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With the NFL season starting tonight, and inspired by nearly seven hours of listening to ESPN Radio on my Sirius satellite radio during the drive to and from Yarmouth, here are my predictions for this season...
Super Bowl Champions
Cincinnati Bengals
Conference Champions
AFC -- Cincinnati Bengals
NFC -- Carolina Panthers
Division Champions
AFC East -- Miami Dolphins
AFC North -- Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South -- Indianapolis Colts
AFC West -- Denver Broncos
NFC East -- New York Giants
NFC North -- Chicago Bears
NFC South -- Carolina Panthers
NFC West -- Arizona Cardinals
MVP
Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals)
After a breakout season last year, Palmer will take his game, and his team, to the next level. The combination of great coaching (Marvin Lewis and Paul Alexander), excellent receiving (Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh) and better than average running (Rudi Johnson), all the pieces are in place for Palmer to live up to the potential that saw him drafted first overall in 2003.
Runners up: Daunte Culpepper (MIA), Peyton Manning (IND) and Larry Fitzgerald (ARI).
Defensive Player of the Year
Shawne Merriman (San Diego Chargers)
At a 6'4", 275 lbs., and with 4.66 second speed, Merriman is a freak at the linebacker position. He was one of the best defensive players in the NFL as a rookie in 2005 and, while NFL offensive co-ordinators know his game now, he will only get better. Merriman has the unique ability to change a game from a defensive position and will dominate opponents this year.
Runners up: Brian Urlacher (CHI), Julius Peppers (CAR) and Jason Taylor (MIA).
Best running back
Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams)
Finally out of the shadow of future hall of famer Marshall Faulk and free of the pass happy game plan of Mike Martz, Jackson will finally have the opportunity to live up to the hype. New head coach, Scott Linehan, will employ a more balanced offence by choice, as well as by necessity (Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are a year older). This will give Jackson the opportunity to finally be the great all-around running back he is capable of being. While he may not lead the NFL in rushing yards, he will dethrone Tiki Barber as the league's all-purpose yards leader in 2006.
Runners up: LaDainian Tomlinson (SD), Shaun Alexander (SEA) and Larry Johnson (KC).
Best wide receiver
Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals)
In 2006, Fitzgerald will make the leap to the position of the NFL's elite receiver. The Cards now have a credible running with Edgerrin James and, with Anquan Boldin patrolling the other side of the field, defences will not be able to focus on Fitzgerald. If Kurt Warner can regain anything resembling the form he showed between 1999 and 2001 with the Rams, we could see record numbers.
Runners up: Marvin Harrison (IND), Chad Johnson (CIN) and Randy Moss (LA).
Best tight end
Jeremy Shockey (New York Giants)
Antonio Gates numbers will suffer with Philip Rivers replacing Drew Brees at quarterback in San Diego and the aging Tony Gonzalez will see fewer touches in Kansas City where new head coach Herm Edwards has said he intends to run the ball 580 times this season. That will open the door for Shockey, who will flourish as Eli Manning becomes more mature in the Giants' offence.
Runners up: Antonio Gates (SD), Todd Heap (BAL) and Randy McMichael (MIA).
Rookie of the Year
AJ Hawk (Green Bay Packers)
It's hard not to pick Reggie Bush but Hawk, last year's Lombardi Award winner and first round draft pick, will start at linebacker for the Packers and get every opportunity to show his stuff as the team rebuilds. With Green Bay's abysmal offence, Hawk will be on the field alot and will have an immediate impact.
Runners up: Reggie Bush (NO), Joseph Addai (IND) and DeAngelo Williams (CAR).
(Or, football fun for people who still have enough self-respect not to spend hours wondering whether to start Peerless Price or Ashley Lelie this week.)
UPDATED WITH REST OF SUNDAY SCHEDULE
Blah, blah, blah. I can live with an opening night split, especially knowing in my heart of hearts that if Culpepper doesn't throw that late interception, Miami would've taken the game. (And that, as LBR pointed out the other day, Pittsburgh would probably outpoint Baltimore in the syphilis competition if the Women of Steel City didn't so resemble the Men of Earth that STDs are nonexistent). But such is NFL football.
So anyway, here are Sunday picks:
Never thought I'd hear myself say this but I like the Rams getting 3.5 at home over the mighty, Super Bowl bound Denver Broncos. And, over 46.
For some inexplicable reason, I also really dig the Jets (+3) over Tennessee, but this won't be a high scoring Scrub Bowl, so under 36 is the way to go.
KINDA PICK OF THE WEEK ALERT: This isn't my favorite of all, but the Birds sure seem like free money this week, don't they? Christ, Houston doesn't even have a running back. And if David Carr thinks the last few seasons were painful, wait till he gets a load of the Eagles new D. They'll cover the 4.5 by the end of the first quarter and never look back. Still, it'll be under 37. A 24-9 type game.
Everything in my mind keeps saying, "Carolina and the over. Carolina and the over." But rivalry games are never, ever gimmes, especially in an unpredicable week one. So, Carolina (with an aching Steve Smith and a never-can-tell Jake Delhomme) and the over becomes a trap. As much as I think Michael Vick is Ran-dall reincarnate, Atlanta might not win the game, but they'll come within five in a low-scoring 14-10 type event (read: under).
Dallas getting 2.5 at Jacksonville? Take it. Take it. Take it. And 36.5 is too low.
I'm having a lot of trouble buying into this rejuvenated Arizona Cardinals thang, but San Francisco is bad. Like, knife-fighting in a subway wearing a black pleather jacket Bad. But seven and a half is a lot of points in the NFL. And seven and a half is a lot MORE points when the most inept franchise in the sport is laying them. Don't let it stop you. Arizona steamrolls the Niners, so much so that I like the under 42 points because a) San Fran will barely score and b) Kurt Warner doesn't have six TDs left in his God-fearing arm. 34-3 final.
I want to take Chicago so friggin bad here, so much so that I'll probably rue the day I typed this, but here goes nothing: It's probably Favre's last opener and, as much as he's washed up and over-rated, I gots me a feelin' he'll keep the Pack within 3.5 and that, to do so, the game'll go over 35.
You'd have to figure New England wants to send a message - we're back, bitches - to the league. But nine's a lot of points to give up in a rivalry game, no? Well, in this case, no is right, barely. This is a 10-point game, with the Pat's ending up on the right side of things. Now, will they get to 41 points. I don't think so; under.
I'm not sold on Chris Simms having a breakthrough season yet. And I'm not sold on Ray Lewis being overrated and washed up. Dude's still bad-ass. LOCK ALERT!!!! Though I'm torn on Tampa giving three at home (Go with them), I can't see anyway in hell this game goes over 24, let alone 34. And just like that, the over/under lock of the week is exposed.
But that leaves us with a spread pick of the week. And believe me, in the first week, there's no such thing as an easy one, but Reggie Bush and New Orleans aren't even going to need the three points that Cleveland, effin Cleveland is laying. (Game'll go over 36, too).
And finally, little bro's gonna take care of Horsehead Manning in New York, at least covering the 3.5 and helping the game go over 48.
Godspeed, degenerates.
Denver Broncos Schedule
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