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Wondering who will make the NFL playoffs in January? Wonder no more. Here you go, seventeen weeks in advance:
AFC East
This is a division of have's and have-not's. The Jets and Bills are the have-not's. They will be awful this year. Mike Mularkey quit Buffalo for a reason, and it wasn't to spend more time with the family. The Jets somehow thought that Herm Edwards was the reason they weren't winning. Turns out they have no talent. Eric Mangini may become a good NFL coach, but this year he makes mistakes, and a coach cannot do that without talent.
That leaves the Patriots and Dolphins. I keep reading the comments of "experts" who promise that even without Adam Vinatieri, and even with Deion Branch's hold-out, and a linebacking corps that is less than stellar, the Pats will continue to reload and win bunches of games. I see that Tom Brady is still the QB, and Bill Belilchek is still the coach. But this year, the Patriots get demoted to wild-card status. The Dolphins ended last season on a roll - they were finally "getting" coach Saban. They brought in Daunte Culpepper during the offseason, and he's not gonna know what to do with a stud RB like Ronnie Brown. Plus, he's gonna love Chris Chambers more than he ever did Randy Moss. This adds up to mucho success in Miami.
AFC East Division winner: Miami Dolphins
AFC North
This is a tough division to predict. The Steelers are the obvious choice to win the division since they are defending Super Bowl champs. But wait - they didn't even win their division last year. That honor went to the Bengals, who are racking up police arrests faster than Samuel L. Jackson puts out new movies. Then there are the Ravens, who are excited out of their minds to finally have a dependable QB in Steve McNair. He's dependable as long as you need somehow to hold the clipboard on the sideline and show up in the hot tub on Monday morning. As for being dependable to actually get off the injury report and play in the games, well, that's another story.
So we have a division where the QB's have issues: Roethlisburger is coming off a motorcycle accident and subsequent concussion. Palmer is coming off an ACL injury, from which it usually takes a couple of years to recover. McNair is a surgeon's worse nightmare. And Charlie Frye is a second year QB, but has given us no evidence that he is the next coming of Roethlisburger or Brady.
My head says go with the Bengals to repeat, since they were playing so well with Palmer last year, and he looked great in the preseason. But my gut says the Steelers are primed to win the division back.
AFC North division winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South
This division is all Indianapolis. Once again, and this pains me to say it, we have a division of have's and have-not's. And the Titans are not in the latter group. The Colts will still dominate, the Jags will still be pretty good, as in above average, while the Titans and Texans still have some rebuilding left before they compete for this division again.
The good news for me is that the Titans are gaining in popularity because of Vince Young. Before this summer, the only time I would see anyone wearing Titans paraphenalia around Waco is when I would look in the mirror. Now I am starting to see #10 jerseys pop up here and there. Cool.
AFC South division winners: Indianapolis Colts
AFC West
We can eliminate the Raiders immediately. Art Shell hasn't coached in 14 years, and the Raiders added Aaron Brooks at QB. That smells like a disaster.
I have a bad feeling about the Chiefs. Dick Vermeil and OC Al Saunders are gone, Herm Edwards is in. I think Edwards is a good coach, but I don't see the offense playing at quite the same level, even with Larry Johnson in his prime. They still have a mediocre passing game, and Tony Gonzalez is now on the downside of his career. Also, I don't see the defense improving. So the Chiefs are probably looking at a .500 kind of season.
That leaves the Broncos and Chargers. I'm gonna go with the Broncos for one reason: Philip Rivers. Maybe Rivers will be just as good as DrewBrees, and lead them back to the playoffs. But I don't think so. I think the Chargers take their lumps with Rivers this year, and look to 2007 to get back into the playoffs.
I have my concerns about the Broncos too. They drafted Jay Cutler as their future QB when their window of opportunity with Jake Plummer is as wide open as it can get. I think Broncos fans should wonder why the team traded up for Cutler when they could have gotten an impact player on defense.
AFC West division winners: Denver Broncos
NFC East
This is a tough one. Any one of the four East teams could win this division. In theory, I really like the Redskins offense. They have Al Saunders at OC. They brought in Antwaan Randle-El, Brandon Lloyd, and T.J. Duckett to go along with Clinton Portis. But Portis is already injured, and Mark Brunell is approaching 90 years old. Why haven't they turned the keys to the offense over to former first round pick Jason Campbell? It worked for the Bengals. Maybe Joe Gibbs knows what he is doing, but I have my doubts. I think the Redskins fall back below .500 this year.
Everyone around here thinks that T.O. blows up the Cowboys this year. Actually, everyone is holding their breath around here - everyone else thinks T.O. blows up and the 'boys with him. I think that happens next year. This year, the Cowboys are playoff bound. In fact, with the improved defense, I think it happens this year. But keep a close eye on the Giants - they will make this division very close, and the winner will probably not be decided until week 17. Also, the Eagles should bounce back from last year's disaster. They just won't bounce back into first place.
