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This post contains some strong language, so be sure to hide the women and children.
Alabama - Birmingham Blazers (Watson Brown; 5-6, 3-5 CUSA East)Watson Brown is, for those not in the know, Texas head coach Mack Brown's older brother. This is his 12th season at UAB, and while things haven't been spectacular (his overall record at the school is just 59-65), there have been a handful of winning seasons and a bowl game in 2004. And like his baby brother, Brown has to replace a star quarterback. Darrell Hackney tallied 9,886 yards and 71 TDs in his career, and guided the Blazers to the top of the league in yards per play last year. There's a lot of returning depth and tons of senior leadership, but if the QB situation doesn't solidify (there are three guys competing for the position), things could get tough.Wyoming Cowboys (Joe Glenn; 4-7, 2-6 Mountain West)It's back to the drawing board for the Boys from Laramie. After a breakout 2004 season, in which Wyoming upset UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl, the team regressed back to a more typical level of production. Only six starters return this year, though, so it's probably going to be more of the same. The running game and the linebackers are solid, but pretty much everything else needs to be replaced, including the kicking game.Illinois Fighting Illini (Ron Zook; 2-9, 0-8 Big 10)20 starters return from the 2005 team, but these were the same guys who played on a team that was at the bottom of the league in pretty much every statistical category known to mankind. The 2001 conference-championship season was a long time ago, and there's nowhere to go but up. That having been said, the Illini only have one winnable conference game on the schedule, and even that's a bit of a stretch.Mississippi State Bulldogs (Sylvester Croom; 3-8, 1-7 SEC West)The first-ever black head coach in the SEC definitely could have picked a better school at which to break new racial ground. The Bulldogs aren't talented, but they are schizophrenic. In 2003, Croom's first season, they were embarrassed at home by D-IAA mid-packer Maine (by the even-more-embarrassing score of 9-7), then turned around and beat Florida a few weeks later. Finishing last season by coddling an equally crappy Ole Miss team in the Egg Bowl could be a sign of things to come, or it could just be a sign that major-conference football in the Magnolia State is a thing of the past. Given how brutal the West division is this year, it's probably the latter, at least for the forseeable future.Bowling Green Falcons (Gregg Brandon; 6-5, 5-3 MAC East)No more Josh Harris, no more Omar Jacobs. QB Anthony Turner got some playing time while Jacobs was injured last season, and the offensive line is one of the best in the conference. The receivers and backs are all going to be first-time starters, though. The defense has a few experienced players, but it must improve dramatically if the Falcons want to win the division.Vanderbilt Commodores (Bobby Johnson; 5-6, 3-5 SEC East)When my poor, hapless Commodores squeaked past Tennessee for the first time in 23 years, I wanted to throw things. Not out of celebration, but out of disappointment. After opening the season 4-0 for the first time since World War II, Vandy shit the bed at home against MTSU then was cheated out of an overtime win over Florida in Gainesville when a flag-happy referee called a criminally bogus celebration penalty on all-SEC WR Earl Bennett after an OT score. Cutler was setting up to go for a 2-point conversion and a gutsy win, but the 15-yard penalty forced a PAT kick instead. He then threw away the game with an interception in the second extra period. And as if that weren't enough, a pathetic Kentucky team came into Vanderbilt Stadium and ran their way to a 48-43 win, knocking the 'Dores out of bowl contention in the process. What could have been â€" should have been â€" an 8-3 season followed by a bowl game just wound up extending the 24-year losing-season streak that we all know and love. Going into Knoxville and ending the season with a win (on a last-minute scoring drive, no less) should have been an indescribably triumphant moment for long-suffering Vandy fans like me, but it just wound up leaving a bitter taste in our mouths. The worst news is that this was the best Vanderbilt team since that 1982 season, and its best player (QB Jay Cutler) is now playing for the Broncos.East Carolina Pirates (Skip Holtz; 5-6, 4-4 CUSA East)Skip Holtz, the son of legendary coach Lou Holtz, brought a three-game improvement with him when he came to Greenville. Pirates fans are hoping that the "like father, like son" rule holds true, since Daddy Holtz took each of the six teams he coached in his hall-of-fame career to a bowl game by his second season. The skill players on offense are all-league caliber, but ECU must rebuild the offensive line, and they must show some marked improvement defensively if they're going to break into the upper echelon of CUSA East.Indiana Hoosiers (Terry Hoeppner; 4-7, 1-7 Big 10)At one point early last season, Baylor, Indiana, Vanderbilt and Kansas were all 3-0 at the same time. In the 140-year history of organized college football, that had never happened before. It collapsed almost immediately, of course, but it still happened. While the Hoos were the worst in the league in total offense, they did feature the conference's leading receiver, a 6'7", 216 lb. beast by the name of James Hardy. His relatively low (but still good for 25th in the nation) 89.3 yards per game average is a testament to just how run-oriented the Big 10 is. The defense, on the other hand, is empty and wasn't that good to begin with. The secondary is OK, but the front seven are going to be dangerously inexperienced. Hoeppner has generated tons of excitement off the field, though, and home-game attendance has jumped 39%, including a 110% increase among IU students.Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Jack Bicknell; 7-4, 6-2 WAC)Here's another team I always forget about. Tech must replace the strongest parts of its team, both offensively and defensively. The QB and a three-time all-WAC guard have graduated, and the defense loses nine starters from a team that was fifth in the nation in turnover margin and third in the WAC in total defense. A tough 13-game schedule (the extra game granted because they play at Hawaii) won't help matters.Kentucky Wildcats (Rich Brooks; 3-8, 2-6 SEC East)As I once said to a Kentucky-fan acquaintance who now admires my directness, "Fuck Kentucky. I hate Kentucky." That was in a basketball context, but it applies equally well to football, especially after this past season (see above). The Wildcats have suffered 31 offseason injuries that required surgery, and half the projected starters didn't even participate in spring drills. That could lead either to greater competitiveness or a complete collapse. Naturally, I'm hoping for the latter.
