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Most of us have been ready for some football for quite some time now, but the professionals kick off tomorrow night with Pittsburgh and Miami, followed by a full slate on Sunday - including the new NBC Sunday Night Football package, which features outstanding matchups (some handpicked later in the season to ensure quality) - and this one starts with Peyton vs. Eli - and Monday Night Football moving to ESPN, with a double header to begin. With fantasy drafts complete and a season of questions in front of us, here are some answers...or at least educated guesses:
AFC EAST
1. New England
I'm aware that the Dolphins are the sexy pick here, but perhaps this is not the time to forget about the Pats, who're not receiving all the attention in the world this fall, and that may be a great thing. Tom Brady simply wins ballgames, and these guys didn't all forget how to do that just because they didn't get to the Super Bowl. Granted, he'll need some help offensively - Ben Watson may lead the team in receiving - but the defense is full of seasoned veterans who'll make it tough on everyone. I'll take the Pats in this division until I see otherwise.
2. Miami
Daunte Culpepper - though beloved by most fantasy owners - needs to show something in Miami right away, or all that hype and jubiliation over his signing will disappear quickly. Nick Saban appears to be the real deal, someone who's capable in college and the NFL. He'll need Ronnie Brown to carry the load of the running game, but the defense will be there. These guys were absolutely on fire to close out last year, and if they bring that with them in 2006, they'll contend for the playoffs and beyond...
3. NY Jets
Running game, anyone? Curtis Martin is out, and so it falls to Kevan Barlow and Cedric Houston - and though I love the ex-Vols in the NFL, Houston is not a legitimate threat. That's bad news for Chad Pennington, because they defense may be good up front (Shaun Ellis, Jonathan Vilma, Kimo von Oelhoffen (still wanted for murder on Carson Palmer) and the likes), but shaky in the secondary. Not talented enough to compete in this division.
4. Buffalo
Willis McGahee is good, yes, but he's not so good that you can build everything around him and then win a bunch of games. So it's another year of struggle for Buffalo, with neither JP Losman or Kelly Holcomb scaring anyone. Peerless Price does return, with Lee Evans now playing the role of #1 receiver in Buffalo. This might end up being the worst team in the AFC.
AFC NORTH
1. Pittsburgh
With or without Ben Roethlisberger to open the season, you don't pick against the defending champs. Cedrick Wilson will get more opportunities to shine in the absene of Randle-El, and the defense will again be feisty. This team proved last year that you can come in second in this division and be the best team in football, so competition will be fierce...but expect the Steelers to come out on top.
2. Cincinnati
Don't listen to all that Baltimore talk. With the Ravens you have unanswered questions - with these guys, you know exactly what you're getting. With The Edge now in 'Zona, this is the best offense in the NFL. Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson and TJ Whosyourmomma will light up the scoreboard. Now, as for stopping the other guys...well, they added Sam Adams, so maybe. And yeah, half the team is in jail. But you know what, they're the Bengals. They can't underachieve. So instead, they say "screw it" and push the Steelers for the division title.
3. Baltimore
It's not that I don't like the Ravens' chances...I just like the others' more. Steve McNair will once again struggle to stay healthy, which is a running theme for the Baltimore offense as Jamal Lewis - 60 yards per game in 2005 - is already nursing a bad hip coming into the season. Though I do think the McNair-to-Mason connection is lethal, and I know the Ravens will bring pain on defense, they're expecting a world of change from McNair's old body, and there's a reason the Titans didn't fight harder to keep him...close, but that doesn't cut it in the NFL.
4. Cleveland
Here's a team in need of some star power - who's marketable on this team? Reuben Droughns? Kellen Winslow? (they were gunnin' for his legs - he comes back at 'em! #$%!in' soldier!!) In a lesser division they'd have a shot to at least compete. Not here.
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis
Is there any shot that they don't win this division? Even with an average running game, Manning will get his yards. And I'm sure he'll have an answer for that all-out blitz business that the Chargers, Seahawks, and Steelers unloaded on the Colts last year. The defense will miss a few beats here and there, but will continue to play well. Unless there's a major meltdown, they're in the playoffs - but they'll also know that they'll never have a better shot at winning it all than they did last year, and whether they choose to make that a positive or a negative motivator will help determine their postseason success.
2. Jacksonville
Consistently overlooked, these guys are capable - won 11 games last year - and have a nasty defense. Jimmy Smith retired, so lo and behold, it's Matt Jones playing the role of #1 receiver. They're not talented enough to unseat the Colts, but they can sneak into the Wild Card.
