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OK, because I missed Monday-Wednesday with job-hunting stuff, I'm going to write this in one shot. Wish me luck
Oh, and even though I nailed Pittsburgh last year as the champs, it was pure luck. All picks are still guaranteed to lose money at your bookie.
Houston Texans
The Skinny: There are a lot of changes with this team. Dom Capers and crew are gone. Charlie Casserly is gone after missing both Reggie Bush and Vince Young. In steps former Denver Broncos offensive Coordinator(and Texas A&M alumnus) Gary Kubiak, who will most likely install a similar offense to Mike Shanahan's in Denver.
Position-by-position
Quarterback
Starter: David Carr still has a great arm and leadership skills, but like every single year, it remains to be seen if he can get the necessary protection.Grade: B-
Depth: Former Dolphin QB Sage Rosenfels has taken very few snaps in an NFL gameGrade: D
Running Back
Starter: With Domanick Davis out for the season, Wali Lundy gets the first crack at the starting job Grade: D
Depth: Vernand Morency is the only healthy backup at the moment.Grade: D+
Wide reciever
Starters: Adding Eric Moulds was a coup for the Texans, he brings some experience alongside Andre Johnson. Grade: A
Depth: Depleted by the loss of Corey Bradford, Grade: C-
Tight End
Starter: For now, it looks like the Texans will go with some combination of Jeb Putzier and Mark Bruener unless Rookie Owen Daniels makes a huge impact. Grade: C
Depth: Well, at least they have 3 tight ends they think can play Grade: C
Offensive Line
Starters: This was the number one need for the 4th consecutive offseason and the Texans lack-of-braintrust still failed to improve the position.Grade: F
Reserves: If the starters are an F, what grade do you think the guys who couldn't beat them out get? That right... Grade: F
Defensive Line
Starters: Say what you want about Mario Williams, he may just turn out to be a quality 4-3 DE. Also with the Transition to the 4-3, last year's first rounder Travis Johnson should break out. Grade: C+
Depth: N.D. Kalu, who's more of a 3-4 end, could see some playing time, but none of the other defensive linemen are all that impressiveGrade: C
Linebacker
Starters: Morlon Greenwood had 112 tackles last year at OLB, and Rookie DeMeco Ryans might help solidify the inside. Who plays opposite these two is the big question mark.Grade: B-
Depth: DaShon Polk had 93 tackles last year as an ILB, but was squeezed out with the move to the 4-3. Grade: C+
Cornerback
Starters: Dunta Robinson still has upside, but the corner opposite, Phillip Buchanon, is coming off an ankle injury.Grade: B-
Depth: Dexter McCleon is past his prime and Lewis Sanders, is something of an unknown quantityGrade: C
Safeties
Starters: With Marcus Coleman off to the Cowboys (and on suspension), second year man C.C. Brown and third year man Glenn Earl will take over the starting roles Grade: D
Depth: The backup safeties are nothing to write home about.Grade: F
Specialists
Kicker: Kris Brown hit 76.5% of his field goals. Which means he roughly misses 1 out of every 4 Grade: D
Punter: Chad Stanley's net average: 38.8 Grade: C
Returners: Buchanon, if healthy will probably resume return duties Grade: B
Coaching
Head Coach: We know Gary Kubiak is a top offensive playcaller, but the jury is still out on his game management skills.Grade: B-
Offensive Coordinator: Former Green Bay Packers head coach Mike Sherman is listed as the top offensive assistant, but make no mistake, this is Kubiak's offense, and it was part of the reason all those Denver backs got 1000 yardsGrade: A
Defensive Coordinator: Richard Smith moves over from the Dolphins to take over the Defensive Coordinator position, it's hard to say how much of an impact he's going to have because he was basically running Nick Saban's scheme, and now he's got to devise one of his own.Grade: D
Best Record Guess: Without a better offensive line, Expect a repeat of last year. You can't scheme your way out of a bad offensive line.2-14, dead last.
The Rest of the South
Jacksonville: Jacksonville's record last year was better than 5 of the 8 division champions. Even with Jimmy Smith's retirement, there'Best Guess: 11-5, Division Champs
Indianapolis: There's no reason to think that Indy won't win the division... What's that? Edgerrin James signed with the Cardinals? Oh, never mind. But, they still have enough pieces to be a playoff team. Best Guess: 10-6, possible wild card.
