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I have a very strong believe that two key elements win football games in the NFL; the third is usually a result of the two. These are greater 3rd down conversion efficiency and greater time of possession; the third is greater total yards, usually a result of the two. If your team is following the formula and not winning the game there is a problem, if your team is winning the game without following the formula there is a problem, because it means they got lucky. The following is a table I've made based on this past weekend' games following the formula.
Games >% 3rd Down Conversions >Time of Pocession Winner Colts vs. Rams Rams Rams Rams Browns vs. Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Broncos vs. Lions Broncos Broncos Lions Buccaneers vs. Jets Buccaneers Buccaneers Buccaneers Giants vs. Ravens Ravens Ravens Giants Falcons vs. Patriots Falcons Falcons Falcons Bears vs. 49ers 49ers 49ers 49ers Steelers vs. Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals Jaguars vs. Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Jaguars Panthers vs. Bills Bills Bills Panthers Saints vs. Titans Saints Saints Saints Texans vs. Chiefs Texans Texans Texans Cowboys vs. Seahawks Seahawks Cowboys Cowboys Chargers vs. Packers Chargers Chargers Chargers Bengals vs. Redskins Redskins Bengals Bengals Raiders vs. Vikings Raiders Vikings Raiders
The Rams beat the Colts with everything 19-17. Passing, running, even only making 1 of 3 attempted field goals, the Rams beat the Colts by two points. The Colts came out with an onside kick to start the game, nice touch, but didn't win the game. The Rams unfortunately with the dominating numbers were unable to put the corresponding points on the board, could be a problem. I don't know if the Colts are going to be okay without Edgerrin James, the running game was pathetic only racking up 38 yards. We shall see. The Eagles beat the Browns 20-7, they had it all, the whole winning formula, except of course for the penalties, but hey it was a preseason game. With work I think the Eagles will be serious contenders in the NFC east. The Browns, well what is there to say, even if they improve their game, there is no way they are going to make it past the Bengals and Steelers period. The Broncos should be disappointed in themselves, they should have won the game, instead they lost by seven points 20-13. Jay Cutler came out and had a wonderful performance, they were on top in every aspect of the game, of course except for those four fumbles, only two of which were lost, but in this game it is important to hold on to the ball. Overall the lesson will be learned and I think the Broncos will be strong this year, if Cutler is at the helm, I don't think Plummer can pull it off. As for the Lions, enjoy your luck while you have it, with Kitna as the starting QB I am not sure what they are going to be able to do in the league, but in the NFC north I am not sure if they will have to do that much to get somewhere. The Buccaneers beat the Jets 16-3. The Buc's looked good overall, rushing, passing, special teams could use some work, but I think they will be close to the top, if not on the top of the NFC south. I'm not sure if they will have another shot at the playoffs, but it will be interesting to keep your eye on the Buccaneers. The Jets looked apathetic with a little more then half of the yardage the Jets racked up. Running the ball could be a problem for them as well as the offensive line protecting the quarterback, granted if Pennington goes out this year Ramsey may be able to handle it, then again maybe not. I just don't see the Jets laying eyes on the playoffs this year. The Giants beat the Ravens 17-16 in what was a pretty even game. Although the Ravens did have a slightly higher chance of winning according to the formula, penalties will kill. The teams were even on turnovers both loosing one fumble a piece and no interceptions. Steve McNair didn't look too bad for his nervous-racked first game, and overall I think both of these teams have opportunities to go somewhere. It is necessary to mention that both of these teams are in two of the most difficult divisions in the NFL right now. The Ravens must get above the Bengals and super bowl champion Steelers, while the Giants have to fight the Redskins, Cowboys, and Eagles to get to the top again this year. The Falcons beat the Patriots by a field goal 26-23. The Patriots were only slightly behind the Falcons although they did lose one fumble. The back-up QB's looked good overall, but I think that Atlanta has more talent on the receiving end of the ball, even into the third string. With Vick healthy and mature I think that Atlanta can easily get to the playoffs while the Patriots need to get stronger, but in their division they may make it anyway. The 49ers beat the Bears 28-14. With Thomas Jones out with a hamstring and Cedric Benson not playing yet the Bears running game was pathetic with only 29 yards the entire game. It was a combination of that and loosing two fumbles that drove the bears into the ground, but healthy, they make see another go in the playoffs; at least I am pretty sure of it. The 