Jay Cutler Vanderbilt

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We interrupt our regularly scheduled "Castro is dead" and "Israel vs. Hezbollah" posts to bring you something of TRUE importance: the NFL!

Today, we will look at the AFC:

AFC East:
1. Dolphins**
2. Patriots*
3. Bills
4. Jets

The Dolphins finished strong last year, winning their last six games. The addition of Daunte Culpepper can only make them better. Good enough to win the division?

Perhaps, but never count the Patriots out. They do more with less better than anyone.

Did I mention the Bills and Jets also play in this division? I use the word "play" loosely. They "show up for games" is probably a better description.

AFC North:
1. Bengals**
2. Ravens
3. Steelers
4. Browns

Sorry Steeler fans, but the Bengals win this one again. While Marvin Lewis is doing his best to channel Al Davis by doing more scouting at police stations than colleges, even the team's legal problems cannot bring these Bengals down. They are the class of the AFC North, even if they have too many players with no class.

Even though I have the Ravens in second place, don't be fooled: They are a .500 team. They will be better with Steve McNair and Derrick Mason together again, but this team is OLD! They will not be in the playoffs unless they get lucky.

The Steelers drop to third place because the retirement of Jerome Bettis legitimately hurts them. Duce Staley is no "Bus". Losing Antwaan Randle El does not help either. They will also be around a .500 team.

I mostly like what the Browns have done, but their season depends on how successful quarterback Charlie Frye is. If Frye is going to be the franchise QB they need, he will have to show a lot more this year. Expect the Browns to start slowly and pick up steam as the season moves along, finishing with 6-7 wins.

AFC South:
1. Colts**
2. Jaguars
3. Texans
4. Titans

Can the Colts be just as successful without Edgerrin James? No, but they will be successful enough. Between Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai, they should be able to put together enough of a running game to keep defenses honest. Expect them to get 10-12 wins.

The Jaguars are a solid team, but not exceptional. They have talent, but can their talent stay healthy? RB "Fragile" Fred Taylor is getting old. QB Byron Leftwich tries to play through his pain, but his problem centers on his immobility, which leads to him getting hurt much too often. Don't expect another 12 win season like last year, but they MIGHT still make the playoffs IF they stay healthy.

The enigma in this division is the Texans. Are they really as bad as they played last year? My gut feeling is that new coach Gary Kubiak will get them playing up to their potential. Just how much potential remains to be seen.

The Titans made all the right moves in the draft this year, picking up QB Vince Young and RB LenDale White. However, this is still a rebuilding year for the Titans.

AFC West:
1. Broncos**
2. Chargers*
3. Chiefs
4. Raiders

This division is the cream of the AFC's crop. Any of the top three teams could win the division, but at least two of them should make the playoffs.

The Broncos are certainly no worse than last year. Losing RB Mike Anderson will not hurt, as they have Tatum Bell and Ron Dayne as one of the deepest running tandems in the NFL. QB Jake Plummer might feel a little pressure from rookie Jay Cutler, but don't expect to see Cutler this year.

The man to watch on the Chargers will be QB Phil Rivers. Don't be surprised if he rocks the NFL in his first season as starter. The Chargers knew what they were doing when they got rid of Drew Brees.

I put the Chiefs in third place because I am not sold on head coach Herm Edwards. Add in the Chiefs' swiss cheese defense, and there will be some rebuilding going on in Kansas City. On the plus side, RB Larry Johnson will keep this team competitive. They should get 7-9 wins.

Last is my favorite team, the Raiders. I love the Raiders. I liked the hiring of Art Shell. I didn't like the addition of QB Aaron Brooks. While he might do a little better with the Raiders than he did with the Saints, don't be fooled. He is a loser. On the bright side, they might get the first pick in the draft next year.

MY PREDICTION FOR THE AFC:
The Colts have the horses to get there, but the double whammy jinxes of Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning will keep them out of the Super Bowl.

If QB Carson Palmer returns to last year's form, the Bengals rule the AFC.

**- projected division winner
*-projected wild card team

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I have a very strong believe that two key elements win football games in the NFL; the third is usually a result of the two. These are greater 3rd down conversion efficiency and greater time of possession; the third is greater total yards, usually a result of the two. If your team is following the formula and not winning the game there is a problem, if your team is winning the game without following the formula there is a problem, because it means they got lucky. The following is a table I've made based on this past weekend' games following the formula.