Tennessee: The QB situation may be a mess, as the Titans are hesitant to play Vince Young too early, but there's still talent surrounding the eventual starter (whomever that may be). Still, the Titans defense needs work.Best Guess: 5-11
The rest of the AFC
AFC EastTeamBest Record GuessThe SkinnyMiami
10-6
I'm going to say what a lot of people want to say, but can't because they're afraid of offending Bill Belichick: The Dolphins have the pieces, the coaching, and the drive to overtake the Patriots this year. Sure we all know about Daunte Culpepper, but the key pickup no one is talking about is Will Allen.
New England
9-7
If it weren't for Belichick and Tom Brady, this would be a 6-10 team. The Salary Cap toll is going to start showing this year, as the Patriots front office starts to find out how replaceable their parts really are.
New York Jets
6-10Chad Pennington is back, but there's no depth at running back, and implementing a 3-4 is probably the worst thing that could have happened to this defense.
Buffalo4-12Aside from Willis McGahee, this team is a mess on offense. And the defense could only stop the Houston Texans.
AFC NorthTeamBest Record GuessThe SkinnyPittsburgh13-3Even with Roethlisberger's bad offseason and the loss of Antwaan Randle-El, the defense is still there, Willie Parker is now the unquestioned starter, and Santonio Holmes will provide a nice complement to Hines Ward in time.
Cincinnati11-5Surprise, Carson Palmer is back, but will he stay healthy? Everything else is in place for another playoff run.
Baltimore
8-8Even though Steve McNair is the quarterback for this team, the once-vaunted defense is getting long in the tooth.
Cleveland4-12The experts say this team could reach .500 this year. I say: Prove it.
AFC WestTeamBest Record GuessThe SkinnyDenver
10-6
Yes, people will call for Jake Plummer's head, and the running back situation is uncertain, but Denver should still win the division this year. Some running back will get 1,000 yards, and the defense will be solid.
San Diego
9-7
Even with the loss of Steve Foley for the season(gunshot from overzealous off-duty cop), the Chargers defense should still be decent. And Phillip Rivers has too many weapons around him to fail.
Kansas City
5-11
When your tackle is Kyle Turley, your offensive line has issues. When you have no quality defensive linemen and you want to run Cover 2, your whole defense has issues.
Oakland
4-12
Art Shell: Great as a person, good coach. However, the alleged talent on defense is too old, they don't have a solid #1 running back, and Aaron Brooks is a bad QB.
AFC Playoffs
Division Champs
Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)
Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Denver Broncos (10-6)
Wild Cards
Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Wild Card Round
Miami over Indianapolis
Cincinnati over Denver
Division Round
Miami over Jacksonville
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
AFC Championship
Pittsburgh over Miami
Dallas Cowboys
The Skinny: Well, the Cowboys have had back-to-back quality drafts, and they have been very active in free agency. Now it's time for the Cowboys to produce
Position-by-position
Quarterback
Starter: Drew Bledsoe returns as the Cowboys' starter for 2006, and the veteran finally has some weapons to throw to. However, he's still past his prime as a quarterback and he still needs his offensive line to keep him upright. Grade: C+
Depth: Tony Romo seems to be getting better as a quarterback, and could be a quality backup, but let's not get ahead of ourselves and peg him as a future starter Grade: B-
Running Back
Starter: Julius Jones will probably start. He has the speed to be a great NFL running back, but he hasn't shown the durability. Grade: B+
Depth: Marion Barber III is more of a power runner, but he should see a decent amount of action without the productivity dropping off too much.Grade: A-
Wide reciever
Starters: All the talk has been about T.O., who should improve the Cowboys' passing numbers once he figures out that he's not going to win a media battle with Bill Parcells. Just don't forget about Terry Glenn. Grade: A+
Depth: Patrick Crayton was a surprise find for the Cowboys last year, and should give the Cowboys a decent 3rd reciever Grade: D
Tight End
Starter: You can start the debate over whether the Cowboys' Jason Witten or the Eagles' L.J. Smith is the best tight end in the East. One thing's for sure, Witten means the Cowboys don't have to put a 4th reciever on the field in passing situations Grade: A.
