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When Mike Shanahan names the starting running back before each season, all fantasy footballers run to the computers to make sure they get that player on that team. Since Shanahan became head coach of the Broncos, his leading rushers have been Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis and Rueben Droughns. None of them were higher than a second round pick (Portis, 19th in the 2nd round), and among them are 2 sixth rounders (Davis, Anderson) a 4th rounder (Gary) and a 3rd rounder (Droughns.) So, it's no surprise that Shanahan named an undrafted rookie free agent his starting running back. He has been able to name a new man a starter each year, and then either flip them to other teams for other players (Portis for Champ Bailey, Droughns for some D-lineman) and he really has no worries on who his running back is. All he knows is that whoever it is will rush for more than 1000 yards. Also mixed in there in the last few years were Quentin Griffin, Tatum Bell, and Ron Dayne. All of whom enjoyed some success in the Denver backfield. So, it will be interesting to see if Bell, a 4-year starter at the University of Arizona, can become the next Portis or the next Olandis Gary, but it seems like he will at least be able to get some long-term job security (in another city, not Denver) now that he has landed the RB gig for the Broncos. And yes, snatch him up in the 5th or 6th round if you can.
With the NFL season rapidly approaching, I felt it was time to provide some predictions. Mostly, considerations were based on last year's record, incoming/departing free agents, coaching changes, and (most of all) my gut. Let's first look at last year's playoff teams, and determine how many, if any, will make a repeat trip to the playoffs:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Negative Factors: Jerome Bettis retired. Ben Rothlisberger crashed his motorcycle. Antwan Randle El left for Washington. Bill Cower wants to live in Raleigh after the season (alright, that's speculation).
Analysis: Cower brings back a brutal defense in tact, and the offense should be just good enough to keep them off of the field.
Final Answer: Yes
2. Seattle Seahawks
Key Negative Factors: Mike Holmgren is a whiner. Hutchinson is gone. Secondary did not improve in off-season.
Analysis: The 'SuperBowl Loser' Jinx aside, this team is essentially loaded in all positions.
Final Answer: Yes
3. Carolina Panthers
Key Negative Factors: Umm... none? If you want to nitpick, you could say that Keyshawn might be a disruption. Or, that the running back position has suspect depth.
Analysis: This team is stacked. They have it all - swarming defense, QB leader, playmakers at the skill positions, rock solid coaching..
Final Answer: Yes
4. Denver Broncos
Key Negative Factors: Defense is aging quickly, and can leave Bailey on an island at times. Offense is aging quickly (see a pattern here?). No threats at the #2 WR position. RB situation is a mess.
Analysis: Mike Shanahan can coach.. the question is, does his ego outweigh his ability? I have to question anyone that drafts Maurice Clarett.. but, so far so good.
Final Answer: No
5. Indianapolis Colts
Key Negative Factors: Edge is gone.. Edge is gone.. Edge is gone.. Rhodes and Addai combined might have Edge-like ability. Manning an Dungy are too nice to win the big one.
Analysis: You can't argue with Manning's regular season track record. Rhodes is servicable enough to keep the D honest.
Final Answer: Yes
6. New England Patriots
Key Negative Factors: Decimated over last few years by injuries, especially on defense, where depth and talent are quickly becoming a factor. Clutch kicker - gone. The sole proven WR is holding out. Dillon is out of gas.
Analysis: Little Bill is a master of game strategy - but, if your strategy has to be "throw enough to keep us in the game", you might be in trouble. Richard Seymour is the last playmaker on D.
Final Answer: No
7. Cincinnati Bengals
Key Negative Factors: Can't stay away from legal trouble. Palmer still not fully recovered (mentally OR physically). Defense is average. Released quality backup QB Kitna.
Analysis: Lewis did an amazing job last year - with very few distractions. He has plenty this year.. and he may start the year with Anthony Wright? In a division where they play the Steelers and suddenly-improved Ravens twice in '06 might be a death sentence.
