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all right kids, let's just hit the ground running, kickoff is less than an hour away, so no time to waste. scoring rules can be found here, and lines come from caesar's sportsbook. home team in caps.
mia (+1) over PIT (o/u - 34.5)
this line started at miami +5.5, but since roethlisberger hurt his appendix, it has plummeted. to be honest, i'm amazed that the steelers are still favored. this is going to be a pretty defensive affair especially with america's favorite qb charlie batch lining up for your defending super bowl champs. hmmm...good luck with all that. although the steelers were 2-0 with him starting last year. miami on the other hand is everyone, and i mean everyone's trendy pick to kick ass this year. count me as one of those people. in other news, i read that the steelers were going to play all kickoffs without helmets as a tribute to their fallen comrade. not that it will matter, gimme miami.
den (-4) over STL (o/u - 46)
seriously, over the years, i estimate that i've won well over 1000 bucks betting against jake plummer. it seems that this year, he's got a lot of things going for him with a proven receiver in javon walker and the always steady running game. mike martz really left things a mess in st. louis. some people seem to think that the rams are going to surprise people this season, but i just don't see it. believe it or not, i hate marc bulger worst than jake plummer this year. i'll take denver.
TEN(-3) over nyj (o/u - 36)
how much does it suck to have a game in week 1 where both teams' season is already over? the jets are horrible and the titans are at home, seems pretty easy to me. smart money is on tennessee, i'm since i'm smart, i'll take the titans.
buf (-9.5) over NE (o/u - 41)
wow, that's a big number, up from 7 earlier in the week. this is stupid, but i'm going to be a contrarian since i have willis mcgahee on my fantasy team, and say that the bills lose but keep it within a touchdown. hello rochester! gimme the bills.
bal (+3) over TAM (o/u -34)
admittedly, this isn't a smart pick, but chris simms may become my new jake plummer. do i think mcnair has anything left for the ravens, no, but when i think of the matchup of ray lewis and ed reed vs. chris simms, my heart goes out to chris' father phil. upset special, as i want the ravens.
cin (-2.5) over KC (o/u -46)
as fredo and i discussed earlier today...you should and i will include the over in your parlay. that's good money as kc's defense isn't going to stop anyone just yet, let alone the bengals. don't get me wrong, i think that carson palmer is still going to have problems with the knee, but he'll be fine for week 1 as the johnson brothers are going to go buckwild. although, this spread is down a point and a half from where it started. the pick is cinncinnatti.
sea (-6) over DET (o/u -45)
the more i think about the seahawks, the less i like their chances of returning to the super bowl. however, the more i think about detroit, the less i like their chances of winning a game this season. i feel bad for my roommate who is lions superfan #1. i tried to justify taking the lions, i really did, but i can't in good conscience pick the lions. seattle.
CAR (-4.5) over atl (o/u -39.5)
ughhhhh. stay away. this pick seems too easy. i'll take the carolina pantha'.
phi (-5) over HOU (o/u - 37)
i think fredo nailed it when he said the eagles are going to start hot and then fade hard after week 10. i think that mcnabb is going to have a really big game this week, so fantasy people with eagles, start 'em with confidence as the eagles are going to roll. eagles all the way.
CLE (-3) over no (o/u -36)
if i were a patriotic american i would say that the saints are a cinch to win their first game this season. however, i am not a patriotic american and more importantly, the saints defense has a lot of problems, which probably means that they hate america as well. the browns on the other hand are as american as apple pie and love the freedom which is brought to us via dead iraqi civilians. as seeing as how they're dying by the dozen over there, gimme the browns.
dal (+2) over JAX (o/u -36.5)
i have plenty of reasons not to take the cowboys here. dallas has a lousy record on opening day in the past 5 years. the jags play stout defense against the run, which i think parcells is going to do alot of. however, i just heard that marcus stroud sprained his ankle in practice and is questionable for sunday. he is the one that makes that defense go. besides, did you really think i'd pick against the cowboys during their super bowl run? the cowboys start with a win over the jags and win over the number.
chi (-3.5) over GB (o/u -34.5)
defense wins championships and in the case of this game, it also bends brett favre over and inserts the football into his anus. the funny thing is that i bet that in some alternate universe, this game is hailed as the passing of the torch from rex grossman to brett favre. however, in this universe, grossman sucks and favre gets concussed in the first quarter. bears, big time.
ARI (-7.5) over sfo (o/u - 42.5)
new stadium, new running back, worst team in the national football league. sounds like a blowout to me. gimme the cards and gimme three TDs for kurt warner. and gimme the under as i think that the niners get shut out.
ind (-3) over NYG (o/u -48.5)
fredo and i are thinking about calling our team for our football pool "peyton loves eli". that has nothing to do with anything but worth mentioning. if the colts don't blow out the giants, then i'll eat a live frog. gimme fiddy on the colts.
WAS (-4) over minn (o/u - 35)
ummm...no one knows what the deal is with portis is yet, but it shouldn't matter as i think the defense will end up winning this one for the skins. i hate taking the skins by the way, but the skins are the pick.
OAK (+3) over sd (o/u - 43.5)
as mentioned before, the chargers are the cause of the great rift between fred and i. always slow starters, i think the chargers are going to be unprepared for the brooks/moss connection. call me crazy, but aaron brooks looked good in preseason. that and i've only taken three underdogs so far, so let's get this rumble started. i'll take the raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaiders.
ok, fred isn't going to be able to get his picks until later, but he told me he's taking miami tonight. i've got to get out to watch the game now, so i'll get my parlays in a comment later on. but i think we can all agree that our parlays this week cannot have the miami game on it. ok kids, let's rock and roll.
this year seems a little more difficult to pick Super Bowl teams, but lets go ahead and give it a shot. here are mine...
AFC Champ - Denver Broncos
NFC Champ - Dallas Cowboys
both of these teams were on the edge of being something special last year and both strengthened their defense, as well as added a key WR. Jake Plummer a Super Bowl quarterback?? yes, i think he will get the Broncos there by keeping his mistakes to a minimum. he may throw for a bunch of interceptions during the regular season, but come playoff time the running back by committee is going to pay off. the broncos will go 12 - 4 (if not better) largely due to the combination of their defensive strength and their relatively easy schedule.
the Cowboys will get there only because i am from Dallas, so it makes it easy for me to cheer for them. plus, they have the cockiest player in the league on their team, Mr. Mike Vanderjagt. this guy is pretty funny, and not a bad kicker either. i think the Cowboys will go 12 - 4 as well, several of these being close games that Vanderjagt will win in the final 2 minutes or even overtime. this defense is underrated and opposing running backs will not be looking forward to playing against the fellas from Big D. as long as Dallas doesn't have to play Carolina in the playoffs i think they will be fine.
and of course i have to pick the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl, by a score of 35-17.
Denver Broncos Schedule
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