Depth: Dan Campbell is gone, and the backups have little experience Grade: B
Offensive Line
Starters: Two big holes at left guard, with Larry Allen departing for the Cardinals, and right tackle, which right now is a revolving door Grade: C+
Reserves: Well, Rob Pettiti and Al Johnson, who started last year, are backups this year. At least there's some experience Grade: C
Defensive Line
Starters: With surprise performer Chris Canty, Jason Ferguson, and Marcus Spears expected to be the big contributors, this could be the best pure 3-4 defensive line in the NFC Grade: A
Depth: This is where it gets a little murky. Greg Ellis has moved to linebacker, and La'Roi Glover is gone. that leaves second year man Jay Ratliff and rookie Jason Hatcher to back up the ends Grade: C
Linebacker
Starters: Ellis has proven he can make open-field tackles at linebacker, DeMarcus Ware is on track for a breakout season, and former Jaguar Akin Ayodele should help solidify the middle. Bobby Carpenter will eventually start. Grade: A
Depth: Rookie Kevin Burnett and Al Singleton could see some snaps. Grade: B
Cornerback
Starters: Terrence Newman and Anthony Henry should make a great tandem Grade: A
Depth: Aaron Glenn has apparently lost a step, but should still be able to cover the other team's 3rd reciever. After that, it's questionable Grade: C
Safeties
Starters: Roy Williams is still Roy Williams. Keith Davis is not Roy Williams, but he's survived a bullet in the leg to win the starting job Grade: B-
Depth: Unfortunately, Marcus Coleman's suspension means that the Cowboys depth at this position is limited. Grade: D
Specialists
Kicker: Whatever you think of Mike Vanderjagt, he's a hell of a lot better than what the Cowboys had last year Grade: A
Punter: Mat McBriar can Grade: A
Returners: Right now it's Tyrus Thompson and Terrence Newman, we'll see how it goes Grade: C
Coaching
Head Coach: Bill Parcells is still one of the best coaches in the game. While he's faced with a unique player management challenge, he does have the upper hand in that . Grade: A
Offensive Coordinator: Tony Sparano is the de facto offensive coordinator, but Parcells will probably make most of the play calls. Don't expect anything fancy. Grade: B
Defensive Coordinator: Mike Zimmer had to adjust to calling a 3-4 defense last year and he passed the test with flying colors. Grade: B+
Best Record Guess: My head says I should be cautious, but there's too many pieces here not to go out and at least grab a piece of the NFC East crown. 11-5 and a Wild Card
The Rest of the East
Philadelphia: I'm sure Philly fan wants to see Donovan McNabb show he can put the T.O. thing behind him, and Donte Stallworth helps in that regard. And the defense is solid. The problem is, everyone else in the division made significant improvements. Best Guess:10-6
New York Giants: OK, Giants, now let's see what you can do when you play against a *real* schedule. Best Guess: 8-8.
Washington: With Clinton Portis expected to miss significant time, it's hard to see the Redskins having any net improvement. Besides, when Dan Snyder spends money on a free agent, they usually turn out to be busts. Best Guess: 6-10, 3rd Place
The rest of the NFC
NFC NorthTeamBest Record GuessThe SkinnyChicago
9-7Once again, NFL rules state that someone has to win the NFC North, and the defending division champs are probably in the best position with their defense and running game.
Minnesota
8-8Hard to tell how things will go with this team, but Brad Johnson's veteran leadership should help things on the offensive side of the ball.
Detroit
6-10They can't get any worse than they were last year, but they're not even close to playoff bound.
Green Bay
4-12Brett Favre can't save this team anymore.
NFC SouthTeamBest Record GuessThe SkinnyCarolina
12-4The defense is back, Keyshawn Johnson should complement Steve Smith, and DeShaun Foster gets to carry the load full time.
Tampa Bay
11-5OK, it's not the glory days of the Warren Sapp-led unit, but the Tampa defense is still very good, and they have some good offensive pieces
Atlanta
9-7
Another team that's hard to pinpoint. Michael Vick is back, the defense was upgraded in the offseason, but T.J. Duckett was traded and Warrick Dunn has never been a 30 carry per game back.
New Orleans1-15
They need more pieces besides just Reggie Bush and Deuce McCallister.
NFC WestTeamBest Record GuessThe SkinnySeattle11-5Even without Steve Huchinson, defending NFC champ Seattle still has the core of what got them to the Super Bowl
Arizona6-10
New Stadium, new quarterback, new running back, same old lousy Cardinals.
San Fransisco5-11
Alex Smith has plenty of weapons to throw to now, but losing Julian Peterson and Andre Carter stunts the overall growth of this team.
