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With the NFL season set to begin in but a few days, here's my picks for how the season will play out, starting with the AFC.
AFC EAST
The Patriots look to avenge last year's early playoff loss, but after going 2-2 this pre-season, a few questions about this group remain: Will the offense, led by perennial Pro-Bowler Tom Brady, be as effective with the loss of David Givens and, as it appears, Deion Branch? Will Junior Seau pick up the slack with Teddy Bruschi nursing a broken wrist? How will the defense deal with the loss of Willie McGinest?
1. New England Patriots
Despite these questions, the Patriot's have proved that under Bill Belichick, the sum of the team is better than it's parts. Tom Brady has the ability to lead receivers into big yardage, and to place the ball perfectly. Despite losing his top two receivers, Brady and Co. seem unfazed.
2. Miami Dolphins
After running for 907 yards on 207 carries, second year running-back Ronnie Brown will have some help carrying the load this year. Daunte Culpepper was brought in to help shoulder some of the burden, but after going 2-2 in the pre-season -- but with their second stringers taking it to St. Louis -- it remains to be seen if the Dolphins can capture the magic that saw them finish the season with six-straight wins.
3. New York Jets
The Jets are obviously in re-building mode and making some solid draft choices like D'Brichashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. However, the two rookies, both first on the Jets depth chart for their respective positions, will have their work cut out for them protecting Chad Pennington and creating holes for Kevan Barlow.
4. Buffalo Bills
J.P Losman won the starting QB job for the Bills, but it is likely that 4th year running back, Willis McGahee will be given loads of work on offensive series'. But with the Bills, you have to consider their defensive line, anchored by RE Aaron Schoebel, as one of their strengths. Nonetheless, they are still the Bills, and with five of their first six games coming against tough opponents, they may not recoup from a poor start.
AFC NORTH
The top two picks in this division are a no-brainer, but the question is who will finish on top. And of course, the division is going to be dominated by questions about the two top quarterbacks: Is Carson Palmer going to rebound from his knee surgery? and Is Ben Roethlisberger going to be able to rebound from his motorcycle accident?
1. Cincinnati Bengals
Carson Palmer seems to have had all the proper pieces put back into the right place -- although, it took him awhile to get over that mental hurdle. Of course, there is likely more mental hurdles he will still have to get over. But with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson as Palmer's primary targets, and Rudi Johnson in the backfield, it is hard to bet against this offense.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have the cornerstones of that Super Bowl team still intact; however, there success last year came largely from a season-ending 8 game winning streak, and it will be difficult to duplicate that this year. But I think as the year goes on, questions surrounding Bill Cowher's future may start to impact the team, specifically, their starting QB.
3. Baltimore Ravens
It is obvious that Baltimore is not the dominating team they once were, with an aging Ray Lewis anchoring the defense up the middle. This is not to say that they may not slide into a playoff spot via the wild-card. Kyle Boller is out, and Steve McNair is in, so look for Derrick Mason to have an even better year than his 1,000 yard one last year.
4. Cleveland Browns
Year two will not be any better for Romeo Crennel. Sorry, not much else to say.
AFC SOUTH
This division is all about the Colts. Despite last year's regular season dominance, the Colts still found a way to spend February in front of the t.v. instead of on it. With this still fresh in their minds, will this finally be the year of Manning and Co.?
1. Indianapolis Colts
At least two writer's are predicting Peyton Manning and the Colts to finally break-through in the playoffs and actually win the big dance. I agree that the Colts are due, but I am skeptical that it will occur this year. However, the defense proved last year that it is not all about the offense, so maybe it could happen.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags 12 wins last season had a little help from a generous schedule. However, with a much tougher one this year, a similar record might be stretching it. A relatively solid defense needs to be better supported by a more consistent offense -- Byron Leftwich, this means you!
3. Houston Texans
"Surprise" first-pick Mario Williams will have a lot to do to win over the Texans fans, who wanted Reggie Bush in the back field to compliment David Carr. Obviously this didn't happen, and the defense will be much improved. However, for a team that didn't boast a player with 1,000 yards carrying or receiving, some offense may have been more beneficial.
4. Tennessee Titans
Who is going to QB this team is a moot point -- with no discernable offensive target, the QB may as well be throwing to pylons (which means I still have a shot). Indeed, the acquisition of David Givens gives the O some credibility, but after game one, it will become clear that this team has some giant leaps to take.