Final Answer: No
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Negative Factors: Jimmy Smith retired. Below average RB situation. Leftwich is an underacheiver. Akin Ayodele departed.
Analysis: Jack Del Rio has gotten a lot from his team, and is loaded with defensive talent, particularly on the D-line. The question is - can Leftwich finally show us what he did at Marshall and overshadow a suspect backfield?
Final Answer: Yes
9. Chicago Bears
Key Negative Factors: Historically up and down team (see: 2001 Bears). Already QB and RB controversies, unsettled starters. No goto WRs.
Analysis: The Bears have arguably the best D in the NFL. If Lovie can get his offense settled, and Grossman can stay on the field, they could be even more dangerous with both Benson and Jones - especially considering the divisional competition.
Final Answer: Yes
10. Washington Redskins
Key Negative Factors: Brunell played over his head last year and cannot effectively keep the D honest against the pass. New offense to learn may also slow the team. Sean Taylor is a distraction and has grossly underachieved.
Analysis: Joe Gibbs is a great coach, but can he survive a brutal schedule against most likely the toughest division in football? Brunell is aging, and has little help behind him.
Final Answer: No
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Negative Factors: Defense is old and slower. Cadillac is injury prone. Few threats other than Galloway, who overachieved last year
Analysis: I think the Bucs have potential in the NFC South, with only Carolina a better team. Simms seems to have grasped the offense, and Michael Clayton will be fully back from injury. The D has one more year in them, if Gruden has anything to say about it.
Final Answer: Yes
12. New York Giants
Key Negative Factors: Eli still makes too many mistakes. Barber is 31. O-Line is average. D secondary is horrible.
Analysis: the G-men have most of the pieces to be a very good team. Sam Madison is beyond his prime, but could keep the secondary stable enough to avoid a first round loss again.
Final Answer: Yes
So, we have 8 returning teams - 3 in the AFC, 5 in the NFC. Now the question is.. who are the replacements? Several teams come to mind - and with this much parity any thing is possible - but here are the most likely candidates:
AFC
1. Miami Dolphins
Key Positive Factors: Saban. More talent/stability at QB. Weak AFC East schedule.
Analysis: Culpepper, if he can return to form (which I think he can) gives the 'Fins instant credibility. Ronnie Brown is going to be a stud, and Chambers is a world beater with the right field general. The defense is average, but still has Zack Thomas and a few playmakers to keep the balance right.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Key Positive Factors: More talent/stability at QB (notice a theme here?). Defense is still very good, with some serious playmakers in Reed, Suggs and Ray Lewis.
Analysis: McNair is a significant upgrade if he can stay on the field. The defense has more than enough talent to carry this team, but they will no longer need to compensate for an erratic offense.
3. San Diego Chargers
Key Positive Factors: LT. Also, LT. Gates has no equal at the TE position and can win a game on his own. Defense has playmakers and was #1 against the run in '05.
Analysis: The jury is still out on Phillip Rivers, but as long as he doesn't stink (I don't think he will) he should not keep the Chargers out of the playoffs.
NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys
Key Positive Factors: Rock-solid D with playmakers galore. Owens makes offense better. Parcells is master motivator.
Analysis: If Tuna can control T.O., the offense may catch up to the rising D.. Demarcus Ware is a star in the making, and if Bledsoe can stay vertical with the O-line upgrades, there is no reason this team can't win the NFC East.
That rounds out the playoff teams... there are several teams that I considered, but just couldn't get over some of the holes in their overall plan:
Arizona Cardinals: Edge is nice, but O-line is grade-D meat.
Kansas City Chiefs: Sorry Herm - slow down, ball-control offense is not what this team needed. Try some defense.
Atlanta Falcons: Vick can't read a defense. Coaches won't let him run. Why is he making 15 mil?
There you have it - the 2006 playoffs. Coming soon - playoff winners and SuperBowl Champs.
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