3. Tennessee
You might as well pack Billy Volek's bags, and that seems like a shame. Kerry Collins may not sound like much, but he has been to an NFC Championship Game and a Super Bowl in his career. His primary role will be helping the Titans try to survive the opening six weeks of the season - after a home opener with the Jets that they need to win badly, the Titans get at San Diego, at Miami, the Cowboys, at Indy, and at Washington before an off week. Yikes. Coming out of that off week, probably anywhere between 0-6 and 3-3, you'll probably start to see more and more of Vince Young. You also hope that they'll discover a running back during that stretch, between Chris Brown, Travis Henry, and LenDale White. The feeling around Nashville is that this is the 'tween year, and the youth and talent is there on both sides of the ball to make some noise and think playoffs in 2007. But this is the NFL, so a hot start and some upsets, and who knows...or the Titans could in fact start 0-6 and nose dive. Much like the Vols, you'll have no idea what you're going to get until you see it on Sunday.
4. Houston
I like Mario Williams, and I think he'll be a good football player. May not be Reggie Bush, but he'll be helpful. David Carr can also be helpful, if he can stay alive. The Texans are another team that can scare some folks, but ultimately can't seem to get out of the basement in this division. Looks like another year of drafting high...
AFC WEST
1. Denver
Oakland is terrible, Kansas City can't pass, and San Diego is a complete wild card with Phillip Rivers under center. So Denver is the only choice here. And while Jay Cutler looked good in preseason, this is still The Snake's team. And no matter who the running back is, he'll get his yards. The Broncos are probably the 6th or 7th best team in the AFC, but they'll win this division.
2. San Diego
Cross your fingers and hope for the best...and if you're Rivers, you couldn't ask for better weapons to be surrounded with than LT and Antonio Gates. The defense is fast and this team can beat anyone...but if Rivers doesn't pan out, here come the boos, and then you don't know what's going to happen...
3. Kansas City
Along with finding out just how good Larry Johnson truly is in 2006, the main question revolves around Herman Edwards' ability to create a passing game. Trent Green isn't the problem, neither is Tony Gonzalez. But can you name a Chiefs wide receiver that isn't Dante Hall, who's known for returning kicks and that's all? The defense will be there, but - as LT may find out too - one dimensional and NFL success don't go together.
4. Oakland
Aaron Brooks cannot win in the NFL. I don't care if he was in New Orleans or not before, he's not going to get it done in Oakland either. And if Randy Moss was taking plays off before, what about when the season is in the toilet by week six? These guys are terrible.
NFC EAST
1. NY Giants
"The best division in football" (which is a total lie) will probably end up with 4 teams hovering around 8-8/9-7. I'm not going back to the Eagles, and Washington is full of questions with Portis hurt...and despite Parcells' presence, TO is cancer and it'll happen sooner or later. So that leaves the Giants, with Eli Manning continuing to mature and Tiki Barber continuing to carry the offense quietly. The defense is also quietly one of the best in the NFL.
2. Washington
That injury won't keep Portis out for long, and with Santana Moss in tow, if Mark Brunell stays healthy and leads, the Redskins can get into the playoffs again. This is also a team that could finish around 5-11.
3. Dallas
I don't understand what the big deal is. Yeah, they're the Cowboys. Yeah, he's Bill Parcells. But TO is risk/reward, and Drew Bledsoe is old, and Julius Jones isn't one of the 15 best running backs in the NFL. I love Jason Witten and all, but come on...show me something, then I'll pick you higher. Some guys have them winning the Super Bowl. Good grief.
4. Philadelphia
This team could benefit greatly by having no expectations and nowhere to go but up. McNabb is still great, and Donte' Stallworth is a great addition here. If they start putting together wins, look out - Andy Reid can get them back into the playoffs easily.
NFC NORTH
1. Chicago
Process of elimination leaves the Bearse, who still have great defense and adequate offense, and - much like with the AFC West Champion - probably are about the 6th or 7th best team in the NFC, but that'll be enough.
2. Green Bay
If this is Brett Favre's last year and he knows it, I'm not counting them out. I'm sure they'll probably finish like 2-14 or something, but this division is weak enough and the support in Wisconsin strong enough to allow for one more run. And that would be fun to watch.
3. Minnesota
It's a new day in Minny, and they're counting on Brad Johnson to continue the good fortune he had in late 2005. But the Vikings are mostly potential and thin on experience, and that means they could both win this division and finish in the basement.
