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That’s right, the NFL is back. The defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers kick off the season by hosting the revamped Miami Dolphins at the Ketchup Bottle. With the Bus having moved on to the broadcast booth, and the now appendix-less Ben Roethlisberger on the sidelines, it could be a tough start to the season for the black and gold.
Tonight also marks the regular season debut of NBC’s coverage, featuring Bob Costas as the pre-game and halftime anchor, as well as a whole bunch of other guys. But Costas is back, and that’s the important thing.
I even dug up an old school video to get you in the mood:
Am I the only one who misses the network blazers? I was so inspired that after watching this clip, I went to visit my tailor. He’s currently putting together a Sports Matters blazer for me to wear while I work on posts.
Back to the games. We all know that Miami’s going to win tonight, but what about the rest of the season? I’d look into my crystal ball, but I trashed the stupid thing after it spewed out a Denver-Seattle Super Bowl two years ago, and a New England-Minnesota prediction last year. So instead we’re going to go on gut feelings, instincts, and all of the other intangibles that I can dig up:
AFC East
Sure they may not have a #1 or #2 receiver on the roster, a proven secondary, or a linebacker under the age of 42, but the New England Patriots have Brady-to-Ben Watson, and a fleet of talented running backs. They’re also strong along both lines, and as long as Belichik is calling the shots, you can’t count them out. Pencil them in for the division title, and at least 10 wins.
The Miami Dolphins are a trendy pick. They have an easy schedule, a quarterback coming off major knee surgery, and a feature running back who hasn’t been an every down player since high school. On the plus side, they have a great group of receivers, a talented front seven, and Nick Saban is such a good coach that everyone is willing to overlook the fact that they have a rebuilt and unproven secondary. Oddly enough, that’s the same situation that the Patriots find themselves in, but somehow Saban’s mentor, the guy with three Super Bowl rings as a head coach, doesn’t get the same benefit of the doubt.
Finally, am I the only one who thinks that Sex Boat Culpepper is going to get himself into trouble off of the field living in Miami? I mean, if he can do that in Minnesota, what’s he capable of in a party city like Miami? And it’s not like Coach Saban can watch him 24 hours a day.
Anyway, to summarize: the Dolphins are good, but not that good. They’ll beat New England at home in December, like they always do, but finish 2nd, and take one of the wild card spots.
Over in Buffalo, this is the year that JP Losman and the offense finally put it together. At least, that’s what I tell myself now, having spent high draft picks on Willis McGahee and Lee Evans in one of my fantasy leagues. What this probably means is that Losman will struggle, get yanked for Kelly Holcomb by Week 5, and the Bills will finish 6-10.
The New York Jets will be bad, really bad. But they also get Detroit, Houston, and Oakland at home, which might be enough to knock them out of the pole position in the Brady Quinn sweepstakes. If they somehow don’t win 2 of those games, they deserve to be relegated to NFL Europe for 2007. Bring on the Amsterdam Admirals!
AFC North
Killer schedule or not, this is the year the Cincinnati Bengals make the leap. Carson Palmer has looked great in the pre-season, and they are stacked everywhere on offense. Even if their D doesn’t come around, I don’t see any reason why they can’t pull an Indianapolis Colts (circa 1999-2004), and just outscore everyone for 16 weeks. My prediction: they go 11-5, and win the division by beating Pittsburgh in the final game of the season. The key to the game: a cutblock by Levi Jones on Kimo Von Oelhoffen to open the game, injuring the defensive lineman and keeping Carson Palmer safe for another day.
The Pittsburgh Steelers will be good, but not real good. With Big Ben recovering, and Willie Parker about to be exposed for being overrated, they’re going to get off to a very slow start. They’ll turn things around when they abandon the run and go pass-heavy in the second half, and do well enough to sneak into the second wild card spot.
As for the other teams in the North, Cleveland will be a spoiler all year, but doesn’t have the horses on offense to compete. Baltimore struggled last year, and things are going to get a lot worse. Injuries, age and a lack of depth will push them to the bottom of the division.
AFC South
Indianapolis should be just fine without Edgerrin James. They have enough weapons in the passing game, and some combination of Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai will produce a serviceable running game. I’m more intrigued to see how the losses on defense (Larry Tripplet, David Thornton) affect them. They could be forced to win more 38-35 games than they have been in recent years. Pencil them in for the division crown, but they’re not about to make another run at perfection.
Jacksonville is good, but they’ll take a step back with Jimmy Smith having retired, and no reliable backup to Fred Taylor, who will inevitably get hurt. The defense will keep them in games, but the 9 or 10 wins they’ll put up will put them just short of the playoffs.
