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Even with the backing of the Orange Crush Defense, the Denver Broncos always seems to lose when it counted the most; in 1978 against the Dallas Cowboys (Super Bowl XII), in 1986 against the New York Giants (Super Bowl XXI), in 1987 against the Washington Redskins (Super Bowl XXII), and in 1989 against the San Francisco 49ers (Super Bowl XXIV). Denver fans, like my father, never gave up hope that their team would one day win the Super Bowl, and a world title. In 1997, the dreams of every Denver Broncos fan came true; the Broncos defeated the defending World Champioin Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XXXII. They would go on to hold the title for another season, defeating the Atlanta Falcons, including current head coach of the Falcons, Dan Reeves who was the former Broncos head coach before Mike Shanahan took over in 1995.
Today, we keep the Orange Crush defense alive in our minds and hearts. I am also going to keep mine alive on my body. At the Nordstrom Rack this afternoon, I found a shirt that is orange, though lighter than the Crush jersey's, as well as a tie that is orange, blue, light blue, and green. Not only will I be able to sport the latest fashion trends, I will further the charge of my favorite football team to yet another world title.
Similar to what I did with "Be The GM" Part I, II, and III, I am going to spend some time looking at what the Oilers can and need to do now that they have traded Chris Pronger. I see that Pleasure Motors has done the same over at Covered In Oil. I haven't read it yet, but will do so after I post this. I am sure we are thinking many of the same things. This beast is going to be huge, and could be pointless by this time tomorrow. But what the hell, right? Oh, wait. Matt has that evaluation-of-Jarmoe-post that he promised us way back in April coming, so I may be hogging the page here. I hope he will forgive me.
Preliminary Thoughts
• I'm going to assume that Lowe will sign all his RFA's. Other than that, I'm not going to speculate much on who we should sign, but rather focus on what strategies we might want to explore to fill out the rosters.
• It's interesting to me that not a single Oilers UFA has signed anywhere else. Asking for a tad too much, perhaps?
• I hadn't even thought of it until now, but we got Joffrey Lupul, Ladislav Smid, a 2007 first-round pick, a conditional first-round pick and a 2008 second-round pick, as well as a year of Chris Pronger in his prime, for Eric Brewer, Jeff Woywitka and Doug Lynch. In essence, that is all it really cost us. I'm practically giddy after thinking of it in that manner.
• We are all in a panic, because right now the Oilers aren't very deep on the blueline. But taking a look at the type of money that has been thrown at free agent defencemen since July 1, I'm sure glad Kevin Lowe hasn't panicked. There is no other word for some of those contracts than ridiculous. There is no way I would be happy with Lowe throwing that kind of money around. I was mad enough at him for giving Roloson $4 million a year. The Oilers defence is now pretty much the same defence they had two years ago, and while it isn't amazing, it isn't awful. Since Matt loves the word so much, I'll say it again. It's "serviceable."
• In his telephone conference today, Lowe made a passing comment to Terry Jones about a two-tier system developing in the NHL. He never brought it up again, but I'm curious as to what he was thinking. It is obvious that he isn't impressed with the type of money being spent on unrestricted free agents, especially the defencemen. I wonder if we could get him on here to do an interview, like Billy Beane does with Athletics Nation. I am going to try and eliminate my inflamatory and foul language for awhile, in the hopes of making it a reality. First question: "Kevin, have you read Moneyball?"
• A year ago, Oilers fans were freaked that Lowe hadn't made any big moves. The phone lines were filled with people expressing their frustration. Well, Lowe came through. We got more than our fair share of trades and signings this year. I am going to try and keep reminding myself of this fact over the next few days. I may even turn it into a Zen Koan: "what is the sound of one GM waiting?"
• Jaroslav Spacek is going to soon become a very well-compensated man.
• Lost in the debate over the Pronger trade is the fact that Joffrey Lupul is actually a restricted free agent. We still have to sign the kid, if you can believe it. And I have no idea about Ladislav Smid. Can anyone give me his status?
• I believe Lupul's grandparents are also part of the ownership group. I think he should have to negotiate his deal with his Grandpappy.