NFC East division winner: Dallas Cowboys
NFC North
Can anyone explain to my why it is that when I eat cocktail peanuts, I get an urge for chocolate? This has nothing to do with the Bears winning an otherwise laughable division. I was just wondering.
NFC North division winner: Chicago Bears (now watch - the Vikings will somehow pull out this division and prove me wrong)
NFC South
I really do not like following the herd. But I am going to jump on the Carolina Panthers bandwagon. They should repeat as division winners - they have all of that talent on the offensive and defensive lines. Jake Delhomme has already been to 2 NFC championship games and won one of them. DeShaun Foster is a monster when he's healthy, and DeAngelo Williams (Memphis!) is as good a back-up as they could have drafted.
The Falcons will go as far as Michael Vick takes them. But will Vick ever ascend from athlete-quarterback to Quarterback-athlete? I do not know. If he does, they will be a force this year. The Falcons defense could be good enough to win the division in a Chicago Bears like fashion. If the Falcons defense reaches Panthers-Bears heights, then watch out for Atlanta.
The Saints? They are moving in the right direction, and Reggie Bush is going to be a #1 fantasy player in a couple of years, mark my words. And let's not forget the Bucs, who just won the Super Bowl several years ago. Tampa will again be about average. I have no faith in Chris Simms. Good thing Jon Gruden does.
NFC South division winners: Carolina Panthers
NFC West
I want to badly to predict the Arizona Cardinals are taking the next step. So here goes: the Arizona Cardinals take the next step. That's right, ladies and gentlemen. I'm predicting the Cardinals reach .500 this year!
The 49ers will be just as bad this year. That team needs more than 1 or 2 good drafts to get out of the cellar. They have Vernon Davis. Now if only they could build a winning team around a tight end...
The Rams made a smart move by hiring Scott Linehan, who somehow plucked former coach Jim Haslett to lead the defense. So you can say that I like the direction that the Rams are moving. Is it enough to win the division? Maybe. If the Seahawks fall prey to the Madden curse and the Super Bowl curse, then yes. If the Seahawks come back strong, then no. I think the Seahawks overcome the Super Bowl curse and repeat as division winners. But I only have as much faith as I do lack of faith in the rest of the division. In other words, they win the division, but do not get very far in the playoffs.
NFC West division winners: Seattle Seahawks
So here are my playoff picks:
AFC East: Miami Dolphins
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: Denver Broncos
Wild Cards: New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC Champion: Miami Dolphins (Yes, I realize no home team has ever reached the Super Bowl. And this year's game is in Miami. 40 years is long enough, the streak is broken.)
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
NFC North: Chicago Bears
NFC South: Carolina Panthers
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
Wild Cards: Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants
NFC Champion: Carolina Panthers
Super Bowl Champion: Carolina Panthers
Though I profess not to be a fantasy gamer, that doesn't mean I still don't keep track of the players and my friends weekly contests. That said, I came across a few tips for those of you crazed NFL addicts.
These sounded good and made sense especially over the long 17 week season!
1) Have faith in your line-up. Meaning keep an even keel as long as possible because you will endure many highs and lows over the next few weeks. Try to keep your eyes on the prize and stay focused for the long haul.
2) Use the waver wire wisely. Use it to your advantage when you need assistance in certain areas. Pay attention to players who show consistent production over the first three or four weeks. Then make your choice.
3) Beware the one week wonders! A good start doesn't make a Pro Bowl season. Kerry Collins could throw for 265 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 last year but that didn't equate to him posting similar every week. After the season, he was dumped. Don't let go of Daunte Culpepper to pick up Alex Smith because Smith had better stats in Week 1. Patience is a virtue. But, know your opponent and their weeknesses!
4) Avoid the 'rook' fever. Other than Reggie Bush, expecting that rookie to make a huge impact on your squad is a bit pie-in-the-sky. Though Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler may prove to pay off later in the season, especially in keeper leagues, go with proven vets in your lineup. Rookies tend to fluctuate; to many variables. Although, I do like Leinart's chances given Warner's injury propensity the last few years. He will throw up some huge numbers once Kurt takes a shower.
5) Use depth to your advantage. If you've got tons of talent at one position, then don't be afraid to package a starter along with a second-tier starter in a midseason trade to pick up a top running back and bolster your squad for the postseason push. Few teams make it to the Super Bowl without adding to their roster down the stretch.
Hopefully these few tips will help ease some of the pre-game stress rituals I know most of you anguish over every week.
Here's to a great season and the Steelers winning number 6!
And may all your waves never end and your wind be sustaining.
Denver Broncos Schedule
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