4. Detroit
It's also a new day in Mowtown - gone are Joey Harrington and Charles Rogers, arriving on the scene is Jon Kitna (one of the most underrated QBs in the NFL) and LB Ernie Sims from FSU - that's right, the Lions had a chance to draft Leinart or Cutler and took defense for the first time in six years. That's a good start. But it won't amount to a good finish in one year.
NFC SOUTH
1. Carolina
The popular Super Bowl pick, and it's hard to argue. These guys were just there three years ago, in the NFC title game last year, and they've got great weapons and great defense. Getting home field advantage will be tough - really, winning this division will be tough. But watch out for these guys.
2. Tampa Bay
The defense that was once so ferocious is now pushing 35 - half of the defensive starters are at least 30 - but they've still got some firepower in them. I'll be the last person on earth to give Chris Simms credit, and he hasn't earned anyone's full trust yet...but if Cadillac keeps running well, it'll make things easier on him.
3. Atlanta
Michael Vick is not a great quarterback. Michael Vick is not a great quarterback. Michael Vick is not a great quarterback. What's more, you can't count on the defense to win games for you, and who's the big wide receiver threat again? Exactly. These guys are about to be old news.
4. New Orleans
Reggie Bush is fun to watch, no doubt about it. But he's also going to get murdered (so is Vince Young) if he keeps running side to side. And so maybe he'll grow as a player and turn into the total package. And Drew Brees and Deuce McAllister will be there to help carry the burden. The defense won't be...but I'll say this, if this team starts winning, they'll become America's Team so fast, that they could actually ride that momentum and sneak into the playoffs...
NFC WEST
1. Seattle
Why is everyone writing off the Seahawks because they lost the Super Bowl, and lost a fullback and an offensive lineman??? This isn't a one-and-done team by any means. There's also a great dropoff from top to bottom in this division than everywhere else, which means you can pencil them in, again, for home field advantage.
2. Arizona
Beware picking them. Yeah, the offense looks great, but you don't go anywhere without an offensive line. I'm fascinated to see what Edge does out there, and I've discovered that I still hate Kurt Warner with a passion, so that's good. The defense has potential and speed, but that won't be enough to make the playoffs.
3. St. Louis
After having Steven Jackson on my fantasy team in each of the last three seasons, let me be the first to say how overrated he is. They say they're going to run more this year, and so maybe that'll showcase his talentes more or something, but I wouldn't bet on it. And once again, here you have defensive questions - it seems there are a dozen NFL teams with good offensive potential and terrible D's, and only one (Chicago) with the opposite problem. And the Bears will make the playoffs, while all those other guys are on the clock.
4. San Francisco
It's not impossible that the two worst teams in the NFL play across the bay from each other, but I'm pretty sure that even the Raiders would beat these guys. Alex Smith is walking the David Carr path of "how long can he survive", Frank Gore is the team's starting running back, and their best offensive player is a rookie tight end. Remember when the 49ers were great every year?
PLAYOFFS
AFC
1. Pittsburgh
2. Indianapolis
3. New England
4. Denver
5. Cincinnati
6. Baltimore
NFC
1. Seattle
2. Carolina
3. NY Giants
4. Chicago
5. Washington
6. Tampa Bay
WILD CARD
Broncos over Bengals, Patriots over Ravens
Redskins over Bears, Giants over Bucs
DIVISIONAL
Steelers over Broncos, Colts over Patriots
Seahawks over Redskins, Panthers over Giants
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Colts over Steelers
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Seahawks over Panthers
SUPER BOWL XLI - Miami, FL
Colts over Seahawks
(The Colts finally finish strong when no one expects it, the Seahawks are the new Buffalo Bills)
Few things here....
Pre-season football is dangerous and should only be two games long. And Joe Gibbs knows better so I don't why Portis was still in the game. Espeacially with the load he is expected to carry this season. Dumb.
Leinart welcome to the NFL. I can't wait to see this Hollywood get smacked by a 300lb DT or 250lb flying LB.
Bush. Houston hello!!! Did you see his scamper for 40+ last week?
One week from today. Madden NFL 2007.
Tony Kornheiser, Joe Thiesmann, Mike Tirico. Mute never served a purpose more than now.
Jay Cutler looked really good. Really good for 11M gteed....
Giants own the toughest schedule this season by a landslide.
1st in opponets winning %
1st in games vs teams over .500 and
1st in games vs 2005 playoff teams
-- warrants mentioning
Parcells is making Marion Barber walk around with a football under his arm the entire camp. Bill don't like fumbles.
Waffle Crisps are amazing.
I think flight attendants should be paid alot more than what they get now.
Teachers too.
Denver Broncos Schedule
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