• Getting Lupul also means that the Oilers now have three solid right wingers in Ales Hemsky, Fernando Pisani, and Lupul. One of them is likely going to have to move positions.
• Most Edmontonians are mad at Chris Pronger. But can you imagine if you made the grave error of buying a Chris Pronger jersey over the past two months? If you bought it at the beginning of the season, at least you got some wear and tear out of it. But I can totally imagine some poor old lady deciding six weeks ago that she was finally going to cave and buy a Pronger jersey. I mean, why not? He's gonna be here for four more years, right? Wrong. I expect to read in the Edmonton Sun about someone suing Chris and Lauren within the next eight to ten days.
• Teams that have been very silent: Buffalo, Montreal, San Jose, Dallas, Philadelphia and Chicago.
• Martin Biron is still in Buffalo, J.S. Giguere is still in Anaheim, David Aebischer is still in Montreal, and Evgeni Nabokov is still in San Jose.
• If Dominek Hasek were smart, he would stay in game shape, and just sit until next year's trading deadline. Someone will certainly call him, and he'll get a nice paycheck for two-three months work.
Oilers Lineup As Of July 3rd, 2006 (Salary)
Player2006-2007 Salary (US$)Dwayne Roloson$4 millionRyan Smyth$3.5 millionFernando Pisani$2.5 millionJason Smith$1.976 millionSteve Staios$1.615 millionEthan Moreau$1.026 millionMarc-Andre Bergeron$969,000Marc-Antoine Pouliot$942,400 Raffi Torres $925,000Robbie Schremp$860,000Matt Greene$855,000Jussi Markkanen$850,000Jeff DesLauriers$554,000Total$20,572,400
Oilers Lineup As Of July 3rd, 2006 (Depth Chart)
(click image to enlarge)
Oilers Free Agents As Of July 3, 2006*
PlayerTypeAge2005-2006 Salary (US$)Mike Peca Group III UFA32$3.99 millionSergei SamsonovUFA27$2.77 millionJaroslav SpacekGroup III UFA32$2.25 millionDick TarnstromGroup III UFA31$1.6 millionRadek DvorakGroup III UFA29$1.596 millionTy Conklin UFA29$1.14 millionGeorges LaraqueGroup III UFA29$1.083 millionShawn HorcoffGroup II RFA27$1 million Ales Hemsky Group II RFA22$901,740Joffrey LupulGroup II RFA22$900,600Igor UlanovGroup III UFA36$900,000Jarret StollGroup II RFA24$501,600Rem MurrayGroup III UFA33$450,000
*I did not place minor league players in this list.
Unrestricted Free Agents Who Are Still Available
Defencemen: Danny Markov (Nas), Tom Poti (NYR), Aki Berg (Tor)
Forwards: Jeff Friesen (Ana), Marty Reasoner (Bos), Mark Recchi (Car), Eric Daze (Chi), Brendan Shanahan (Det), Jeremy Roenick (LA), Jan Bulis (Mon), Yanic Perreault (Nas), Viktor Kozlov (NJ), Martin Rucinsky (NYR), Petr Sykora (NYR), Vaclav Varada (Ott), Oleg Kvasha (Pho), Geoff Sanderson (Pho), Petr Cajanek (STL), Scott Young (STL), Jason Allison (Tor), Eric Lindros (Tor), Anson Carter (Van), Richard Park (Van), Jarkko Ruutu (Van), Jeff Halpern (Was)
I should note that there are other UFA players available. I just didn't list them. You can see the complete list here.
What To Do, Option I: Raid The RFA Market
This one was floated around today. I have never really understood why General Managers shy away from trying out the restricted free agent route. As Matt has noted, it doesn't cost the pursuing GM very much, and the defending GM always has the option to match. The existence of the salary cap actualy makes me think that it should be used more, as a specific tactic to harm irresponsible General Managers or force General Managers in your own division to waste money. I only remember two times in recent memory that teams have tried the RFA route: when the Rangers went after Joe Sakic, and when the Canes went after Sergei Fedorov. They failed both times, as the offers were matched. The difference now, of course, is that some teams just won't be able to match, because of the cap issue. The most famous RFA signing is likely the Scott Stevens/Brendan Shanahan deal. Interestingly, Curtis Joseph and Rod Brind'Amour were the original compensation offer made to the Devils for Shanahan. The Oilers also lost someone through restricted free agency in the early 90's, if I remember correctly, but I don't remember which players were involved. I do remember that we were robbed. And I want to say it involved the Devils, but I can't be sure.