AFC WEST
This division boasts three teams that have a legitmate shot at the division, if the cards fall properly for each team. The team that will prevail is the one that can stay healthy, and barring that, the one with more depth.
1. Denver Broncos
And that team appears to be the Broncos. The Bronco's already had a legitmate threat in the backfield in the Bells and Jake Plummer. The acquisition of Javon Walker and the emergence of Jay Cutler gives Mike Shanahan even more options.
2. San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers hasn't had the strongest pre-season, but he is certainly a step-up from a former Chargers starting QB (cough cough). Having A.J Feeley backing him up will more than likely help his development like breathing helps me lose weight. Guys like McCardell, and some guy by the name of LaDanian Tomlinson will be carrying the load, and doing a relatively good job of it.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Larry Johnson is an amazing player, but unfortunately, he is not an amazing team. Thus, he can't do this on his own, although judging by the personnel Cardinal's brass has surrounded him with, they think this possible. I am sure he looks in the mirror everyday and wonders: "why me?" Much like all Chiefs fans.
4. Oakland Raiders
Warren Sapp is playing the D-Line with Burgess (16 sacks last season), so this should make some opposing QB's think about getting the ball of more quickly. However, it is not like the rest of the secondary is going to do much about that: the starters combined for two interceptions last season, and they were both by FS Stewart Schweigert.
NFC EAST
What will be more entertaining: TD's from two explosive players playing on the same team? Or Parcell's slow burn and eventual blow-up? Not that it will happen this year, but mark your calendar for, say, next year around November.
1. Dallas Cowboys
Two words: Glenn and Owens. The former is a catching-machine, and I don't care what anyone says about T.O., the guy can play the game of football. Combine this with a Drew Bledsoe who is playing like he did in the mid-90's, and I think we have a division winner. A few things to keep an eye on is Bledsoe's ability to keep up this pace, and of course, Owens antics. Although, he is still in his honeymoon phase with Dallas, so look out for problems next year.
2. NY Giants
Eli Manning has the skills, but he isn't his older brother. With that said, he has a strong supporting cast: Tiki Barber in the back field, and Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer as targets. As solid defense means the Giant's have a chance to sneak into the playoffs after last year's division championship.
3. Washington Redskins
A terrible pre-season has lead many to wonder if the Redskins are for real. On paper, this team is for solid, with Brunell at the helm, and perennial stars as his targets: Santana Moss, Brandon Llyod, and the newly-acquired Antwaan Randle El. Yet the first-team offense has been dismal in the pre-season, and with Clinton Portis's status unclear, this could make for a long season for the Skins.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
With the Terrell Owens era behind them, the Eagles look to rebound this season. And in the depth chart, the Eagles have some names that are legit. McNabb, Westbrook, Runyan, Kearse, and Dawkins. Yet, their December schedule leaves a bit to be desired: they play at Indy November 26; at home to the Panthers December 4; back on the road for three more at Washington, New York (Giants), and Dallas. Any momentum they have at this point will surely be tested.
NFC NORTH
No one doubts that the Bears will take the division. However, the attention here is going to be on the Vikings, and what kind of bounty they bring home this time, and of course, the swan-song of No. 4.
1. Chicago Bears
With guys like Brian Urlacher, Nathan Vasher, and Charles Tillman patrolling the defensive-side of the ball, it's still going to be a challenge for any team to score points. That said, shut-outs are a rarity in the NFL, so the Bears offense is going to have to step-it up to take the division. But make no mistake, in this division, they will have no problems.
2. Minnesota Vikings
Irony: both Vikings of old and new travelled around in boats, taking whatever bounty (booty?) they could find. And like the Vikings of old, travelling to a new world and having to take the bumps and bruises of a new beginning, so too will the Vikings of 2006. Their first three games are against playoff teams from last year, and this could prove to be a formidable hump to get over. Nonetheless, the last four weeks see them playing some of the weaker teams in the league, which could propel them into a wild-card berth.
3. Detroit Lions
Mike Martz has had much success as a coach in previous year's; however, his unique offensive playbook quickly became obsolete as opposing coach's soon caught on to his system. Of course, it helped having players like Tory Holt, Marshall Faulk, Issac Bruce, and Kurt Warner running those plays. Unfortunately in Detroit, the same name power and talent is lacking.
