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The coaches' preseason poll was released by USA Today Friday, and I'm pleased to report that Ohio State is sitting in the No. 1 position.
(Actually, "pleased" is a bit of an understatement: When I saw the Friday paper in the box outside Eat 'N' Park Friday evening, I almost knocked over a group of senior citizens while I was dancing on the sidewalk.)
Unfortunately, the notoriety of being No. 1 also brings a new flood of stories about the "scandal-ridden" athletic program at Ohio State. Among the things you're likely to hear in the next few weeks:
Jim Tressel is actually a vice president for Halliburton.
The football team's kickers use puppies and kittens during practice instead of footballs.
Boosters who give players high-pay, no-work jobs are rewarded with football tickets and crack.
The real reason Ohio State went 14-0 and won the national title during the 2002 season was the ritual blood-letting sacrifice of several freshman cheerleaders at the Woody Hayes Athletics Center during two-a-days.
Maurice Clarett has been named a Rhodes Scholar.
Wait. That last one doesn't make any sense.
***
There is already a lot of hysteria about everthing Ohio State's been through in the last several years, and I've already noticed several outlets that, while breathlessly ticking off the allegations against the athletic department apparently forgot to mention the outcome. For example Stephen A. Smith, on ESPN's "Sports Reporters" this morning, had a lot to say about the scandals, but offered little information about the results of several investigations, by police, by the university and by the NCAA.
Whoops.
So here's a rundown on what's actually happened:
1) After the 2002 season, Maurice Clarett reported to police that a car he was driving was broken into and a bunch of stuff was stolen. An investigation into that incident began.
2) A short time later, Clarett -- and several other former players, all of whom had been dismissed from the program or flunked out of school -- told ESPN The Magazine they had been given impermissible academic help while at OSU. This prompted two investigations, one by the university's faculty and one by the NCAA.
3) The university self-reported that Troy Smith had accepted $500 from a booster. He was suspended for two games, and the booster was banned for life from all OSU athletics functions.
4) The university self-reported the admission of Jim O'Brien, the former men's basketball coach that he had given a buttload of money to a recruit. O'Brien's rationale was that the guy wasn't actually eligible to play in the NCAA and needed a loan to help him with a bad family situation. (Not only was this self-reported, but former athletic director Andy Geiger was in such a hurry to fire O'Brien that he ended up making a legal breach of O'Brien's contract, which resulted in the $2.2 million in damages awarded to the coach last week.) As a self-imposed penalty, OSU cut scholarships for the basketball program and held a successful team out of post-season play for a year. An NCAA investigation, obviously, resulted from this report as well.
Whew. That's a bunch of bad stuff. Let's look at what happened, point by point:
1) Clarett was not only found to be lying about the value of the stuff that was in the car, but the university found that he had taken benefits from a friend back home in Youngstown. He was suspended from the football team for a year, and eventually dropped out of school. He tested the NFL's eligibility rules and lost; when he finally was eligible for the draft he was fat and slow at both the scouting combine and his own private workout. He was drafted by the Broncos, but cut before the season began. He's now awaiting trial on an armed robbery charge.
2) Investigations by the faculty, and more importantly, the NCAA, found no evidence of academic favors for athletes. As far as Maurice, see No. 1 above.
3) The NCAA ruled that a major violation occurred. No further penalties were assessed.
4) According to the NCAA's final report on this -- and all the other allegations -- several major violations had in fact occurred. Besides the self-imposed penalties, the NCAA placed the athletics program on probation for three years and ordered that the men's basketball program give back income from several post-season appearances during the O'Brien era and vacate records from the same time period. And besides the thing with Troy Smith -- an incident that the report calls "an isolated event" -- there were no findings against the football team. Interestingly, the same NCAA ruling essentially banned O'Brien from coaching at an NCAA institution through 2011 and banned former assistant Paul Biancardi from recruiting through 2007. Biancardi subsequently resigned his head coaching position at Wright State.
So, yeah, bad stuff did happen, although most of it involved the conduct of the men's basketball program. I don't think it's unfair to recount all this stuff now that the football team has been given the distinction of being No. 1 in the preseason coaches' poll, but I think it's equally important to state the results of the following investigations. The USA Today story did a decent job of that; Stephen A., however, didn't do such a hot job on ESPN this morning.