St. Louis4-12
Yeah, Torry Holt is still there, as is Stephen Jackson, but it's going to take time to transition to the new offense. And Adam Archuleta may not help Washington, but his loss hurts St. Louis's D
NFC Playoffs
Division Champs
Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Chicago Bears (9-7)
Wild Card
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Wild Card Round
Tampa Bay over Chicago
Dallas over Philadelphia
Division Round
Seattle over Dallas
Carolina over Tampa Bay
NFC Championship
Carolina over Seattle
Super Bowl Pick
It worked so well last year, we're going with Pittsburgh again this year.
Pittsburgh over Carolina
Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 9
AFC Preview
East
1) Miami Dolphins (11-5)
"Always be wary of the trendy pick." I've repeated that sentiment on this site more times than I've questioned Derek Jeter's - well, not that much, but I've still said it a lot. Knowing this, I'm still going to make the trendy pick and go with the Dolphins to win the AFC East. (This is the NFL prediction equivalent of me drinking Jager. I don't want to do it but, dammit, I have to, consequences be damned.)
My outlook on the Dolphins season has changed as often as Reese Witherspoon's hairstyles in Legally Blonde. (For those counting at home, she had 40, one for every day Noah spent on the ark. That's the truth. Half of it, anyway.) On one hand, I think Daunte Culpepper might have been vastly overrated in Minnesota. Sure, he put up huge numbers with Randy Moss but, then again, so did Randall Cunningham, Brad Johnson and Kerry Collins. With his still-recovering ACL, it's not difficult to see Daunte struggling in Miami.
Remember, the Vikings were 2-5 with Daunte last year and 7-2 without. I'm going to repeat that for effect. With Daunte: 2-5. Without Daunte: 7-2. I might have missed the first day of statistics in order to go eat at Quizno's, but even without knowing what standard deviation is, I know that 7-2 is a lot better than 2-5.
Ergo, the change from Gus Frerotte to Culpepper might not be as positive as Nick Saban's hair believes.
Key Player: Ronnie Brown, RB Brown didn't fall to me in my fantasy draft, so I was forced to take Domanick Davis. As a result, I hope he comes down with a 17-week bout of food poisoning. He'll need a 1,200 yard, 8 TD season if the Dolphins want to dethrone the Pats.
Biggest Game: September 7 at Pittsburgh Yowzers! That's tomorrow! We'll see how Daunte's knee holds up and whether Ronnie Brown will make my fantasy season even more painful than it's already going to be.
Playoff Chances: Partly Sunny After ripping Daunte that hard, I have no clue why I'm picking the Dolphins to go 11-5. It must be Nick Saban's handsomeness.
2) New England Patriots (10-6)
Dynasties don't fade away as much as they collapse, just ask the Alaungpaya's. The Brits popped into Myanamar and BAM! King Bagyidaw and his peoples were out on the streets selling crack within minutes.
While I doubt Bill Belichick will be offering to squegee your windshield next season, the luster has already started coming off the Patriots shine. They took advantage of a weak schedule to finish a mediocre 10-6. This year they'll do the same, but it won't be enough to get into the playoffs.
Key Player: Tom Brady, QB I'm glad Sports Illustrated printed this quote about Brady from an opposing scout, "The best player on the team is still Tom Brady," because without it, I'd be thinking Reche Caldwell was the main man in Boston.
Biggest Game: None The Patriots are the definition of a veteran team. No game is bigger than any other to them.
Playoff Chances: Mostly sunny The schedule is easy (the division plays the AFC South and NFC North) and Brady is still Brady so, until further notice, Pats fans should keep their January weekends clear.
3) Buffalo Bills (6-10)
Everybody loves to rip Daniel Snyder and his free-spending ways (even though he hasn't erratically spent since 2000), but of those people, I'd ask the following question: Would you rather root for a team that has an owner who tries to improve it in the off-season or one that acquires Peerless Price and Larry Triplett and heads to Miami Beach for a little shuffleboard.
Do you know how depressing it must be to be a Bills fan? Not only do you likely live in Buffalo, not only did you lose four Super Bowls in a row, not only is your quarterback named J.P., but your team did nothing in the offseason to better itself despite an offense and a defense that both ranked 29th in the NFL in 2005.
Key Player: Willis McGahee, RB He has to create something out of nothing. And by nothing, I mean J.P. Losman.