4. Green Bay Packers
But if Detroit is lacking in offense, the Green Bay Packers are lacking in everything. And it kills me to say this. Brett Favre's likely swan-song won't be a pretty one. Not much else to say. A few highlights few and far between much of what the team did last year: few touchdowns and numerous interceptions. The loss of Javon Walker doesn't help. I hope they make brown bags large enough to fit over the cheeseheads.
NFC SOUTH
Another tough division where attention will focus on the powerhouse Panthers, underachieving Falcon's, and some Bush.
1. Carolina Panthers
This division has the potential to be one of the toughest, and on paper, the Panther's have fewer reasons for concern than the other teams. With more teams going with a platoon in the back, the depth chart for the Panthers is going to be a benefit. So is a healthy Jake Dellhomme. Throw in Steve Smith, an MVP candidate already, and the offense is set. On defense, the Panther's have an offensive line, anchored by Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker, that combined for 34 sacks last season.
2. Atlanta Falcons
On both sides of the ball, the Falcons, on paper, should be, at the very least, 1-2 games behing the Panthers, if not even with them. However, after a dismal finish last season, the Falcon's faithful are beginning to lose patience. And rightfully so. With names like Vick, Dunn, Lelie, Malloy, and Hall on the roster, this team should be on top of the division.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs didn't do much this off-season, and they will probably pay for it in the regular season. They have a strong set of core players, but they still need an impact player or two to make, well, an impact.
4. New Orleans Saints
I find it hard not to cheer for the Saints. I like an underdog. And I like to see good people do well. Reggie Bush, who should be playing for the Texans right now, has the burden of restoring interest into a football team that has undergone some serious setbacks in recent years. This kid is going to be great. And the offense has the potential to put up some big numbers. Unfortunately, with their defense, of which not one starter had more than 100 tackles last season, opposing teams are going to be able to put up even bigger numbers.
NFC WEST
The 2005 NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks will have no problem the League's weakest division, but what about those other teams?
1. Seattle Seahawks
This is a no-brainer. In this division, the Packers would have a shot. Well, that may be stretching it, but barring a complete collapse of first team offense, the Seahawks can set their sites on the playoffs after week one. Or now too. The core from last year is still in tact, and after their loss to the Steelers in January, they want it even more.
2. St. Louis Rams
Six new defensive starters and a winner in Jim Haslett means the St. Louis Rams, often an "offense-only" team may have a more balanced team. Marc Bulger is first on the depth chart and while not flashy, completed about 68% of his passes last year. Combine that with Stephen Jackson, who will get the ball more this year, and Adam Timmerman making holes for
him, and the Rams may make some noise in a weak division.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Matt Leinart throws with his left arm - who cares if he slightly seperated his right one? Not that it matters this year. Give this team a couple of years (which has been the motto since the dawn of this franchise), and they will be the new Bengals. Opening the season against the '49ers all but guarantee's them a good start to the season.
4. San Francisco 49ers
I must dislike this team on principle - they were my older brother's childhood team, and much like the hated Toronto Maple Leafs, no matter how good they were, I thought they would preform poorly. Lucky for me, this will actual happen for the '49ers (and fingers crossed for the Leafs as well, although it appears they do not need my help). Much like the Browns, there is not much to say about this team, although I heard Calvin Johnson would make a great first choice.
We're continuing from yestersay's SEC West preview, noting that Auburn would be its champion. Onward to the East!
The Wildcats!! Kentucky (4-8, 1-7)
Finishing strong last year with a win over Vanderbilt, Kentucky looked good in flashes, but couldn't put enough together to make a good season. I think much is going to improve this season, including their great running back, Rafael Little. I just think that every other team in the East is going to do better.
Will lose: Florida, S.Carolina, LSU, Georgia
Could win: Louisville, Ole Miss, MSU, Vanderbilt, UT
Will win: TX St., Central Mich., LA-Monroe
UK won't beat any of the top-tier SEC teams, but they've got a shot to surprise Lousiville, though I think they'll lose a tight game. They can beat MSU on the road, but that's about it as Ole Miss and Vanderbilt should beat them at home.
The Volunteers!! ut (5-7, 2-6)
Yep, along with Bama, I think that ut will have a disappointing season, the second straight and probably last of Coach Fulmer's career in Knoxville. I just don't trust Eric Ainge enough to lead that offense, and he's given me no reason to do so. They've lost a bit on defense, and when that happens with a 5-6, the next season can't be any good.