I actually don't have a limitless amount of time, so I can't go through each NHL team roster and determine their current payroll commitments. If TSN would take the time to put a total at the bottom of their payroll commitments, we would know for sure, but I am going to guess that at least four teams are pressed up against the cap wall: Vancouver, Philadelphia, New Jersey, and Boston. Buffalo will likely also be, if they sign all their RFA's. And Toronto might be too, since they have spent around 50% of their cap room on four defencemen and Mats Sundin. If Lowe were to look at grabbing a restricted free agent, these would be the places to go. The problem, of course, is that an opposing General Manager can also decide to go after your restricted free agents. It may make sense from an aggressive management perspective to go after a Eric Staal, Jay Bouwmeester, Patrice Bergeron or Joni Pikanen. From a defensive standpoint, however, you have just opened up your flank to a bunch of GM's who all of a sudden decide they would very much like to get their hands on Ales Hemsky or Shawn Horcoff.
If Lowe does go after a restricted free agent, I hope it is Joni Pitkanen of the Philadelphia Flyers. Like I said in the comments section today, I like this idea for four reasons:
a) Pitkanen is a fantastic young player, and could immediately become our number one defenceman.
b) Philly is close to the cap, and will be hard-pressed to match.
c) I hate Bobby Clarke.
d) I have little qualms about poaching players from Clarke and Ed Snider. They have signed players to ridiculous contracts for years, and it led to a preposterous escalation of NHL salaries that ultimately led to the lockout. It would be poetic justice to see the small-market Edmonton Oilers steal a player from them.
Which Restricted Free Agents Are Still Available?*
Defencemen: Paul Mara (Bos), Dmitri Kalinin (Buf), Mike Commodore (Car), John-Michael Liles (Col), Marek Svatos (Col), Jay Bouwmeester (Fla), Mike Van Ryn (Fla), Bryan Allen (Fla) Joni Pitkanen (Phi), Brooks Orpik (Pit), Christian Ehrhoff (SJ)
Forwards: Andy McDonald (Ana), Patrice Bergeron (Bos), Brad Boyes (Bos), Maxim Afinogenov (Buf), Daniel Briere (Buf), Tim Connolly (Buf), Erik Cole (Car), Mark Bell (Chi), Kyle Calder (Chi), Tuomo Ruutu (Chi), Nikolai Zherdev (CBJ), Nathan Horton (Fla), Stephen Weiss (Fla), Marian Gaborik (Min), Mike Ribeiro (Mon), Michael Ryder (Mon), Martin Erat (Nas), Scott Hartnell (Nas), Scottie Upshall (Nas), Brian Gionta (NJ), Scott Gomez (NJ), Mike York (NYI), Martin Havlat (Ott), Peter Schaefer (Ott), Antoine Vermette (Ott), Simon Gagne (Phi), Ladislav Nagy (Pho), Oleg Saprykin (Pho), Ruslan Fedotenko (TB), Nik Antropov (Tor), Matt Stajan (Tor), Ryan Kesler (Van)
* I left goalies off this list.
What To Do, Option II: Make Trades
This one makes more sense, although we may have to give up young talent in return. Then again, looking at what we gave up for Pronger, and looking at what we got back for him when we traded him, it might cost us very little. Teams that have no choice but to make a trade, whether it is due to cap problems or bizarre trade requests, can ultimately ask for little in return. That is what happened when we acquired Pronger from the Blues, and Lowe may indeed be thinking of doing it again. I agree with Tyler that Lowe is much better with trades than strict negotiations. Like I said earlier, I don't know for sure who is up against the cap wall, but there are probably several teams who have to move players as part of their short-term or long-term plans. All of the free agent defencemen signings had to have pushed more than a few teams up against the cap wall, and some of them may be planning on moving others to offset the cost. Then again, it might have just been the usual General Manager stupidity prevalent in every professional sport. Either way, whether intentional or not, some players have to be on the trading block. One example would be New Jersey, who likely can't keep both Brian Gionta and Scott Gomez.