Biggest Game: September 24 vs. New York Jets It's a near certainty they'll both be 0-2 heading into this game. Loser has the inside track at last place.
Playoff Chances: J.P. Losman. Rinse. Repeat.
4) New York Jets (1-15)
At least Jets fans can look forward to booing whichever player the team takes with the #1 overall pick in the 2007 Draft. That should keep them warm during the terrible season their team is about to embark on. Because with a weak-armed QB, a San Francisco cast-off and a new coach, the only thing in New York that will be more ugly than the Jets this year is Sarah Jessica Parker.
Key Player: Mike Nugent, K It's sad, I know.
Biggest Game: November 5 vs. BYE Even then, the Jets will probably be a four-point underdog.
Playoff Chances: As miniscule as A. Rod's clutch-hitting ability That's synergy, folks.
North
1) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
Preseason football isn't good for much except lining the pockets of already-rich NFL owners, creating awesomely-entertaining feuds between newspaper colleagues and getting Clinton Portis hurt. But preseason football, even though mostly useless, does provide one key area of critique for teams: Quarterback play.
It was last preseason when the ineptitude of Patrick Ramsey became apparent; leading to his quick demotion in what would end-up being a playoff season. And this year, the preseason has shown Bengals fans that Carson Palmer appears to be recovering quite well from that gruesome knee injury that took place just 241 days ago.
Palmer has looked strong, poised and confident in the pocket and appears to be suffering no ill-effects from the injury on his throwing motion. Whether he'll be able to withstand the rigors of a 16-game season remains to be seen but, at the moment, Bengals fans have reason to be cautiously optimistic with their franchise player, provided Chris Henry doesn't shoot him in a locker room drive-by.
Key Player: Carson Palmer, QB He should ask for Eli Manning's advice on how to protect his knees. Wait for it... wait for it... There you go.
Biggest Game: December 31 vs. Pittsburgh The schedule-makers didn't do Cincy any favors down the stretch, as they finish at Indy, at Denver and then home against their division rival. The team will need to capitalize on their easy four-game stretch prior to that (at NO, at CLE, vs. BAL, vs. OAK) if they want to have any shot at repeating.
Playoff Chances: It's Carson's World If Carson Palmer can stay healthy, the Bengals should make a return trip to the playoffs for their first time since 1982 (and only the second time in franchise history.)
2) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Remember that show Twin Peaks where a pre-Desperate Housewives Kyle MacLachlan investigated the death of a small-town girl named Laura Palmer? ABC had a big ad-campaign around that show and posted billboards and distributed t-shirts with the question, "Who killed Laura Palmer." If I were an enterprising Steelers fans, I would have made some t-shirts saying, "Who killed Carson Palmer," with a picture of Palmer writhing on the ground after the van Oelfhoffen hit. Tasteless, sure. Kitschy, yet timely: Absolutely. A steal at $10 a pop in the Heinz Field parking lot? Boss.
As I wrote yesterday, the Steelers were on the verge of missing the playoffs last season before they went on their magical Super Bowl run. They'll still be a good team this year but with a banged-up Big Ben, the absence of Jerome Bettis and his 110 carries and the prospect of every team getting hyped to beat the defending champs, the Steelers will be very fortunate to duplicate their 11-5 mark. (Their schedule seems pretty easy at this point though.)
Key Player: Willie Parker, RB He needs to prove he can carry the load without Bettis. His frame suggests this will be a problem.
Biggest Game: September 18 at Jacksonville Pittsburgh has 11 days off between tomorrow night's opener and their next contest, plenty of time for Roethlisberger to heal from his emergency appendectomy. If he doesn't play at Jacksonville, though, there might be trouble on the horizon.
Playoff Chances: Most Sunny With the Chiefs, Broncos, Patriots and Colts all figuring to be worse than they were a year ago, the AFC race is wide open. The Steelers easy schedule and experience bode well for them.
3) Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
I've always been a big Steve McNair fan, dating back to his dark-horse Heisman trophy campaign while at Alcorn State. But I have to say how surprised I'm surprised by the quickness in which McNair went from being thought of as washed-up to his current stature as franchise savior. I happen to think McNair will help the Ravens improve, but there's only so much an aging vet with bad knees can do with a shaky offensive line and no running game.
But, as always, the Ravens are a threat to make the playoffs because of their top-notch defense. If the o-line can keep McNair healthy and the defense can force turnovers, we might be forced with a few more years of Brian Billick press conferences.