49ers looked good with no turnovers and a strong passing attack with running yards to back it, playoff contending, maybe, I will give that much maybe, but highly doubtful in my opinion. The Steelers lost to the Cardinals 13-21. With the numbers the Steelers had they should have been converting touchdowns instead of kicking field goals, they need to work on that if they want to see the super bowl again this year. The Cardinals looked good despite Leinart's absence, although the back-up Navarre did throw 2 interceptions. I don't think I'll ever be able to respect Leinart given the fact that he didn't even show up, talk about un-professional, uh, disgusted. With James in the backfield and a healthy Warner Arizona could definitely see the playoffs with some work. The Jaguars beat the Dolphins although the Dolphins had the better numbers 31-26. The Jaguars attack was off balance with more passing then rushing and in my opinion that won't last long in this NFL, you need both. Penalties were horrendous for the Jags as well with over a football field of yards lost (109). The Dolphins really should've won this game, but when you have two kickers miss a 48 yard kick and 47 yard kick, you won't see the playoffs. The way that kicking has become important to this game, often being a game winner, you need better then that, at least one dependable and consistent guy, I don't think the Dolphins have it. The Panthers beat the Bills by one point with all of their points in the first quarter. In order to improve; the offensive line for the Bills needs to protect their quarterback from being sacked, Holcomb needs to be careful with his passes, and they must bring down the penalties, with 107 yards taken away, it is that much harder to win. The Panthers need to hold on to the ball and protect it; giving away fumble is not fun. Overall both teams looked pretty weak, especially on third down. I don't think either team will bask in playoff glory. The Saints took down the Titans by 3, 19-16, with Reggie Bush attracting lots of attention. The Saints numbers were good except for those ugly turnovers two interceptions and one fumble. The kicking game was consistent and with Brees and Bush, the Saints will be contenders this year. The Titans numbers were not too bad, of course they need to work on fewer penalties, but that goes for everyone. I'm not sure how competitive the AFC south is going to be, but the Titans might be there. The Texans won a game! Congratulations to all Houston fans. They beat the Chiefs 24-14 with great numbers overall minus the one fumble lost. The Texans look like a totally different team from last year, they may be close to the top this year as opposed to last year. The Chiefs passing yards were laughable and 3rd down efficiency needs to improve in order for them to win games. The Chiefs may be second to the Broncos, but it will take vast improvement to get to that point. How about them Cowboys, they took down the Seahawks 13-3. It was definitely not the prettiest game in football, but it was promising. The back-up quarterback Tony Romo played the entire game for the Cowboys and did a pretty damn good job, of course minus the opening possession, he is allowed his nervous moments. The questionable offensive line held up pretty well protecting Romo and he was smart with the ball with not one interception. Cowboys watch the penalties, but otherwise contender, watch out Giants here we come! The Seahawks did not resemble the team that went to the super bowl last year. Alexander's rushing average was only 2.2 yards/rush and they didn't get in to the end zone at all. I don't know about the Seahawks, maybe they were just sick. The Packers performance was extremely horrible in their loss to the San Diego Chargers 17-3. I am sad to say that I don't think the Packers are going to rebound into something resembling a winning season, sorry Farve. The Chargers on the other hand, with improvement in the running yards, are going to be a good team, possibly playoff bound, but against the Broncos they will have to put in some work. The Bengals came out looking pretty impressive beating the Redskins 19-3. Brunell came out with an interception that led to an impressive tackle by Clinton Portis that led to Portis' separated left shoulder, ouch. Collins then looked pretty horrible allowing the Bengals to get a safety by intentionally grounding the football in the end zone, ouch. If the Redskins can rebound from this game healthy great, but it still won't be enough for them in the NFC east, sorry. The Bengals, even without their starter, Carson Palmer, looked good. They need to improve on their third down efficiency, but otherwise the Bengals will see the playoffs. Last, but not least, the Raiders and the Vikings. The Raiders walked away with the W, winning 16-13, but in my opinion digressing from the opening performance in the Hall of Fame game. I'm not sure Brooks should be the starter with his awful performance, but I don't know if Walter is even a candidate after he threw two interceptions. The Vikings didn't look too bad, but I don't think these teams are playoff bound. Next games and my predictions of winners: Of course these are preseason games and hard to predict, anything can happen. Game Winner Eagles Ravens Ravens Chiefs Giants Giants Bengals Bills Bengals Lions Browns Lions Chargers Bears Bears Panthers Jaguars Jaguars Dolphins Buccaneers Buccaneers Falcons Packers Falcons Cardinals Patriots Patriots Vikings Steelers Steelers Texans Rams Rams Jets Redskins Redskins Titans Broncos Broncos Seahawks Colts Colts 49ers Raiders Raiders Cowboys Saints Cowboys
