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Why make predictions, if you're not going to explain them? So, really quickly, this the rationale I used to forecast the 2006 NFL season:
AFC East
Why New England? I picked the Patriots because they've won the division in 3 straight seasons, have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and the Dolphins haven't improved enough for me to suggest that they'll unseat the Patriots. It wouldn't surprise me if it happened, I just don't expect to actually see it...this year.
Since I know New England fans...Why the lowly 10-6 record? That's what they finished with a year ago, and I don't think this team is significantly better than last year's team. Getting key players back from injuries (Richard Seymour, Matt Light, Dan Koppen) was a good start, but that's negated by Tedy Bruschi's wrist injury, the overall lack of depth at linebacker and the secondary, and the losses of Tom Brady's best two wide receivers. Oh yeah, they were too cheap to re-sign the most clutch kicker in the history of the NFL, as well.
Miami makes the playoffs? If Culpepper stays healthy, absolutely. With Daunte coming off a serious knee injury, that's not a certainty, but Culpepper is a freakish athlete, and the knee injury could actually keep him in the pocket, which is a good thing.
AFC North
Why Cincinnati? With all signs pointing to Carson Palmer being healthy, the Bengals will possess one of the more potent offenses in the NFL. They have Pro-Bowl talent all over the offense, and the defense has better talent than their rankings, and often their performance, has shown.
Why not Pittsburgh? After all, they're the defending champions! I didn't pick Pittsburgh to make the playoffs. Shocking, I know. Allow me to explain: This was a team that went on a magical run late in 2005. They needed to win their final 3 games to have a shot at making the playoffs, and to their credit, they got hot at exactly the right time. However, this year's schedule isn't so favorable, particularly late in the season when they go to Carolina, home against Baltimore and at Cincinnati. With Roethlisberger expected to miss 1-2 weeks at the beginning of the season (and I'm still not convinced he's over that motorcycle accident), can they win 10-11 games with that schedule and Chaz Batch starting at least 2 games at QB? I think not.
Baltimore in the playoffs? Absolutely. If Carson Palmer didn't look so good the last two weeks, Baltimore was going to be my pick to win the division. Why? After years of relying on dominating performances by the defense, and hoping that the offense wouldn't screw it up, the Ravens became a balanced team when they signed Steve McNair. He makes their passing attack dangerous, which should make some room for Jamal Lewis, and he gives them credibility in the post-season.
NFC South
Why Indianapolis? Because they're still the best team in the NFL, that's why. Keep in mind, we're still talking about the regular season here, but what was their biggest bugaboo in the playoffs last year? The "idiot kicker", who is gone. His replacement? The most clutch kicker in NFL history.
Won't they miss Edgerrin James? Absolutely, there's no question they'll miss what the "Edge" brought to the table. However, Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes are capable backs, and without James, they'll just throw the football more often. I hear they're pretty good at that.
Jacksonville missing the playoffs? Are you crazy? Quite possibly, but not because of this. The Jaguars have a solid defense, but I don't think they have the offense to make a serious playoff run this year. I actually like Bryon Leftwich a lot, but Fred Taylor's groin is 30 years old, and with Jimmy Smith retiring, I officially hate the wide receivers in Jacksonville. Matt Jones is intriguing, but beyond that, who do they have? Ernest Wilford? Reggie Williams? Yikes.
AFC West
Denver? Again? The one team who made me look stoopid last year were the Broncos. After losing to Miami in Week 1, I felt vindicated. After that, Denver very quietly racked up a dozen wins. I won't be making the same mistake this time. But it's more than bad juju at work here: This is damn good team. We all know they can run the ball with Stephen Hawking at tailback, but the offense has added Javon Walker to play opposite the ageless Rod Smith. That's a major upgrade over Ashley Lelie. The defense is pretty solid, they're well-coached and the schedule is favorable.
Wait a minute, what about the Chargers? The most hilarious spectacle during the playoffs last year were the Chargers whining about how if they were in the NFC, they'd have made the playoffs. That's great, guys, but explain why you lost two winnable games against the NFC last year?
The Chargers playoff expectations are immediately lowered when they let Drew Brees go, and chose to go with a 3rd-year rookie at QB. The defense is good, but they lost a key member of that defense when an off-duty police officer used Steve Foley as a practice target. It's important to mention that Marty Schottenheimer is prominantly involved, and that's rarely a recipe for playoff stew.
Larry Johnson could go over 2,000 yards! What about the Chiefs? With Tony Richardson signing in Minnesota, and Willie Roaf and Jon Welbourn retiring, I wouldn't count on a 2,000 yard season out of LJ.