Key Player: Jamal Lewis, RB Nobody expects him to run for 2,000 yards, but if McNair can keep defenses honest enough to give him some holes, Lewis could experience a return to form in '06.
Biggest Game: November 19 vs. Atlanta I have the Ravens sitting at 5-4 headed into their matchup against the Falcons in Baltimore. If they can grab a win there, they could be a factor in December.
Playoff Chances: Mostly cloudy If you want an idea of just how old Steve McNair is, he played two seasons for the Houston Oilers.
4) Cleveland Browns (6-10)
Leave it to Cleveland to entrust their season to a quarterback just because he went to college in the same city where LeBron James was born. If Charlie Frye does come through though, Ohio might just have to change their state capital to Akron. And yes, I just checked to make sure the capital of Ohio was not, in fact, Akron.
Key Player: Charlie Frye, QB His name is Charlie for crap's sake. Shouldn't he be running a chocolate factory instead of quarterbacking one of the proudest franchises in the league?
Biggest Game: It doesn't matter.
Playoff Chances: Seriously... Doesn't matter.
South
1) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
For this first time in the brief history of Chris's Sports Blog, I will not be picking the Indianapolis Colts to win the Super Bowl. (In checking that fact I discovered that I was wrong yesterday when I said I had never picked the Redskins to make the playoffs. In Gibbs' first year back, I predicted a 10-6 record and Wild Card appearance. Oops.) What does this mean, you ask? Bet heavy on the Indianapolis Colts.
The two most intriguing storylines in the NFL this season both involve Edgerrin James. His addition to Arizona's potent passing attack will be much-scrutinized early in the season but, perhaps just as interesting will be what his departure means to the Colts.
I could be wrong (and as evidenced above, often am) but other than Eric Dickerson, I can't think of another running back in his prime moving from a good team to a bad one. (And Dickerson's Rams weren't as good as the Colts had been; they won just one NFC West title during his time there - but did make the playoffs each year.) But even the Dickerson situation isn't comparable because he was traded early in the season after the Rams got off to an 0-3 start in the strike-shortened '87 campaign. (They then went .500 without him.) In their first two full seasons without Dickerson, however, the Rams made the playoffs both times.
The Edge question is sort of like the chicken and the egg. Was the Colts offense so good because of Edgerrin or was Edgerrin so good because of the Colts offense?
As with most questions of this nature, the answer probably lies somewhere in between. Other than a few superstars (Barry Sanders and Walter Payton, to name two), great running backs need great offensive lines. If Terrell Davis had played for the Browns, we never would have heard of him.
Indy's offense might take a hit, but they can afford to. If the defense keeps improving, the Colts will have another fine year.
Key Player: Dominic Rhodes, RB You were expecting Raheem Brock, perhaps?
Biggest Game: November 5 at New England Forget the win last year, Peyton still needs to prove he can win the big ones.
Playoff Chances: Mostly sunny The odds of the Colts making the playoffs are about as good as Peyton Manning choking in them.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
Maybe you remember the Jags were pretty good last year. Maybe you even remember they made the playoffs. But did you have any idea Jacksonville was 12-4 just one season ago? I don't know what I thought their record was, but I'm positive I wouldn't have guessed any higher than 11-5. Twelve wins? That's the real deal. So why doesn't it feel like it?
Perhaps it's because Jacksonville had a soft schedule. The quirks of the NFL's scheduling are rarely mentioned after a successful season, but in the Jags case it should have been. If their slate had been any easier they would have been playing Virginia Tech's non-conference schedule.
So why isn't there more post-season schedule scrutiny? We talk about it at the beginning of the year, but not at the end. After all, an easy schedule in August has a way of turning into a brutal one in December and vice-versa. The NFL has more turnover than Al-Queda's #2, so evaluating a schedule's difficulty is impossible before the season. There are so many examples of this, but I'm too tired to find one from last year so instead I'll do what I always do and use the Redskins: Prior to last season there were a few "gimmie" games on their slate; vs. Chicago and at Tampa among them. Those ended up being two of the hardest games of the season. Conversely, two of the games that seemed to be the hardest in August of '05 (both Philly games) were among the easiest.
