Invesco Field Seating

When the Buffies have the Ball

CU gained 216 yards on 54 plays against Montana State on Saturday, 4 yards/play. That is staggering, a bad day against any defense this was against a team with I-AA players in a league, the Big Sky, not exactly known for its defense. The Buffies rushed for 97 yards on only 21 carries from their running backs, which begs the question...How the hell do you only run the ball 21 times against a I-AA school? Especially when your passing game is as repugnant as the Buffaloes were on Saturday (8-22-110 5.00 yds/att). Finally, you have to wonder how James Cox was allowed to play the entire game, I mean at some point when you're misfiring that often you have to switch quarterbacks even if it's only on accident, right? All in all it was as poor a performance as anyone in the Big XII conference has had in the 10+ years of existence.

CSU's defense was all over the Weber State offense last weekend, I'd point out that they're I-AA but that just doesn't matter in this preview. CSU held them to 86 yards on 48 plays, including a mind numbing 14 yards on 15 running back carries. The Rams also produced 52 yards of negative plays, sacks, etc...In the 30-6 rout CSU simply dominated the Weber State offense.

Regardless of last week's escapade, CU will provide a much larger test for the Rams. I would imagine that CU has at least toyed with the idea of sticking with their running game and also maybe taking a look at one of their other quarterbacks at some point if things aren't going well. So I expect them to be more productive against a better team this weekend.


When CSU has the ball

Losing star RB Kyle Bell so close to the season is a rough thing for CSU to deal with. He was as big a part of their offense as anything else. The Rams ran for 127 yards from their RBs on Saturday, but averaged less then 4.00 yds/carry against a I-AA opponent. And they will be taking a huge step up with the run defense of the Buffies. Caleb Hanie is the starting qb for the Rams and he was very efficient last weekend (15-22-212, 9.64 yds/att, otd/1int) and I do expect CSU to test CU's pass defense in early down situations. The Rams will not be able to consistently drive the football against CU. I do believe they'll hit a few big pass plays, however. Look for Kory Sperry & Damon Morton to put up 10-15 catches between them.

While CU's offense was insanely awful last weekend, their defense was actually pretty good. Montana State put up 288 yds on 70 plays and 238 yards on 38 passes (6.8 yds/att). However CU did not force any turnovers, and their struggling offense sure could have used one or two of those to get going. I think going into a game like this, the defensive unit can be the unit that keys Colorado to a ressurgance. No matter what else is happening, CU's defense has better athletes then CSU's offense, so I expect the overall pace and tempo of this part of the game to be dictated by CU.

While I do expect CSU to get some things done with big plays, I expect Colorado's defense to force some turnovers and keep themselves in the game even if their offense struggles.


Analysis/Prediction:

Interesting fact, Colorado is 12-0 when scoring 27 or more points against CSU since 1986, they are 0-4 when they've been held to 24 or fewer. Translation, when CSU's defense can stop Colorado's offense, they've won the game. When they haven't, they've had no shot. In that vein, I think Colorado's offensive struggles are likely to continue in this one and I think Colorado State will be there all day long and this will be a frustrating day for both teams.

However, I do not believe this CSU team has the playmaker at RB or QB to win this thing. And I also believe that Colorado's players understand that if they lose on Saturday, they will be 0-5 when Baylor comes to town because they're not going to lose to Montana State and CSU & suddenly find the confidence to beat Arizona State, Missouri or Georgia. So I am picking Colorado to win this one.

Buffies 21 Rams 17