I'm not saying the Chiefs are old, but Herm Edwards' famous "You play to win the game" pep talks will be replaced by "You play to get home in time to watch Matlock". Remember, this "well-seasoned" group made exactly one playoff appearance (a loss) under Dick Vermeil. Has anything happened this off-season to suggest a change in that pattern?
NFC East
Why Washington? This was one of those "oh, what the hell" type of predictions. Truthfully, any of these 4 teams could win the NFC East, and few would be surprised. More on this later...
Why not Dallas? In a division where everyone has well-coached, playoff-caliber teams, you look for reasons not to pick certain teams. Potential distractions (Terrell Owens) and QB controversies (The talk of replacing Drew Bledsoe with Tony Romo, whose never thrown an NFL pass) are two major reasons to not pick a team. Plus, Michael Irvin likes the Cowboys, and whatever direction he chooses to go, I'll go the opposite.
C'mon! Shockey. Burress. Eli. Why not the G-men? If a team commits too many penalties, drops too many passes, misses too many field goals, I can't pick them to win. Sorry, but the mighty Tom Coughlin-coached Giants are Downy soft.
You want cheese on that cheesesteak? Do not be surprised if Philadelphia gets a lil' frisky and reclaims the NFC East. The injuries last year were fluky, so I expect better play from the offensive line, McNabb and I think the duo of Reggie Brown and Donte Stallworth are going to turn some heads. It would not surprise me one bit to see Philadelphia in the playoffs, but I do have concerns about Brian Westbrook. If he gets hurt, it'll be sad times at Geno's.
Ok, so why Washington? It's simple. They have a veteran QB, Mark Brunell, a good offensive line, depth at RB (Clinton Portis, TJ Duckett, Ladell Betts) and enough options at wide receiver to keep opponents honest. The defense is very talented and with Gregg Williams, they're well-coached, too. Plus, I love that they finish with 4 of 6 games at home, and their two road games are against New Orleans and a rebuilding Rams team. They could be 5-5 on Thanksgiving, and still would be my pick to win the division.
NFC North
Can someone other than Chicago win the division? I guess it's possible, it's just not likely. The Bears defense is one of the best in the league, and if the offense doesn't screw it up, they'll repeat as NFC North champs, host a playoff game and that'll be that. Kind of like the 2003 Baltimore Ravens.
Will the "Love Boat" make another run? I only put this in here to make another reference to Cap'n Smoot. But since I'm here, I'll reluctantly admit that Minnesota could be a surprise team in 2006. I like Brad Childress and I like what they added in the off-season (adding that left guard, Tony Richardson and Chester Taylor). On paper, the Vikings have the makings of a good defense. Yet, for some reason, none of the experts seem to think they're very good. More on that when I make my weekly picks.
I'm a Cheesehead. What can I expect this year from Brett Favre? With two rookies starting inside, Favre will get sacked more than Paris Hilton this fall. He'll throw his share of interceptions, and after the season, you'll once again be jerked around by the "will he/won't he" speculation and nonsense. Has a career of a slamdunk Hall-of-Famer ever ended this painfully? At this point, even Packers fans have to want him to just ride his lawnmower into the sunset, right?
What about the Lions? Fire Millen.
NFC South
Why Carolina? The way people are talking about Carolina, you'd think they actually won the division last year (they didn't, Tampa Bay did). People have expectations for this group, and they should. John Fox is as good as there is in the NFL, and with Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Keyshawn Johnson, a stable of good running backs and a top-notch defense, the Panthers are going to be very good in 2006.
However, let's not get in over our heads here, ok? From listening to the guys at ESPN, and reading predictions on the Internets, you'd think this team were the reincarnation of the '85 Bears. It's not like that, folks. Remember, this was a team that thoroughly had their heads handed to them in Seattle last January, and with the tough schedules the Panthers, Bucs, and the NFC East, have to play this year, it's unlikely that any of these teams will finish with home-field advantage in January.
Can Tampa Bay Repeat? They sure could, but it's going to be tough. Carolina is the better team, but Tampa has the defense, the coaching and a developing offense that should take them back to the playoffs.
How About Michael Vick, er, I mean the Atlanta Falcons? Even though they have the talent, Atlanta doesn't play with enough consistency to make the playoffs. They can't stop the run, and until Vick shows he can be an NFL quarterback and let his receivers make the plays, this team will continue to book tee times in January.
Will New Orleans improve? Here's hoping Reggie Bush is worth the price of admission, since the rest of the team isn't. They should improve, but I don't know why they traded Donte Stallworth, and I don't know how they're going to keep opponents from scoring less than 30 points a game.