Houston won’t be a playoff team, but they’ll mature as the season goes along, and will be a second half spoiler, and I don't just mean on the field. They'll spoil the seasons of most of their fans by refusing they made a mistake in the draft even after Mario Williams does absolutely nothing all season. As for the Tennessee Titans, no matter which combination of their three quarterbacks and three running backs emerges, it’s going to be a rough year. They’ve added some good players, but they’re not ready to be a contender yet.
AFC West
Here’s a bold prediction. The Denver Broncos will get off to a slow start, prompting Mike Shanahan to pull the plug on Jake Plummer and go with rookie Jay Cutler at quarterback by mid-season. Much to everyone’s surprise, the Broncos, behind Cutler and fellow rookie Mike Bell, will charge past the Kansas City Chiefs to win the division. Chiefs running back Larry Johnson will disappoint countless fantasy football players by establishing himself as merely a very good running back, not an extraordinary one. San Diego will have a rebuilding year, culminating in 6 or 7 wins, and the replacing of Marty Schottenheimer with a more player-friendly coach come January. Oakland will be bad, but they’ll find a way to win 4 or 5 games and play their way out of contention for the first overall draft pick.
NFC East
It’s all about the Philadelphia Eagles. The defense is loaded, Donovan McNabb is healthy, and the receivers will be improved. That should be enough to compensate for Brian Westbrook’s annual injury. Not only do the Eagles have enough firepower to win the division, they should take homefield advantage through the playoffs.
I’m putting the Dallas Cowboys second, based on their strong defense, but also the belief that the New York Giants will take a step back as Tiki Barber struggles, and coach Tom Coughlin alienated his players. Washington has a gimpy-armed quarterback, a hurting running back, and an overpriced defense. 6-10 is not the way Joe Gibbs intended to go out, but it’s probably what lies ahead for him.
NFC North
If Lovie Smith knows what’s good for his team, he’ll go to game manager extraordinaire Brian Griese sooner rather than later. If he does, I can’t see any reason why the Chicago Bears won’t comfortably win this division. The defense is great, they have playmakers on offense, and they play in the weakest division in the league. 12 wins wouldn’t surprise me.
As for the rest, Green Bay finishes second by default. They’ll surge down the stretch after an abysmal first half, prompting countless commentators to urge Brett Favre to come back for one more year, and therefore putting us through another insufferable “will he or won’t he retire?” saga. Minnesota and Detroit will both finish in the 4-5 win range, but on the bright side, the Vikes will avoid any major scandals, and the “Fire Millen” people will be lost to apathy, ensuring a controversy free year in the Motor City.
NFC Dirty South
I anticipate a big year for the Carolina Panthers. I’d really like to go against the grain, since they’re everyone’s popular pick, but I just can’t do it. They’ll win the division, and take the second spot behind the Eagles in the playoff seedings.
Tampa Bay will repeat their strong 2005 performance, and the Chris Simms-Cadillac Williams-Joey Galloway offensive trio will lead them to a playoff berth, where Simms can revive his college reputation for disappearing in big games.
Atlanta will be okay, but Michael Vick will continue to stagnate as a quarterback, and that will keep the Falcons from doing any better than .500 (I could even see them doing much worse). That is, unless Vick gets hurt. He’s the most obvious candidate for the Ewing Theory since Patrick Ewing himself. I’m convinced that the Falcons would be at least a 10-win team with Matt Schaub at QB. I may explain this more in my post “Why The Falcons Should Trade Michael Vick”, which means there’s about a 95% chance that I never will.
New Orleans will be fun to watch, since their offense will be dynamite. Unfortunately, they play in the NFL, not the Arena League, so their defense will do its part to keep them mired in mediocrity.
NFC West
I hate to be a Simmons-bot, but look for a big year from the St. Louis Rams. I have them winning the division, with Seattle taking a wild card spot. I think Bulger is a good quarterback, Jackson is a monster back, and they have one of the deepest receiving groups in the league. Most importantly, Scott Linehan understands the importance of protecting his QB, unlike his predecessor as head coach. The defense is also improved, so look for 10-12 wins out of this group.
I’ll give Arizona some respect once they put an offensive line and a secondary together. Until that time, I have to believe that they’re heading for another sub-.500 season. But on the bright side, at least they should be a trendy pick yet again next summer.
The less said about San Francisco the better. They should be slightly improved, but they overachieved last year, so that may not translate into a better record on the field. In any case, they’re at least two seasons away from contention, so I’ll be happy if Alex Smith progresses, Vernon Davis isn’t a complete bust, and they draft well in 2007.