By the way, if you haven't done so already, go out and buy a copy of Michael Lewis' Moneyball. Don't even continue reading the rest of this post. It'll be here when you are done. Go. Now. Go.
What To Do, Option III: Save The Money For Next Season
People won't like it, but I'll ask it anyways: do we really have to spend all of our money now? Is there anything wrong with having a pretty good set of of forwards, pretty good goaltending, and an average defence? Does every single thing about our team need to be awesome? And do we have to spend all of our money to do so? I don't have any answers to these questions, mind you, but I do think they need to at least be asked. Can we go a year without making the playoffs, if it means we get to go back again for the five-year period after that?
Thanks to Chris McMurty, who ripped the list off of the HF Boards for me, we can all have a look at who will be available at the end of next season.
UFA & RFA For The 2007-2008 Season
Centers: David Legwand*, Peter Forsberg, Joe Sakic, Daniel Briere*, Pavel Datsyuk, Scott Gomez, Petr Nedved, Marty Murray, Tyler Arnason, Michal Handzus, Andy McDonald*, Ian Laperriere (player/team option for `07-08), Martin Straka, Radek Bonk, Pierre Turgeon, Sammie Pahlsson, Bryan Smolinski, Scott Nichol
Wingers: Marian Gaborik, Martin Havlat, Alex Tanguay*, Simon Gagne*, Shane Doan, Todd Bertuzzi, Teemu Selanne, Paul Kariya, Brendan Morrow, Erik Cole, Mike Knuble, Fred Modin, Kyle Calder*, Ales Kotalik*, JP Dumont*, Maxim Afinogenov*, Darcy Tucker, Ladislav Nagy*,Brian Gionta*, Steve Konowalchuk, Mike Johnson, Tomas Holmstrom, Richard Zednik, Sami Kapanen, Brad Tapper, Brad May, Adam Mair*, Antti Laaksonen, Andrew Brunette, Scott Mellanby, Aaron Downey
Defencemen: Brad Stuart, Chris Phillips, Sheldon Souray, Andrei Markov, Brian Campbell*, Toni Lydman*, Henrik Tallinder*, Dave Tanabe*, Craig Rivet, Sean O'Donnell, Joe Dipenta, Anders Eriksson, Patrice Brisebois, Lars Jonsson
*Guys who are eligible for UFA status next season but are RFAs right now; meaning, their status could change
What To Do, Option IV: Build
An idea that will draw even more ire than the last one. I am going to suggest that the best strategy for the Oilers might be to slow down, and possibly start from scratch. The Oilers now have a fairly young and talented offensive core. We have a couple young defencemen who have played all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. But we also have a fairly old defensive core, and an old goaltender. It seems to me, and Kevin Lowe hinted at it today during his telephone conference, that the teams most likely to succeed in the "new NHL" are those who can grow most of their talent themselves, sign those players to lengthy deals at a cheaper rate than what the free agent market is dictating, and then fill out the roster with some older, more experienced but less talented players. I don't know if Cosh would remember this, but I articulated a belief in starting from scratch to him over an email exchange a year ago, before Lowe had signed Pronger and Peca. My belief then was that Lowe should hold a press conference wherein he would tell Oilers fans the plan was to watch and learn what kind of formula for success the new CBA dictated, and respond accordingly. That it would take at least 3-5 years to build a highly competitive and successful franchise, and to ask for patience. Well, a year later, after being one good performance away from winning the Stanley Cup, we have some idea of what the new CBA and rule changes are demanding. Personally, I wouldn't mind if we slowed it down a bit, built up a stable of high-level prospects through the draft and trades, and did things right from the start. All I ask is that I get told about it, and am given some deadlines.
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