NFC West
Why Seattle? Last year the Seahawks were the best team in the conference. This year's team? They're even better.
Will Arizona make a playoff push? If Kurt Warner stays healthy, they'll flirt with the playoffs. The trouble is, its been 5 years since Warner has stayed healthy for 16 games, and the mess Dennis Green calls an offensive line pretty much guarantees 2006 won't be any different. They'll be better, though, and this is still a team on the rise. Trouble is, they started a lot lower than most teams do, so the climb is going to take a bit longer.
The Rest
Buffalo - JP Losman took hold of the starting QB job this summer. I'm not sure if thats a good thing or a bad thing.
NY Jets - My big J-E-T-S prediction: Kellen Clemens will be starting by mid-October.
Cleveland - Still not ready to compete for the playoffs, but Crennel was wise to bring in Willie McGinest to mentor future QB tormentor Kamerion Wimbley.
Tennessee - Kerry Collins signs with Tennessee, the home of Jack Daniels. This could be fun.
Houston - I'll defend the Texans selection of Mario Williams with the 1st overall pick for years to come, but it would've been nice to hear his name mentioned just once during the pre-season.
Oakland - As a Seahawks fan, I waited years and years for the Raiders to suck. Now that's it happened, we're in different conferences. Well played, Mr. Tagliabue, well played.
St. Louis - Remember Rams fans, you're depending on "The Haz" to rebuild your defense. Mike Brown did more good in New Orleans than Jim Haslett.
San Francisco - Just a hunch, but if Alex Smith needs to throw 11 interceptions for every touchdown pass again this season, the rebuilding process in San Francisco might take a bit longer than expected.
The biggest news of the day is that Colorado has signed DU's Paul Statsny. This is a crushing blow to Denver, who was hoping to contend for both a WCHA and NCAA title this upcoming season, but much more importantly, it's also a crushing blow to me, who will have to rewrite a large portion of my Denver preview. Statsny would have been a Hobey Baker candidate for this upcoming season. I'll have more on his departure of the ramifications in the WCHA sometime tomorrow, or later this week.
NTDP Forward Justin Vaive has committed to Miami of Ohio, according to Chris Heisenberg. Vaive is the son of former NHL player Rick Vaive. He's considered more of a power forward that is especially effective around the net.
Northern Michigan recruit Mark Santorelli has signed with a WHL team. The timing of the decision, and the fact that Santorelli could have played with his older brother at Northern Michigan next season, leads me to believe that Santorelli's decision was probably academically related, but that's just speculatino on my part.
Speaking of the WHL, I'm a month and a half late with this news, but I figured it was worth a mention. Colton Grant and Lucas Bloodoff were both traded away by the Tri-City Americans to different WHL teams early last June for 2007 draft picks. Both had said that they wouldn't sign with Tri-City because it was too far away from their home. Neither has signed yet, but it looks like there is the possibility that they could, which would be a loss for college hockey.
There was an interesting note in Charley "Shooter" Walters column in the St. Paul Pioneer Press yesterday about Wisconsin recruit Ryan McDonagh. He was offered a spot on the NTDP team next season, but he and coach Mike Eaves decided it would be best for McDonagh to return to Cretin-Derham Hall HS next season, where he could also play football and baseball. McDonagh would then play a year in the USHL after graduating before going to Madison in 2008. CDH won the Class AA state hockey championship last season, and McDonagh's return gives them another chance to win, as well as the opportunity for McDonagh to win the Mr. Hockey award. CDH also has a strong baseball program, producing players like Joe Mauer and Paul Molitor, and this gives McDonagh a chance to help lead them to a state title. I think it's a nice move by Eaves, showing that players don't have to leave for juniors or the NTDP to develop as a hockey player.
Canada is holding their tryout camp for the World Juniors. Of course, they could probably just draw 22 names out of a hat and still win the gold medal. Here is a list of who is attending. If Canada wanted to, they could pick a team created entirely of first round NHL draft picks. The three college players at the camp, Andrew Cogliano, Jonathan Toews, and Dan Bertram have already played for Team Canada's World Junior Team so they're likely to make it.
The rosters are up for the US Select 15 Festival. I should be in attendence for at least one day, so hopefully I'll be able to put together a write-up.
There's a fair amount of updates to the 2007 and 2008 Recruiting Boards if you're interested in checking that out. I've been trying to add links to articles in each player's profile. So if you've got one that I could use, I'd appreciate it if you emailed it to me.
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