Playoffs
Philadelphia is my pick in the NFC. Chicago doesn’t have the offense, Carolina is everyone’s pick (meaning they won’t win), and I’m not ready to gamble on St. Louis. The Eagles’ defense is strong, and if they have Brian Westbrook healthy, they can control the game on the ground. I have them edging out the Panthers in the title game.
I want to pick New England, but I can’t do it. I have a sinking feeling that the defense is going to implode, due to a combination of age, injuries, and lack of depth. Tom Brady may be a great quarterback, but one player can’t carry a team in football.
So who’s going to win the AFC? Pittsburgh and Miami aren’t quite there this year, Indy always chokes, and the Broncos will lack experience at key positions. Who does that leave? The Cincinnati Bengals. Though I expressed concerns about their D earlier in this post, I think it’s serviceable at worst if everyone stays healthy. Most importantly, they have balance on offense, and this is the year that Carson Palmer makes the leap to super-duper stardom. What better way to do it than by knocking off the Colts and/or Patriots on his way to a Super Bowl appearance.
Super Bowl
Who dey, who dey, who dey think they gonna beat them Bengals?
Not Philadelphia.
Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Philadelphia 20. Chad Johnson catches 2 touchdowns, is named Super Bowl MVP, and does the Super Bowl Shuffle to celebrate.
Wondering who will make the NFL playoffs in January? Wonder no more. Here you go, seventeen weeks in advance:
AFC East
This is a division of have's and have-not's. The Jets and Bills are the have-not's. They will be awful this year. Mike Mularkey quit Buffalo for a reason, and it wasn't to spend more time with the family. The Jets somehow thought that Herm Edwards was the reason they weren't winning. Turns out they have no talent. Eric Mangini may become a good NFL coach, but this year he makes mistakes, and a coach cannot do that without talent.
That leaves the Patriots and Dolphins. I keep reading the comments of "experts" who promise that even without Adam Vinatieri, and even with Deion Branch's hold-out, and a linebacking corps that is less than stellar, the Pats will continue to reload and win bunches of games. I see that Tom Brady is still the QB, and Bill Belilchek is still the coach. But this year, the Patriots get demoted to wild-card status. The Dolphins ended last season on a roll - they were finally "getting" coach Saban. They brought in Daunte Culpepper during the offseason, and he's not gonna know what to do with a stud RB like Ronnie Brown. Plus, he's gonna love Chris Chambers more than he ever did Randy Moss. This adds up to mucho success in Miami.
AFC East Division winner: Miami Dolphins
AFC North
This is a tough division to predict. The Steelers are the obvious choice to win the division since they are defending Super Bowl champs. But wait - they didn't even win their division last year. That honor went to the Bengals, who are racking up police arrests faster than Samuel L. Jackson puts out new movies. Then there are the Ravens, who are excited out of their minds to finally have a dependable QB in Steve McNair. He's dependable as long as you need somehow to hold the clipboard on the sideline and show up in the hot tub on Monday morning. As for being dependable to actually get off the injury report and play in the games, well, that's another story.
So we have a division where the QB's have issues: Roethlisburger is coming off a motorcycle accident and subsequent concussion. Palmer is coming off an ACL injury, from which it usually takes a couple of years to recover. McNair is a surgeon's worse nightmare. And Charlie Frye is a second year QB, but has given us no evidence that he is the next coming of Roethlisburger or Brady.
My head says go with the Bengals to repeat, since they were playing so well with Palmer last year, and he looked great in the preseason. But my gut says the Steelers are primed to win the division back.
AFC North division winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South
This division is all Indianapolis. Once again, and this pains me to say it, we have a division of have's and have-not's. And the Titans are not in the latter group. The Colts will still dominate, the Jags will still be pretty good, as in above average, while the Titans and Texans still have some rebuilding left before they compete for this division again.
The good news for me is that the Titans are gaining in popularity because of Vince Young. Before this summer, the only time I would see anyone wearing Titans paraphenalia around Waco is when I would look in the mirror. Now I am starting to see #10 jerseys pop up here and there. Cool.
AFC South division winners: Indianapolis Colts
AFC West
We can eliminate the Raiders immediately. Art Shell hasn't coached in 14 years, and the Raiders added Aaron Brooks at QB. That smells like a disaster.