I don't expect that this kind of stuff will go away anytime soon, so it's something that Ohio State fans are just going to have to deal with all season. And as our Buckeyes roll through the season kicking everyone's asses, we'll have to cope with jeers about cheating from opposing fans.
Fine. No problem. As long as we know the whole story.
OK, a few brief notes:
-- The Mariners just absolutely suck donkey balls against the A's.
-- The semi-joke in this title (which Gavin wasn't smart enough to figure out) is a play off the old saying.... when pigs fly. Well, this group has a small possibility of making it to the postseason, so instead of going with the super-difficult feat of pigs (plural) flying, the joke refers to only ONE pig (singluar) having to sprout wings and fly. Thus, a joke. It's ok, Gavin, I realize they don't teach joke-understanding in Electrical Theory.
-- Yes, I was basically drunk off heat-exhaustion towards the end of the Buffalo Bills piece. Basically, I live in Phoenix, and my car is parked 15 minutes from where I work (thank you ASU, for your awesome transportation services!). However, is there anything actually interesting there to write about Buffalo? Marv Levy is 150 years old, Dick Jauron is close behind, and they'll going to be terrible. Nothing more to write about that.
Whew. WIth that unpleasantness behind us, I move forward to a much more interesting team, one that started off 6-2 before Michael Vick-ing their way to an 8-8 record. All that Super Bowl talk before last season? Not hearing much of a peep before this season.
The main reason that this team remains outside of the postseason? One Michael Vick, aka Ron Mexico (for those of you who don't know that side story, just know that it's awesome and involves him needing an alias for an embarrassing reason). Before I dive into that, let me pose the question.... what was the difference between 6-2 and 2-6 for the Atlanta Falcons? Was their skid a product of injuries (Ed Hartwell, for one), or a harbinger of ills to come?
Avg throwing yards (6-2): 156 yds (one game Matt Schaub) Avg throwing yards (2-6): 183 yds
Hmmmm. Nothing much to see there. If anything, there is improvement in the passing attack.
Avg rushing yards (6-2): 185 yds Avg rushing yards (2-6): 135 yds
Wowsers. There's the beginning of a reason. The Atlanta Falcons are all about running the football, and sported the league's best running attack in 2004. It seemed to take another half of a season, but teams began to wake up to the fact that, in order to stop the Falcons offense, you needed to stop Dunn and the rushing attack. Make Vick beat you with his arm. Could Vick do that? Apparently not, and I'll get more into that later.
One more fun stat, this just doing with general wins and losses for the 2005 Atlanta Falcons (this is for the legions of fans who all feel that they are right back in the Super Bowl hunt this year.
W/L record of teams Falcons beat in 2005: 44-84 (New Orleans Saints twice!) W/L record of teams Falcons lost to in 2005: 82-46
Yeah! You the man! Way to beat Detroit, Minnesota, Buffalo, and the Jets!
Enough of that. Let's move on to an actual preview of this season, and why both Gavin and I feel that this team has a long way to go before they prove themselves a contender.
Atlanta Falcons 2005 Record: 8-8 Huge Mega-Losses: Brian Finneran (injury) Huge Mega-Upgrades: John Abraham, Lawyer Milloy, Jimmy Williams, Wayne Gandy
Quarterback: THE Michael Vick Experience
I admit, I enjoyed Michael Vick a lot more two-three years ago then I do now. When you watch him, you are still guaranteed to witness at least one amazing play, whether it is him shedding a would-be sacker or gallivanting his way through numerous defenders down the field, as he did to Seattle last season. He is a truly special athlete.
Emphasis on athlete.
As a quarterback, where, last time I checked, is the postion he plays, Vick has been, frankly, terrible. Here is the group that Vick finds himself in the DPAR (defense-adjusted points above replacement) rankings.....