I struggled with how to write this, and I ended up with an approach of looking at:What should be better this year
What will likely be worse
What will be more or less the same
Hoping for the bestWhat’s better this year:
â€" Run Defense: Georgia had its worst run defense of the Mark Richt era in 2005. After allowing an average of 108 yards per game on the ground the prior four years, UGA gave up 143 yards/game in 2005.
The drop-off was caused by endless injuries to Kedric Golston, Gerald Anderson and Ray Gant that left UGA thin and feeble at DT. Additionally, injuries to Tony Taylor and Brandon Miller took away the signature speed and tackling of the Georgia linebacker corps.
Jeff Owens. Image georgiadogs
With the last year's emergence of Jeff Owens, the progress of man-child Kade Weston and the new found health of Dale Dixson, UGA has more options along the interior DL to compliment a still gimpy Ray Gant. Ricardo Crawford and Geno Atkins combine to give UGA more depth than years past. Best of all, the linebacking unit is healthier this year, and there is more speed available. Assuming the Dawgs can maintain some modest level of health, the run defense should be dramatically improved.
What’s the same / break even:
â€" Run Offense: Georgia was #3 in the SEC in rushing yards in 2005; however, we seemed to drift away from the running game at critical times. Thomas Brown continues to improve, and necessity will force the Dawgs to run the ball more this year. The center position should experience a big upgrade with Nick Jones vs. the two-headed blow backward tandem of Ryan and Russ. The tackles are about break even vs. last year, but the loss of Max Jean-Gilles at Guard is huge for the running game. Overall, I’d consider the running game to be a wash vs. last year in terms of talent. The personnel is there to run the ball better, but if we can’t pass the ball the stats might not look as impressive. Break even.
Thomas Brown needs the rock! (image: Jim Hipple)
What’s Worse:
â€" Passing Offense: UGA finished #2 in the SEC in passing in 2005. DJ Shockley was the 2nd best QB in the SEC last year behind Jay Cutler. Joe Tereshinski might be the SEC’s 6th or 7th best QB this year, and all pipe dreams to the contrary Matt Stafford isn’t going to beat him out from 3rd on the depth chart. The scenario that results in a Stafford start has UGA doing so badly under JT3 that we’re in the Peach Bowl anyway. The WR/TE corp loses 3 of the top 4 returning pass catchers in Bailey, McClendon and Pope. On the bright side, Mo Mass should be better. Huge downgrade from last year.
Who's kidding who. These guys don't grow on trees.
â€" Pass Defense: Demario Minter, Tim Jennings and Greg Blue will be drawing an NFL payday this year. While a more mature Paul Oliver may end up being a break even or upgrade over Minter, replacing Jennings will be tough. Greg Blue was often lost against the play action pass so having Kelin Johnson/CJ Byrd back there with the ball in the air won’t be as much of a downgrade as some think. The pressure from Charles Johnson and Quentin Moses will make our DBs look better than they are early in the season. This area is a minor downgrade, but not by as much as the media is making out.
We'll miss Blue, but more against the run than pass.
Hoping for the Best:
â€" Special Teams: Brandon Coutu, Gordon Ely-Kelso and Thomas Flowers return for Georgia a little older and a little wiser. The marked improvement will HOPEFULLY come in the area of kickoff returns. UGA has been pathetic in this area since Fred Gibson was taken off the kickoff return team in 2002. Tony Ball is bringing a new single man return system to Georgia from Virginia Tech. Hopefully a little Beamer Ball will rub off on this unit and take it to the next level. At worst, it’s slightly above break even, but the potential is there for soooooo much more. (Oh yeah, and let's not fall for any more fake punts)
Goooood times. Image: Jim Hipple
â€" Defensive Play Calling: Brian Van Gorder improved by leaps and bounds as a play caller and schemer from 2001 to 2002. The poorly designed blitzes and struggles against balanced offense were replaced by a punishing elite unit after the 2001 season. Hopefully, Martinez learned similar lessons after his debut 2005 season. The game plan vs. WVU was an all-time nut job. Putting 6 men in the box against a run dominate offenses was puzzling. The near total lack of blitzing vs. UF was also bizarre given the success that Bama, UT and LSU had with the blitz against Leak (SC also used it well, but that game was after ours). It was like we didn’t watch film before those two losses. If we get more aggressive and scheme smarter this year, our entire defensive unit could leap forward.
Riddle: Who has two thumbs and didn't blitz Chris Leak?
The Schedule:
â€" The Good News: With the exception of the South Carolina game, the schedule starts fairly slow and builds over a period of time. This gives our youth/inexperience at positions like DB, QB and WR a chance to develop. If we can get past the South Carolina game with a win, we should be 5-0 going up against a UT team with more flaws and questions than we have. Mark Schlabach said that the SEC East will be decided at the Cocktail Party. That’s probably true.
My prediction is 9-3. If we stay healthy along the OL, get smart play from the QB and avoid the dropped passes of the past, we could win the East or better. If we lose Nick Jones, Dan Inman, Moses, Charles Johnson or Paul Oliver, we’re looking at less than 9 wins.
Unless we win the SEC, I think we’re in the Peach Bowl this year. More on that later.
pwd
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