I have a bad feeling about the Chiefs. Dick Vermeil and OC Al Saunders are gone, Herm Edwards is in. I think Edwards is a good coach, but I don't see the offense playing at quite the same level, even with Larry Johnson in his prime. They still have a mediocre passing game, and Tony Gonzalez is now on the downside of his career. Also, I don't see the defense improving. So the Chiefs are probably looking at a .500 kind of season.
That leaves the Broncos and Chargers. I'm gonna go with the Broncos for one reason: Philip Rivers. Maybe Rivers will be just as good as DrewBrees, and lead them back to the playoffs. But I don't think so. I think the Chargers take their lumps with Rivers this year, and look to 2007 to get back into the playoffs.
I have my concerns about the Broncos too. They drafted Jay Cutler as their future QB when their window of opportunity with Jake Plummer is as wide open as it can get. I think Broncos fans should wonder why the team traded up for Cutler when they could have gotten an impact player on defense.
AFC West division winners: Denver Broncos
NFC East
This is a tough one. Any one of the four East teams could win this division. In theory, I really like the Redskins offense. They have Al Saunders at OC. They brought in Antwaan Randle-El, Brandon Lloyd, and T.J. Duckett to go along with Clinton Portis. But Portis is already injured, and Mark Brunell is approaching 90 years old. Why haven't they turned the keys to the offense over to former first round pick Jason Campbell? It worked for the Bengals. Maybe Joe Gibbs knows what he is doing, but I have my doubts. I think the Redskins fall back below .500 this year.
Everyone around here thinks that T.O. blows up the Cowboys this year. Actually, everyone is holding their breath around here - everyone else thinks T.O. blows up and the 'boys with him. I think that happens next year. This year, the Cowboys are playoff bound. In fact, with the improved defense, I think it happens this year. But keep a close eye on the Giants - they will make this division very close, and the winner will probably not be decided until week 17. Also, the Eagles should bounce back from last year's disaster. They just won't bounce back into first place.
NFC East division winner: Dallas Cowboys
NFC North
Can anyone explain to my why it is that when I eat cocktail peanuts, I get an urge for chocolate? This has nothing to do with the Bears winning an otherwise laughable division. I was just wondering.
NFC North division winner: Chicago Bears (now watch - the Vikings will somehow pull out this division and prove me wrong)
NFC South
I really do not like following the herd. But I am going to jump on the Carolina Panthers bandwagon. They should repeat as division winners - they have all of that talent on the offensive and defensive lines. Jake Delhomme has already been to 2 NFC championship games and won one of them. DeShaun Foster is a monster when he's healthy, and DeAngelo Williams (Memphis!) is as good a back-up as they could have drafted.
The Falcons will go as far as Michael Vick takes them. But will Vick ever ascend from athlete-quarterback to Quarterback-athlete? I do not know. If he does, they will be a force this year. The Falcons defense could be good enough to win the division in a Chicago Bears like fashion. If the Falcons defense reaches Panthers-Bears heights, then watch out for Atlanta.
The Saints? They are moving in the right direction, and Reggie Bush is going to be a #1 fantasy player in a couple of years, mark my words. And let's not forget the Bucs, who just won the Super Bowl several years ago. Tampa will again be about average. I have no faith in Chris Simms. Good thing Jon Gruden does.
NFC South division winners: Carolina Panthers
NFC West
I want to badly to predict the Arizona Cardinals are taking the next step. So here goes: the Arizona Cardinals take the next step. That's right, ladies and gentlemen. I'm predicting the Cardinals reach .500 this year!
The 49ers will be just as bad this year. That team needs more than 1 or 2 good drafts to get out of the cellar. They have Vernon Davis. Now if only they could build a winning team around a tight end...
The Rams made a smart move by hiring Scott Linehan, who somehow plucked former coach Jim Haslett to lead the defense. So you can say that I like the direction that the Rams are moving. Is it enough to win the division? Maybe. If the Seahawks fall prey to the Madden curse and the Super Bowl curse, then yes. If the Seahawks come back strong, then no. I think the Seahawks overcome the Super Bowl curse and repeat as division winners. But I only have as much faith as I do lack of faith in the rest of the division. In other words, they win the division, but do not get very far in the playoffs.
NFC West division winners: Seattle Seahawks
So here are my playoff picks:
AFC East: Miami Dolphins
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: Denver Broncos
Wild Cards: New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC Champion: Miami Dolphins (Yes, I realize no home team has ever reached the Super Bowl. And this year's game is in Miami. 40 years is long enough, the streak is broken.)
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
NFC North: Chicago Bears
NFC South: Carolina Panthers
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
Wild Cards: Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants
NFC Champion: Carolina Panthers
Super Bowl Champion: Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos Schedule
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