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Wow, what does this do to Jake Plummer in the Mile High City? Wow. Sorry, already said that.
There's some work to do for the first first round selection from Vanderbilt since 1986 - Cutler. His mechanics are not as solid as Matt Leinart, but he makes up for that with just pure play making ability. He can make all of the throws. The ball comes out of his hand hot. But, against a hard rush, he didn't set his feet and throw as he should (see the LSU film). His offensive line wasn't nearly as good as Leinart's or Young's but he'll have to fight off those bad habits.
He has the escapability vis a vis Young, but he's a gutty kid who carried Vandy through his entire four years in Nashville. In the Florida game, pulled that team through every tough situation, except in the last overtime, but everyone in the SEC knew how good he was. Now, he goes to Denver to work with Mike Shanahan, who must either believe wholeheartedly in Cutler or not much more in Jake Plummer.
2006 PREVIEW, VERY, VERY OMG FAST: THE SEC
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Kickoff of the SEC season is a little less than four hours away, a good time, it would seem, for SMQ to put up some conference predictions, wouldn't you say?
The SEC hasn't had a consensus, head-and-shoulders favorite in about a decade, and the morass is as murky as ever. All agree Florida, Auburn, LSU, Tennessee and Georgia will be worthy competitors for a league championship. All know Alabama and probably Arkansas and South Carolina, maybe Ole Miss, are quality competition with very high and attainable postseason hopes and represent the perpetual threat of an upset that puts a screeching halt to all previous speculation; i.e., all projections, as always, are tentative. But some (say, Arkansas) are more tentative than others (Kentucky).
For the sake of time, preliminaries have been dispensed.
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH (SMQ BlogPoll Ranking)
This is not a power poll...
1. Florida (#6)
This is one terrifying defense, both for opponents bound to be routinely Siler-smashed by a devastating front seven and to Gator fans desperately praying no quarterback gets off a pass into the blissfully young secondary. Much bigger problems include the offensive line and running game in general, which is not going to help Chris Leak go out with the kind of bang he’d like if his blazing receiver squadron again are banned from taking routes further than ten yards downfield this year. Not a ringing endorsement, but SMQ's giving Urban Meyer he benefit of the doubt here. He scrapped the option and opened things up a little later on in the season, and the end results against Florida State and Iowa were good omens. Still, though, this is the defense that ought to solidify the Gators’ newfound status as a more conservative (relative to the "Fun 'N Gun," elements of which carried over throughout the Zook Era), primarily defensive-minded team.
2. Auburn (#9)
Kenny Irons, surgical play-action game, etc. Auburn’s very good. SMQ's lingering doubts about the Tigers on a mythical title level derive from their defensive line, which is hell on the pass rush and has done well stopping the run, but remains a little light in the pants to run the table in a league stocked with quality power rushers; the linebackers are still all safeties. The graduation of Tommy Jackson at DT and OTs Marcus McNeil and Troy Reddick will add a full mile per gallon to team bus trips, and is probably being underrated in terms of how much the team will miss them.
3. LSU (#10)
Including quarterback, this is the best and deepest set of skill guys in the league, with questions lingering instead on both lines. On defense, end Melvin Oliver and especially the tackles, Kyle Williams and Claude Wroten, seemed to mean the world to the defense, and live forever in the nightmares of Brodie Croyle and Chris Leak; new young behemoths such as Glenn Dorsey will not have the same effects immediately. Otherwise, the only potential derailment comes via an unexpected QB meltdown/controversy of the malignant variety.
4. Tennessee (#15)
See above, minus the "good problem to have" quarterback situation: Tennessee’s defensive line was an unstoppable force and an unmovable object, the only really real, consistent positive in a dismal season, and, like LSU's, has largely shuffled off to seek fame and fortune among the professionals. Erik Ainge begins working without a safety net, i.e. Rick Clausen or Brent Schaeffer, a sign of certain gore if David Cutcliffe's hypnotic mind tricks fail to turn the skittish junior into Peyton Manning. Weapons at receiver and in the running game are available if the ball can reach them often enough.
