won't be Maurice Clarett and probably will be some guy named "Bell") and the West will be ours. Believe it.
As this graphic shows, the Dischargers had the best run defense in the NFL last season, as measured by average rushing yards per game given up (84.3). Who was #2 in the NFL? You guessed it, the Doncos at 85.2 yds/game. Even the Condiment Chefs of KC, with their woeful "D" came in at #7 in the league at stopping the run (98.1).
Where were the Raiders you ask? Try scanning down the list till you reach #25 and 128.1 ypg given up. The words dreadful, awful, and embarssing come to mind.
Rushing yards are very related to a team's W-L record. When a team gets ahead on the scoreboard, it typically plays conservatively and runs the ball down the other team's throat in the second half playing "kill the clock".
When a team gets behind (see Norv Turner as Exhibit A), the running game is abandoned as the ball flies through the air in the second half in an effort to make up the scoring deficit quickly.
This tells us that for all the hype about WRs and QBs, for all the talk Norv did about passing first to set up the run, verily, if you rush the ball successfully and stop the run successfully, everything else is possible. Fail to do so and, well... we are unfortunately familiar with those results.
Question is, what has been done in the offseason to shore up the Raider run defense, which gave up far to many yards past the line of scrimmage last season?
Where have you gone Matt Millen? The Nation turns it's lonely eyes to you:
Where are you to give the *Patsies Cheesewhiz owner, Bob Kraft, a right hook to the noggin for the Snow Job? Where are you to bring the presence of fear to the middle?
You say you currently are in Detroit cutting your first round draft pick WR, Charles Rogers? Never mind, Mr. Millen. We'll have to go with plan B.
Throughout the years, Mr. Allen Davis has looked at the LB spot as plan B. Plan A is focus on collecting the best bump'n'run Corners in the game and find some demon Ends like Howie or Burgess to put the fear into 'em.
But whither the MLB/ILB spot... it seems less of a priority in Oakland than having a Punter who can hit the SuperDome gondola with a ballistic punting exhibition.
Yes, we have memories or Rod Martin taking three picks from Ron Jaworski's pocket and dooming 'em to a life as a broadcaster with a shattered ego. Yes, we have Kick'em In the Head Ted Hendricks in the HOF... but these memories are of OLBs.
Where is our Dick Butkus to slam the ball carrier to the grass like a broken Barbie doll from the Island of Misfit Toys?
Where is our Mike Singletary, his eyes bugging out like Marty Feldman smoking crystal meth, to lead this "D" to dominance?
Where indeed is the MLB - the QB of the "D" - in our Radier history? At the back of the bus.
Danny "Hammerhead" Clark had been leading the team out of the tunnel during the preseason. Alas, like Greg Biekert before 'em, Clark's heart was big enough, but his body just not fast enough to get him there. We remember Clark and wish him well. The Turk got'em. Perhaps the Raiders will resign him after week one to a new contract...
Cutting Clark and adding The Tomases at LB ( Howard and Robert) shows us the Raiders are interested in adding speed to this "D", and rightly so. But are they nasty like Butkus? Are they smart like Singletary?
The Raider depth chart now shows Kirk Morrison as the lone MLB left on the roster. No other position on the roster has no backs up listed. See what I mean about MLB being an afterthought to Al Davis?
Even third string MLB Ryan Riddle, who looked impressive in the HOF game forcing and recovering a fumble and is a good special teamer to boot (an essential quality for a back up), es no mas.
While Capt. Kirk seemingly has inherited the leadership role from Clark and did lead all NFL rookies last year in tackles - Morrison is definitely my favorite player from that draft and an Oakland homer as well - the complete lack of depth at MLB is puzzling to say the least.
Perhaps Michael Huff is going to be the leader of this "D"? After all, Rod Woodson was the Safety who lead the league in INTs as the leader of the Raider "D" during the last SB run.
Whether we hav a Safety or MLB as our defensive QB matters little, but Morrison was just a rookie and Huff is one now. Isn't it a bit much to expect them to lead the charge against LT II, Larry Johnson, and the DumBells running behind the cutblockers?
Art Shell has laid down the law with this team. He recently said "Jerry Porter is a player. We will tell him when he is going to play." Art knows leadership. The question is, which of the players on "D" will step up to the leadership role?
Did you notice there are only four DTs now listed on the roster? Sapp, Kelly, Hawthorne, and Sands. No new bodies were added at DT from '05 and we now are missing big Ted Washington.
Methinks there will be some trouble up the middle in '06 in Oakland, for we have even less players clogging the run than last year's team, which as we all know held up like a cardboard FEMA tarp on a post-Katrina rooftop in New Orleans.
A sticky thanks to Raidinator for polishing up his bike, The Autumn Wind for us.
By the way, Dave Dalby's tragic death did form the impetus for the Silver and Black Fund. This organization's mission is to help raise funds for the medical care of former Raiders, such as Dalby and Tatum, who's significant medical bills are not met by their NFL pensions.
The link for S'n'B Fund is here so check it out.
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