Gregg’s Gator Season Projections It’s the most exciting times of the year, the beginning of Football Season!!!! Fans all over the country are waiting with anticipation. Will this be the season? What freshman will step up? Can we beat our rivals? This plus hundreds of other questions beckon the next few weeks. Last season, I predicted the Gators would go 9-2 in the regular season with losses to Alabama and LSU. I got that right but I did not see the South Carolina loss coming. Will I see it coming this season? Keep reading and you’ll find out. Game 1 Southern Miss. HOME September 2 The Gators start the season with Southern Miss. from Conference USA who are coming off a 7-5 season with a win over Arkansas St. in the New Orleans Bowl. Yes, the same Southern Miss. team that gave Alabama all they could handle in their opener last season before losing 30 to 21. Southern Miss. does not have the defensive line talent to really test the Gators and keep Meyer’s offense in check. But if their front seven are playing in our backfield and Leak is on his back, this will be a really long season for Meyer and the gang. I expect the Golden Eagles to wreak some havoc and with a veteran offensive line to keep it close and may provide a real scare if the Gators don’t come out ready to play. Odds of winning: 85% Final Score: Florida 34 Southern Miss. 17 Record: 1-0 (SEC 0-0) Game 2 Central Florida HOME September 9 UF’s second straight C-USA opponent, this time it is their in state little step-child rival Central Florida. The problem is if they treat the Golden Knights like a step-child it may come back to haunt them. Led by QB, Stephen Moffett and C-USA Freshman of the year RB Kevin Smith, UCF can be a dangerous offensive team. The problem is their defense was dreadful in 2005. Look for Leak and company to get the offense on track with big plays out of the WR’s, just in time for Tennessee. Odds of winning: 85% Final Score: Florida 44 UCF 24 Record: 2-0 (SEC 0-0) Game 3 Tennessee AWAY September 16 The Gators first road game of the year is a MUST win. The SEC East is clearly the weaker division and Tennessee is 4th best team in my opinion. So losing to a mediocre Tennessee team and SEC East rival would be nothing short of a disaster for the Gators with the toughest part of their schedule upcoming. I expect Florida’s front seven to control the game. An improved Erik Ainge will be at the helm for Tennessee this season but the Vols do not have the talent surrounding him to beat the better teams in the SEC. Odds of winning: 60% Final Score: Florida 23 Tennessee 17 Record: 3-0 (SEC 1-0) Game 4 Kentucky HOME September 23 Kentucky does not bring much to the table. This is most likely Rich Brooks last season and to get the Wildcats to win more than 5 games would be a major accomplishment. One of the easiest games on the Gators schedule, expect Tim Tebow to see plenty of action in the second half as Leak rests up for one of the toughest stretch of games in recent Gator memory. Odds of winning: 90% Final Score: Florida 45 Kentucky 15 Record: 4-0 (SEC 2-0) Game 5 Alabama HOME September 30 This is the time of the season that will make or break this team. First up is Alabama. A revenge game for the Gators as the Tide visits Gainesville. Last time the Tide came into Gainesville, Shaun Alexander ran all over the UF defense. Alabama does not have Alexander but they do have a very good running game led by senior, Kenneth Darby. Although Alabama only returns 4 starters on defense I still see the Gator’s offense struggling to score points. It’s just one of those match ups where Alabama always plays us tough. Fortunately, the loss of QB Brodie Croyle to the NFL combined with Tyrone Prothro (likely out this season) while still recovering from that horrific broken leg suffered in last year’s game, will enable the Gator defense to keep Alabama’s one dimensional attack in check. Odds of winning: 60% Final Score: Florida 23 Alabama 16 Record: 5-0 (SEC 3-0) Game 6 LSU HOME October 7 Another revenge game for the Gators. Although UF is coming off two straight losses to the Tigers, one could argue that the Gators have out played LSU the last four years. Unless UF’s offensive line really improves in the first half of the season, I have trouble seeing how they can control the line of scrimmage consistently enough against LSU’s blitzing schemes. The Gator defense will also have trouble matching up against arguably the best group of WR’s in the SEC (the other being UF’s). Florida’s weakness in the secondary going against LSU’s speed and playmaking will prove the Gators downfall. I see this as a back and forth game but in recent memory the Gators always had one or two games at home where they really struggle. I feel this will be one of them. Look for LSU to force a