Games

>% 3rd Down Conversions

>Time of Pocession

Winner

Colts vs. Rams

Rams

Rams

Rams

Browns vs. Eagles

Eagles

Eagles

Eagles

Broncos vs. Lions

Broncos

Broncos

Lions

Buccaneers vs. Jets

Buccaneers

Buccaneers

Buccaneers

Giants vs. Ravens

Ravens

Ravens

Giants

Falcons vs. Patriots

Falcons

Falcons

Falcons

Bears vs. 49ers

49ers

49ers

49ers

Steelers vs. Cardinals

Cardinals

Cardinals

Cardinals

Jaguars vs. Dolphins

Dolphins

Dolphins

Jaguars

Panthers vs. Bills

Bills

Bills

Panthers

Saints vs. Titans

Saints

Saints

Saints

Texans vs. Chiefs

Texans

Texans

Texans

Cowboys vs. Seahawks

Seahawks

Cowboys

Cowboys

Chargers vs. Packers

Chargers

Chargers

Chargers

Bengals vs. Redskins

Redskins

Bengals

Bengals

Raiders vs. Vikings

Raiders

Vikings

Raiders

The anomalies are highlighted in yellow and I will write a short review of each game.

The Rams beat the Colts with everything 19-17. Passing, running, even only making 1 of 3 attempted field goals, the Rams beat the Colts by two points. The Colts came out with an onside kick to start the game, nice touch, but didn't win the game. The Rams unfortunately with the dominating numbers were unable to put the corresponding points on the board, could be a problem. I don't know if the Colts are going to be okay without Edgerrin James, the running game was pathetic only racking up 38 yards. We shall see.

The Eagles beat the Browns 20-7, they had it all, the whole winning formula, except of course for the penalties, but hey it was a preseason game. With work I think the Eagles will be serious contenders in the NFC east. The Browns, well what is there to say, even if they improve their game, there is no way they are going to make it past the Bengals and Steelers period.

The Broncos should be disappointed in themselves, they should have won the game, instead they lost by seven points 20-13. Jay Cutler came out and had a wonderful performance, they were on top in every aspect of the game, of course except for those four fumbles, only two of which were lost, but in this game it is important to hold on to the ball. Overall the lesson will be learned and I think the Broncos will be strong this year, if Cutler is at the helm, I don't think Plummer can pull it off. As for the Lions, enjoy your luck while you have it, with Kitna as the starting QB I am not sure what they are going to be able to do in the league, but in the NFC north I am not sure if they will have to do that much to get somewhere.

The Buccaneers beat the Jets 16-3. The Buc's looked good overall, rushing, passing, special teams could use some work, but I think they will be close to the top, if not on the top of the NFC south. I'm not sure if they will have another shot at the playoffs, but it will be interesting to keep your eye on the Buccaneers. The Jets looked apathetic with a little more then half of the yardage the Jets racked up. Running the ball could be a problem for them as well as the offensive line protecting the quarterback, granted if Pennington goes out this year Ramsey may be able to handle it, then again maybe not. I just don't see the Jets laying eyes on the playoffs this year.

The Giants beat the Ravens 17-16 in what was a pretty even game. Although the Ravens did have a slightly higher chance of winning according to the formula, penalties will kill. The teams were even on turnovers both loosing one fumble a piece and no interceptions. Steve McNair didn't look too bad for his nervous-racked first game, and overall I think both of these teams have opportunities to go somewhere. It is necessary to mention that both of these teams are in two of the most difficult divisions in the NFL right now. The Ravens must get above the Bengals and super bowl champion Steelers, while the Giants have to fight the Redskins, Cowboys, and Eagles to get to the top again this year.

The Falcons beat the Patriots by a field goal 26-23. The Patriots were only slightly behind the Falcons although they did lose one fumble. The back-up QB's looked good overall, but I think that Atlanta has more talent on the receiving end of the ball, even into the third string. With Vick healthy and mature I think that Atlanta can easily get to the playoffs while the Patriots need to get stronger, but in their division they may make it anyway.

The 49ers beat the Bears 28-14. With Thomas Jones out with a hamstring and Cedric Benson not playing yet the Bears running game was pathetic with only 29 yards the entire game. It was a combination of that and loosing two fumbles that drove the bears into the ground, but healthy, they make see another go in the playoffs; at least I am pretty sure of it. The 49ers looked good with no turnovers and a strong passing attack with running yards to back it, playoff contending, maybe, I will give that much maybe, but highly doubtful in my opinion.