While the current schedule-making formula is far from perfect, it allows for much less quirkiness than the days of the unbalanced divisions. The NFC East had it tougher than the NFC North last year because they had to play both the Western divisions, but at least the four Eastern teams were playing on a fairly-level playing field. Back in the day there was no continuity intradivisionally except for playing the same AFC division and even then teams still could have different opponents because the divisions had more than four teams.
The current system isn't perfect because some divisions have it easier than others (would you rather play the NFC East or NFC West this season?), but it's a lot fairer than in baseball when the Devil Rays get 57 games against the Yanks, Sox and Blue Jays while the Twins had 57 against Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit. (That example would have worked a lot better last year.)
John Clayton wrote a fine column about schedule strength and I agree with his assertion that the Giants and Bengals schedules are brutal. But neither the Giants or Bengals can gripe. Because if you don't want to face four first place teams each season, don't frickin' finish in first yourself! To the victor goes the spoils, or something like that. In the NFL's case, the spoils are facing the defending champs of your division's two pre-assigned pairs plus the first-place teams from the remaining intra-conference divisions. Sure it's tough and I used the word "divisions" a lot in the last sentence, but that's what you get when you win. Plus, who knows if facing the Bears and Seahawks is going to be worse than playing the Lions and Rams or Vikings and Cardinals this year. You never know in the NFL.
Why did all this come up during the talk on Jacksonville? I don't know. The Jags aren't a 12-4 team. They'll come back down to earth this year, but only a little.
Key Player: Matt Jones, WR This has nothing to do with the fact that he's on my fantasy team. I promise.
Biggest Game: October 1 at Washington Out of conference games count the same as in-conference games, kind of. After starting off with Dallas, Pittsburgh and Indy, the Jags might need a win in Washington to be at .500 for their week 7 bye.
Playoff Chances: Solid No NFL team can afford injuries, but the Jags are really in a bind if starters should go down.
3) Tennessee Titans (5-11)
Man, Norm Chow really got a pass from the media last year, didn't he? Wasn't he supposed to be some sort of offensive genius? Yet the only thing that was offensive was his offense. That was lame. But it's late and I need to get this done.
Key Player: Billy Volek, QB The quicker he shows his crappiness, the quicker the Titans can make the transition to Vince Young.
Biggest Game: December 10 at Houston Young should be playing by this point and will give the Texans a first-hand glimpse of what they missed by passing on him, Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart and every other player eligible for the draft last year.
Playoff Chances: You never know Except sometimes you do.
4) Houston Texans (4-12)
Sometimes I'll look back on my reaction to a certain event and I'll be surprised by my conviction or lack thereof on a given topic. Today, I went back to see what I wrote about the Texans taking Mario Williams to see if I thought it was as dumb at the time as I do know. Thankfully, I didn't disappoint.
That's all I'm going to say about the Texans because Domanick Davis killed my fantasy season and, thusly, my soul.
Key Player: Mario Williams, DE I'd sort of feel bad for him but he somehow got a $25 million contract despite not being all that good in college, so I won't lose any sleep over rooting against him.
Biggest Game: Like Paul Tagliabue couldn't have tinkered with the schedule on his way out to make the Texans play the Saints Dude, David Stern would have had 'em playing three times including twice on Christmas.
Playoff Chances: About as good as Mario Williams being better than Reggie Bush
West
1) San Diego Chargers (10-6)
Before starting these lengthy NFL predictions (Bill Simmons like to brag about how long his columns are; well, his NFL preview ran 5,489 words which was more than 200 words less than my NFC preview alone. The total for both this one and yesterday's: 9,927 words. And I have a job and am in school. And I didn't bitch out and pick my favorite team to win it all, sucka)... Anyway, the first thing I did was predict the finishing order in each of the league's eight divisions. Then I went through the entire 256-game schedule and picked each game, tallying up the win totals for each team along the way. Surprisingly (to me at least), these two methods resulted in identical final standings, save for one: On my original sheet I had the Broncos winning the AFC West. After going through each game, the Chargers came out on top. Against my better instincts, I'm sticking with the latter.
I'm basing this on one belief: Drew Brees was never as good as I thought he was. I've been a fan of Brees for a while, but he sort of reminds me of Brad Johnson in that he's good enough not to lose games but not great enough to win them. With two of the most potent offensive weapons in the league at his disposal in LDT and Antonio Gates, Brees and the Chargers should have been scoring more than Colin Farrell in Cozumel. Maybe it's Marty Schottenheimer's fault (actually, it's definitely Marty's fault), but Brees seemed to underachieve even when it appeared he was overachieving.