Will lose: California, Florida, S.Carolina, LSU
Could win: Air Force, Memphis, UGa, Bama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, UK
Will win: Marshall
Air Force is always a weird team, either really good or really bad. I think UT will beat them and Memphis early in the season, but I'm not so optimistic after that. What will be an upset win at Georgia will be quickly tempered by loss to Bama, at Arkansas, and at Vanderbilt, before a meaningless win at UK. A very disappointing season indeed, and I think we'll be able to hear the wheels fall off in Knoxville from where I sit in Indianapolis.
The Commodores!! Vanderbilt (7-5, 4-4)
This is where the heart gets in the way of the brain's sensible picks, but I'll make 'em anyway. I think that, despite the absence of Jay Cutler, the Commodores can make a run to a bowl game this season. Coach Bobby Johnson has recruited well, as has been very good about developing talent through extensive red-shirting, and that strategy should reap benefits and surprise a lot of folks this year.
Will lose: Michigan, S.Carolina
Could win: Bama, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia, Florida, UK, UT
Will win: Tenn. St., Temple, Duke
The key to Vandy's season (as it is every season), is winning the close games, and Vandy has a lot of game this year that to me could go either way. I'm expecting a closer game than expected at Michigan (though still a loss), followed by an upset win at Bama. Road wins at Ole Miss and UK lead to Vandy clinching a 4-4 SEC record after beating UT for the second straight season.
The Bulldogs!! Georgia (8-4, 4-4)
After a what seems like a lengthy run at the top of the SEC East, Georgia falls down a bit, through absolutely no fault of their own. The Bulldogs trot out another senior, but first-year starter QB, though it worked well for them last year. I just think that the other two teams in the East have improved too much to Georgia to keep pace with a new QB.
Will lose: None.
Could win: S.Carolina, UT, Vanderbilt, Florida, Auburn, Ga. Tech
Will win: W.Kentucky, UAB, Colorado, Ole Miss, MSU, UK
Georgia's good enough to not have any sure losses on the schedule, but there's a lot of potential losses out there. I like their chances against Vanderbilt and Ga. Tech, but I have a feeling that UT can upset the Dawgs in Athens, and the brutal road games at S.Carolina, Florida, and Auburn should keep them from the top -- I'm guessing they lose all three games.
The Gamecocks!! South Carolina (10-2, 7-1)
Here comes Spurrier! Give him two years with a college quarterback, and lets see what the Fun'n'Gun can do. I think the Cocks can make a great splash this season, similar to what they did in Holtz's second season as well. We should see a lot of big things, including what will be called a monumental upset.
Will lose: None.
Could win: Georgia, Auburn, UT, Arkansas, Florida, Clemson
Will win: MSU, Wofford, FAU, UK, Vanderbilt, MTSU
I said it yesterday -- Auburn will be upset by the Gamecocks, as will Georgia. UT and Arkansas should be close, but S.Carolina wins there are hardly upsets these days. I think they'll lose to Florida, and be severely let down by losing to arch-rival Clemson as well.
The Gators!! Florida (12-0, 8-0)
Another second year head coach is about to earn his pay. Urban Meyer went undefeated in '04 at Utah, and I think he's going to do the same at Florida in '06. Chris Leak is a stud senior with competition lighting a fire under his feet in Gainesille, and could be a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy by the end of the season. Florida has a BRUTAL schedule, but great times win big games, and I think Florida has the horses to pull it off this season.
Will lose: None.
Could win: UT, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Vanderbilt, S.Carolina, FSU
Will win: So. Miss., Central Fla., UK, Bama, W.Carolina
Told you it was brutal -- I still don't think they lose a one of those games. Playing LSU and at Auburn ion back-to-back weeks will be tough, but that's college football these days. They'll have a week off before hosting Georgia, so they should be ok there. Vandy's a slight question mark as I'm sure there are a lot of players that remember the '05 Screw-Job-in-Gainesville, but I'm not sure if Vandy can hold the Gators this year. They'll beat Spurrier as he comes back to the Swamp, and should win (in overtime) against a great FSU squad.
There you have it -- this year, the SEC is Gator Bait. Florida beats Auburn yet again in the SEC Championship game and goes on to beat Ohio State in the BCS Championship game, despite being a double-digit underdog.
I'll keep track throughout the year to see how well I picked 'em. The first game starts tonight, and should be the first of S.Carolina's many wins this season. Enjoy the games, and welcome back to football season!!
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