key fourth quarter turnover as UF’s offensive line can’t pick up the blitz. Odds of winning: 50% Final Score: Florida 24 LSU 27 Record: 5-1 (SEC 3-1) Game 7 Auburn AWAY October 14 In my opinion, the toughest game of the year for Florida. On the road against Auburn has always been a black hole for the Gators. I was there in 1995 for one of our few wins against Auburn and I hope to be there again seeing another win. More than likely one of those may not happen. I’ll be there, but I’m not predicting a victory. Florida’s inability to run the football consistently will really be exploited in this game. Auburn will control the clock using their power running game with Kenny Irons and will eventually wear down UF’s front seven. I also see Florida turning the ball over early and often and playing from behind the entire game. Odds of winning: 30% Final Score: Florida 17 Auburn 30 Record: 5-2 (SEC 3-2) Game 8 Georgia Jacksonville October 28 Coming off two straight losses and a bye week, for the second season in a row, Meyer will have his team refocused to take on Georgia. Despite Georgia’s high early season ranking, I see this Bulldog team with a lot of holes and they start at QB and WR. Joe Tereshinski is expected to start the season and while I believe he’ll be improved from last year’s Florida " Georgia game, he does not have the proven play makers at wide receiver. However Georgia does have a good running game led by Thomas Brown and Danny Ware. The Bulldogs also possess one of the best defensive ends in the nation in Quentin Moses who will give the Gator offensive line fits. Florida always seems to have Georgia’s number and I don’t expect this year to be any different. Leak has always played well against Georgia and look for him to rebound from two straight losses and have one of his best games of the season. Odds of winning: 60% Final Score: Florida 26 Georgia 17 Record: 6-2 (SEC 4-2) Game 9 Vanderbilt AWAY November 4 I said Vandy wouldn’t be a pushover last year and they gave Florida all they could handle. Jay Cutler had his best game of the year as he shredded UF’s secondary. With Cutler gone to the NFL, this year it should be an easy task even though Florida has to travel to Nashville. I just hope this Gator team stays focused after their toughest stretch of games and with South Carolina and the ol’ ball coach on the horizon. . Odds of winning: 80% Final Score: Florida 37 Vanderbilt 10 Record: 7-2 (SEC 5-2) Game 10 South Carolina HOME November 11 I thought South Carolina was going to be outgunned by the Gators last year but Spurrier devised a great game plan and pulled off the upset. This year he comes back to Gainesville and will try to use some of that magic he had for so many years in the Swamp. Led by outstanding wideout Sidney Rice and QB Blake Mitchell, the Gamecocks will test the Gator secondary. But with only 3 returning starters from last years defense I just don’t see South Carolina with enough talent and depth to stop the Gators. I see this as a close game with Florida picking off a late 4th quarter drive from South Carolina to seal the victory. Odds of winning: 60% Final Score: Florida 31 South Carolina 24 Record: 8-2 (SEC 6-2) Game 11 Western Carolina HOME November 18 This is the famous extra game which was added this season. With FSU looming on the horizon expect Tim Tebow to see plenty of action along with the second and third stringers. This will Chris Leak’s final home game but only expect him to play for a quarter. Odds of winning: 98% Final Score: Florida 55 Western Carolina 6 Record: 9-2 (SEC 6-2) Game 12 Florida State AWAY November 25 Last time the Gators went up to Tallahassee, Ron Zook was a lame duck coach and we pulled off something we could never do in the Spurrier era, WIN!! The Gators won one for the Zooker and FSU may be on the brink of winning one last home game against Florida for Bobby Bowden. I’m not sure how long Bobby’s going to continue coaching but if he keeps his son, Jeff Bowden around, you can be sure it’s going to be a shorter stint. We all know Noles fans hate Jeff and FSU hasn’t been able to run the ball effectively the last few years. FSU is led by the best QB in the ACC, Drew Weatherford, and some of the best young WR’s in the country in 6’6” Greg Carr & De’Cody Fagg. FSU has a lot to replace on a defense that has not been as solid as it has in years’ past. I expect a back and forth battle with Leak guiding a last minute game winning drive. Odds of winning: 40% Final Score: Florida 28 Florida State 24 Record: 10-2 (SEC 6-2) Game 13 Auburn--SEC Championship Atlanta December 2 I see the Gators winning the SEC East and going to Atlanta despite going 6-2 in the conference due to the fact they will have the tie breaker edge after beating Tennessee, South Carolina and Georgia. Facing Auburn, will Meyer and his staff will have their hands full trying to make the necessary adjustments. I believe they make some but not enough. I see Florida jumping out to an early lead but turning the ball over too many times in the 2nd & 3rd quarter as Auburn wears Florida down again. Odds of winning: 40% Final Score: Florida 17 Auburn 38 Record: 10-3 |
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