If Philip Rivers is remotely competent, the Chargers will improve from last year's disappointing campaign.
Key Player: Philip Rivers, QB Danie is the best player in football but it's Rivers' show.
Biggest Game: September 11 at Oakland With an early bye week, the Chargers need to get out of the gate quickly. A loss against a terrible Oakland team would have San Diego playing a game of catch-up that they might not be able to finish.
Playoff Chances: 50/50 The Chargers have three of the best players in football in LDT, Gates and Shawne Merriman. If Schottenheimer doesn't screw it up, they could be a surprise out west.
2) Denver Broncos (8-8)
Remember that whole Jake Plummer petition thing? We had a good time with that, didn't we? Features on major Web sites, interviews with a handful of radio stations but, most importantly, raising the national consciousness on mustache awareness and prevention-prevention. I actually got a call a few days ago from a wire service asking if the petition was still ongoing.
I answered with an affirmative "hell yes!" because Plummer still refuses to grow back his living tribute to Tom Selleck and instead chooses to rock a beard that makes him look like the next in line to marry Kate Hudson. Trust me, if I could pick the Broncos to lose 15 games, I would. But the Chiefs and Raiders are so weak I could bench press them. So the bearded one gets the nod. But it's one of those upward nods that suggests an ass-kicking is imminent should I not receive a pleasant hello in return.
With a mustachioed Plummer, the Broncos would be my pick to win it all. Instead they're just my pick to be better than Aaron Brooks.
Key Player: Karma Plummer's spitting in its face every time he trots out onto the field sans the 'stache.
Biggest Game: Every morning when Plummer looks in the mirror
Playoff Chances: Rises and falls with Gillette stock The Cliff's Notes of The Iliad told me two things: 1) I wouldn't have liked The Iliad and 2) You can only beat the fates once. The Broncos did it last year. That junk ain't happenin again.
3) Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)
At the risk of repeating myself, I'm going to:The loss of both Al Saunders and Dick Vermeil totally changes the complexion of the Kansas City Chiefs. Herm Edwards is a defensive coach and the new offensive coordinator, Mike Solari, is an o-line guy. (He worked with Saunders for the better part of the last decade so some might say the transition will be made with ease; but let’s not forget that some coaches might be brilliant working with, say, an o-line but struggle when they get a promotion. The Redskins Joe Bugel is a prime example of this. And that’s no knock of Buges or Mike Solari, either. But some guys are just better in the trenches than they are in the booth.)
Roaf’s retirement also kills the Chiefs o-line. When the future Hall of Famer missed chunks of time in 2005 the running attack didn’t suffer greatly, but it forced Tony Gonzalez into blocking duty. With linebackers not focused on Gonzalez’s route running, they were able to stuff more men in the box to contend with Johnson and Holmes. That will happen again this year. Oh, and I didn't even mention Kyle Turley.
August 21, 2006 - NFL Preview: Day 1When I wrote that, I didn't even know the Chiefs didn't re-sign fullback Tony Richardson. Or maybe I did and just got so worked up that I forgot to mention it. Either way, that's yet another huge loss for that offense. Based on that info, I'm downgrading my forecast of Larry Johnson, which is impressive considering how low it was already. Factor in that the Chiefs defense has been terrible for years and it's going to be a long year in the midwest.
Key Player: Kyle Turley, LT Willie Roaf to Kyle Turley. There hasn't been a transition this bad since Leanna Creel replaced Tiffani-Amber Thiessen on Saved By The Bell.
Biggest Game: November 23 (Thanksgiving) vs. Denver Chances are, the most intriguing part of this game will be Bryant Gumble's commentary.
Playoff Chances: None This is the only solid prediction I'm making in this entire preview: The Kansas City Chiefs will not go to the playoffs.
4) Oakland Raiders (3-13)
Glitter, glisten, gloss, floss,
Aaron Brooks is fuckin' terrible.
Key Player: LaMont Jordan, RB Somebody's going to need to break-up the Moss/Brooks fistfight that will occur bi-weekly.
Biggest Game: December 31 at New York Jets This might be a battle for the #1 pick in the 2007 Draft, which will make it all the more bittersweet when the team's respective fans think of how close they were to getting Mario Williams.
Playoff Chances: Slim to None And I still can't believe the Texans didn't take Reggie Bush.
Denver Broncos Schedule
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