22. Aaron Brooks (Gavin's favorite): 23.2 23. David Garrard (the fat wonder): 19.9 24. Trent Dilfer (I love him, but he sucks): 14.9 25. Josh McCown (the savior of Detroit): 13.1
26. Michael Vick (SUPERSTAR): 12.9, right above Kyle Boller and Joey Harrington.
As for DOVA (defense-adjusted value over average, meaning how much better Vick does in a game situation then would an average NFL quarterback)....
26. Michael Vick: -5.9%
Vick, as a quarterback, was barely superior to a replacement player, and worse than an average NFL quarterback. This should come as no surprise to those suckers who keep drafting him onto their fantasy squads, or to the poor saps who consider Michael Vick a top-tier NFL quarterback. He's not. The West Coast scheme has completely backfired, as Vick shows no accuracy and, frankly, not the intelligence necessary to pick up the system. Now, it usually does take three years to learn, so, if Vick magically turns everything around, I'll fall on my knees and pray for forgiveness for doubting such a special player. However, it just burns me that so much hype is wasted on this guy when he doesn't do his job that well. Um, Matt Schaub is a better quarterback. I believe that the Atlanta Falcons know this, which is why Matt Schaub is still an Atlanta Falcon.
Running Back: Warrick Dunn T.J. Duckett
Three reasons to explain the drop in the running game for the second half of the season. -- Warrick Dunn was wearing down -- The rushing game couldn't remain top tier during a horrible season by Duckett -- Teams began to completely focus on the run
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. I'm a huge Warrick Dunn fan, but he is a small one, and the pounding has to take a toll. Duckett managed to become a completely terrible player by the second half of last season, and the Falcons have to be hoping for a resurgence. Finally, teams are not stupid. They can see that Vick is struggling throwing the football and connect the dots. The point still remains: For now, if you stop the Falcons rushing attack, you stop the Falcons. This is the difference between the Falcons and other great rushing teams. The Steelers. The Broncos. The Seahawks. If you concentrate on only shutting down one area of the offense, those teams will rip you up through the air.
Wide Receivers: Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, Jerome Pathon, Alge Crumpler
Ouch. Don't get me wrong, there is some talent there. Crumpler, in particular, seems to be the one person Vick has no problem throwing the football too. White and Jenkings, however, are both young, with no history of being a go-to individual. Gone are Peerless Price and Brian Finneran, the top two Atlanta receivers a year ago (yes, I know Price wasn't super-awesome, but, talent-wise, he was still one of the top-two); Finneran being the biggest blow because he was white. Oh, and he was Vick's favorite non-tight-end target.
The question is..... can this group turn the Falcons aerial attack into a force? Answer: Probably not, because of the lack of experience, depth, and the simple fact that Michael Vick is the one throwing them the football.
Rushing Defense: 2005: 4.7 yds per carry
That's atrocious. I mean, that's truly terrible. Almost five yards every time the other team decides to run the football? People didn't need to throw the football against the Falcons. THe question is.... can they improve in this category?
Is John Abraham there to tackle opposing rushers? No. Can Lawyer Milloy stop opposing rushers? No, he's old and the team he was on last year, Buffalo, was even worse against the run. Can Edge Hartwell's return make a difference? Maybe, but this was developing as a problem even before Hartwell exited stage right.
Here's what I don't understand. The rushing defense, by and large, was the bane of this team last year (besides Vick, of course). What do they do? They go out and massively upgrade their passing defense (Abraham, Williams, Milloy, etc.). Their passing defense should be great, though the curse of having a rookie cornerback might fall upon them as well.
Basically, here are the reason to be optimistic if you are a Falcons fan:
-- Michael Vick is a superior athlete -- Warrick Dunn still has some great years left in him -- John Abraham should help the pass rush tremendously -- You are set in the secondary for a good while
Can those reasons offset these?
-- Michael Vick is a terrible quarterback -- TJ Duckett looked done -- The wide receiving corps is weak -- Little was done to upgrade the rushing defense
Tack that along with the simple fact that the Falcons couldn't beat anyone last year and have to play Tampa Bay and Carolina twice (along with a slightly improved New Orleans team), and you get a recipe that will make for a mighty interesting offseason. My guess? Either Mora or Vick is gone by the start of the 2007 season.
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