The Steelers lost to the Cardinals 13-21. With the numbers the Steelers had they should have been converting touchdowns instead of kicking field goals, they need to work on that if they want to see the super bowl again this year. The Cardinals looked good despite Leinart's absence, although the back-up Navarre did throw 2 interceptions. I don't think I'll ever be able to respect Leinart given the fact that he didn't even show up, talk about un-professional, uh, disgusted. With James in the backfield and a healthy Warner Arizona could definitely see the playoffs with some work.

The Jaguars beat the Dolphins although the Dolphins had the better numbers 31-26. The Jaguars attack was off balance with more passing then rushing and in my opinion that won't last long in this NFL, you need both. Penalties were horrendous for the Jags as well with over a football field of yards lost (109). The Dolphins really should've won this game, but when you have two kickers miss a 48 yard kick and 47 yard kick, you won't see the playoffs. The way that kicking has become important to this game, often being a game winner, you need better then that, at least one dependable and consistent guy, I don't think the Dolphins have it.

The Panthers beat the Bills by one point with all of their points in the first quarter. In order to improve; the offensive line for the Bills needs to protect their quarterback from being sacked, Holcomb needs to be careful with his passes, and they must bring down the penalties, with 107 yards taken away, it is that much harder to win. The Panthers need to hold on to the ball and protect it; giving away fumble is not fun. Overall both teams looked pretty weak, especially on third down. I don't think either team will bask in playoff glory.

The Saints took down the Titans by 3, 19-16, with Reggie Bush attracting lots of attention. The Saints numbers were good except for those ugly turnovers two interceptions and one fumble. The kicking game was consistent and with Brees and Bush, the Saints will be contenders this year. The Titans numbers were not too bad, of course they need to work on fewer penalties, but that goes for everyone. I'm not sure how competitive the AFC south is going to be, but the Titans might be there.

The Texans won a game! Congratulations to all Houston fans. They beat the Chiefs 24-14 with great numbers overall minus the one fumble lost. The Texans look like a totally different team from last year, they may be close to the top this year as opposed to last year. The Chiefs passing yards were laughable and 3rd down efficiency needs to improve in order for them to win games. The Chiefs may be second to the Broncos, but it will take vast improvement to get to that point.

How about them Cowboys, they took down the Seahawks 13-3. It was definitely not the prettiest game in football, but it was promising. The back-up quarterback Tony Romo played the entire game for the Cowboys and did a pretty damn good job, of course minus the opening possession, he is allowed his nervous moments. The questionable offensive line held up pretty well protecting Romo and he was smart with the ball with not one interception. Cowboys watch the penalties, but otherwise contender, watch out Giants here we come! The Seahawks did not resemble the team that went to the super bowl last year. Alexander's rushing average was only 2.2 yards/rush and they didn't get in to the end zone at all. I don't know about the Seahawks, maybe they were just sick.

The Packers performance was extremely horrible in their loss to the San Diego Chargers 17-3. I am sad to say that I don't think the Packers are going to rebound into something resembling a winning season, sorry Farve. The Chargers on the other hand, with improvement in the running yards, are going to be a good team, possibly playoff bound, but against the Broncos they will have to put in some work.

The Bengals came out looking pretty impressive beating the Redskins 19-3. Brunell came out with an interception that led to an impressive tackle by Clinton Portis that led to Portis' separated left shoulder, ouch. Collins then looked pretty horrible allowing the Bengals to get a safety by intentionally grounding the football in the end zone, ouch. If the Redskins can rebound from this game healthy great, but it still won't be enough for them in the NFC east, sorry. The Bengals, even without their starter, Carson Palmer, looked good. They need to improve on their third down efficiency, but otherwise the Bengals will see the playoffs.

Last, but not least, the Raiders and the Vikings. The Raiders walked away with the W, winning 16-13, but in my opinion digressing from the opening performance in the Hall of Fame game. I'm not sure Brooks should be the starter with his awful performance, but I don't know if Walter is even a candidate after he threw two interceptions. The Vikings didn't look too bad, but I don't think these teams are playoff bound.

Next games and my predictions of winners: Of course these are preseason games and hard to predict, anything can happen.

Game

Winner

Eagles Ravens

Ravens

Chiefs Giants

Giants

Bengals Bills

Bengals

Lions Browns

Lions

Chargers Bears

Bears

Panthers Jaguars

Jaguars

Dolphins Buccaneers

Buccaneers

Falcons Packers

Falcons

Cardinals Patriots

Patriots

Vikings Steelers

Steelers

Texans Rams

Rams

Jets Redskins

Redskins

Titans Broncos

Broncos

Seahawks Colts

Colts

49ers Raiders

Raiders

Cowboys Saints

Cowboys