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Like many of you, I drafted my Fantasy Football team over the weekend. I'm in a money league where there is a Silver Cup for the champion, passed around a la the Stanley Cup with a new inscription added every year for the new winner. Justin is also in the league, and as you saw with the previous post, he will need to win in order to afford his wonderful new home business. Yeah. Well, luck went his way - he got the first pick, and I got the sixth.
I reviewed the draft board cheatsheets and noticed that the top was loaded high with running backs in most cases, but that if you don't get Larry Johnson or LaDainian Tomlinson, you're pretty much on an even keel for the next 30 possible RBs. The reason for this is straightforward - if you have a team's "main guy," he's likely to grind out yardage every week. Running backs are notoriously fragile, as well, as my previous year's entire team seemed to be. I was stuck with Culpepper, Jevon Walker, and Priest Holmes, out of the last pick. Not so good. This told me that struggling with high picks on RBs was not likely to pay off in points over the entire season.
Quarterbacks posited a similar dilemma - there was Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, and then everyone else. One could make a case for Eli but that kid's still on the bubble and the Giants like to turn themselves into groundpounders too often for my tastes. It's essential to get a good QB, because you need that 20-30 solid points every week if you plan to win games. They don't go high because you only need one, unless you get one of the top few, which disappear right away.
Wide Receivers are, if anything, even greater a gamble than RBs. Ask anyone who spent a high pick on Terrell Owens last year how they feel about that pick now. There are about seven or eight top guys, though, topping off the list with Steve Smith and Larry Fitzgerald, who are essentially a push. One hopes to get their top WR in the second round. If you have to spend your round one pick on him, you're already struggling to score consistent points each week. My draft strategy was to get as many primaries as I could, even on running teams, because there's always a go-to guy who gets the bulk of the passes.
Tight Ends do not represent a high-scoring position, unless you pick Antonio Gates, whose stock will drop when everyone watches Philip Rivers struggle under center for the Bolts. There are about three more good TEs, as I see it: Alge Crumpler, Todd Heap, and Jason Witten. If you get one of these gentlemen, it's like having an extra half of a WR. If not, well, every few weeks you might get some surprise points.
Kickers and a defense are the big wildcards. One does not want to spend a high pick on any of them, but there's no denying the scoring bonus one gets by landing an actual quality pick in either category. I think too many drafters overlook guys like Neil Rackers and pass up what is essentially a third running back in points. My strategy going in was to pick up the best kicker and defense on the board while the other guys were still struggling to get their third RB and WR each; their "insurance guys." In my mind, that insurance is less necessary if you have the wins from consistent points from your starters. You can gamble on running backs that may or may not pan out, or reliable backups who play behind big-hype new picks, such as Deuce McAllister behind Reggie Bush.
Well, with this strategy and the board as it went, the top five picks were really head and shoulders better than the rest of the field. I needed to land just one of those guys to be able to contend for the title. Justin got the first pick, and I got... the sixth. Well, I supposed I might take Clinton Portis as my first pick... he should still be around...
The first pick was Peyton Manning. I know Johnson or Tomlinson are the favorites here -- in fact, another group drafting at nearby tables saw Johnson go first -- but I contend that Justin made the correct pick. Either of those guys is just too vulnerable, whether to injury, an "off-year," offensive scheming toward the pass, or teams which might have to play catch-up and can't run their ground game. Peyton Manning, no matter when you have him or where, is a dependable source of points all season long. Unless he gets injured, of course.
Picks 2 and 3 were Johnson and Tomlinson. Pick 4 took Shaun Alexander, as might be expected. I prepared to take Portis, knowing the fifth pick would certainly take Tom Brady. We all stood in mute witness as the fifth pick demonstrated a complete ignorance of football (as he would throughout the day, it turned out) by picking Ben Roethlisberger! Mise! I couldn't shout "Gimme fahckin' Brady!" fast enough! Portis went seventh to a very happy Kyle, who thought he would be shut out of even that talent.
Coming back on the wheel, the only other snapper who had been picked was Hasselbeck, and a bunch of running backs. I double-checked my lists and picked, almost in questioning disbelief, "Um, Larry Fitzgerald?" The guy sitting to my left slapped his hand to his forehead in the realization that he had just passed on Larry in favor of Carnell Williams. Yeah, good pick.
It went like that all day. For my first five picks, I got solid starters, and realized that nobody was picking wideouts as they all struggled to fill their QB, RB, and TE holes -- with picks 6 and 7, my draft strategy paid off as I took the best kicker and probably the second-best defense. Muhammad was still there for pick 8, since apparently nobody noticed that he's "the guy" in Chicago, running team though they may be. Every team passes, folks. Every team runs. Every team scores some touchdowns. I'd rather have the main RB on a bad team than the second or third WR on a good team -- a strataegem with which Justin agreed in about round seven, picking Frank Gore over Eddie Kennison, and which I had just parroted back in the fourth, taking Brian Westbrook over T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
I'm very pleased with my starters, such as they are, and my backups are solid enough, including a few potential sleepers. I think I took Plummer in nine just because he was still there... the entire draft was still leaving the quarterbacks unplundered, and I was like, "wow, I guess I hate-draft the Pestilence on the wheel." I did it again in ten, hate-drafting the Baltimore defense when nobody else was awake at the wheel. Um, the Ravens? I heard their D was, you know, somewhat good? It's projected to score almost as much as my Steelers D. Might be able to parlay that into a nice runner or receiver after the bye-week switcheroo.
Here was my final team:
QB - Tom Brady
WR - Larry Fitzgerald
WR - Muhsin Muhammad
RB - Julius Jones
RB - Brian Westbrook
TE - Todd Heap
K - Adam Vinatieri
D - Pittsburgh
BN/QB - Jake Plummer
BN/WR - Lavernaues Coles (I know, but it was a 14th round pick.)
BN/WR - Drew Bennett (who will either shine or do nothing)
BN/RB - Ahman Green (you never know)
BN/RB - Dominic Rhodes (if that rookie Addai pooches out)
BN/TE - Jerramy Stevens (last pick)
BN/DEF - Baltimore
Well, in a few weeks, we'll know if I'm a champ or a chump. Gotta get ready for the suicide pool too, since that was fairly lucrative last year. What with winning it and all.
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