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It's sink or swim for Erik Ainge and Tennessee
5. Georgia (#22)
Hope justifiably springs eternal where Mark Richt and three of the last four SEC East title are concerned, but not when assessing UGA's quarterback, offensive line, defensive line and secondary situations, all of which feature hordes of newbies moving into long-occupied positions. That pretty much everyone outside of SMQ regards the Bulldogs as surefire division contenders again in spite of such youth is a testament to the stability Richt's instilled in a short time. But that doesn't get you past eight wins by itself.
6. Arkansas
SMQ had guessed just checking out the huge number of returning players and last year’s vast start-to-finish improvement that the Razorbacks would be among his Blog Poll top 25, but the final tally left them just outside. He should say for the record that, while Phil Steele's going slightly overboard at No. 13 on a team with such quarterbacking uncertainty, Arkansas' good on both lines, can run (can really, really run) and stop the run, is going to be a formidable out for the league's big boys, and possibly a West contender. But do not scar Mitch Mustain for life by tossing him to the dogs against USC, SMQ begs.
7. Alabama
The Crimson Tide were among the handful of teams â€" Penn State, UCLA, and Texas Tech among them â€" who rode a crest of coalescing senior leadership to a "career year" in '05, but who are likely to slip back into more familiar patterns this fall. For Alabama under the Perplexed-Looking Mike Shula, that means six or seven wins and looming "hot seat" intonations for the coach by random bowl time, extensions be damned. That assessment might send Bammer fans into a crimson rage, but the attrition from last year’s Mack truck defense â€" just good enough to put an offense led by an experienced quarterback over the top as it was â€" will make too much difference for even a sober John Parker Wilson to make up in his first year behind center.
8. South Carolina
A specter is haunting the secondaries of the Southeast…the specter of Sidney Rice! Were it only that the rest of the team had the ability of the freakish, under-exposed sophomore, the 'Cocks wouldn't need another immensely talented apparition, Steve Spurrier, on the sideline to raise them this high. Without a reliable running game and attrition hitting hard a quality defense, USC isn't in a position to cash in on 2005's late success just yet.
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Who dares attempt to cover Sidney Rice?
9. Ole Miss
Has the feel of a team lurking around the declaration of "sleeping giant" status on the strength of The Orgeron's recruiting prowess in the nation's best football state, but, like fellow 3-8 victim Arizona out West, there’s no room here to rise. Being better, while replacing virtually all of the defensive line and receivers and breaking in talented transfers Brent Schaeffer and BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the offensive backfield, means beating going back to beating the Vanderbilts and only losing by one touchdown instead of two (or, in the case of Mississippi State, three). Beware the linebackers, though, where Patrick Willis figures to rock even while shedding the memorable club from which he drew most of his strength during his prolific '05 campaign.
10. Mississippi State
Another case of "improvement" that will result in tangibly in only a few more rings per cowbell (god help us if State ever gets on a roll, and all-consuming ESPN does the inevitable cowbell feature; the entire state would go temporarily deaf by the validation). SMQ, being familiar with the books on a few recent Bulldog recruits from their high school days, knows this team has some quality talent, but none of it is on offense, where a new backfield crop will only exacerbate the woeful prospects at quarterback and in the passing game in general. Ought to keep more games within striking distance, and take solace in that.
11. Kentucky
One high-quality player, in this case Rafael Little, does not a competitor make, and Kentucky's myriad deficiencies across the field are omnipresent and show no signs of allowing the 'Cats anywhere near the cellar door. What is the last winning team UK took down?
12. Vanderbilt
Might have all the air of a team "on the rise" after upsetting Tennessee, terrifying Florida and coming very, very close to breaking even in-conference, but at the same time lost to Middle Tennessee State with a first round draft choice, becoming in the process the only I-A team to lose to a Sun Belt program. The odds of the whole being better without Jay Cutler are next to nil.
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