Denver Broncos Roster

Compared to baseball, pro football analysis is still in the Stone Age. From the opening kickoff in the NFL's first game, Miami against Pittsburgh, on Thursday, Sept. 7, to the two-minute warning of the Super Bowl on Feb. 4, you'll hear announcers making sweeping proclamations for which there is no statistical basis. What's the truth about pro football's top 10 cherished myths?

1. "Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships."

As with most football clichés, there's no evidence for this one. The Indianapolis Colts led the league in points (430) and lost in the playoffs; but the Chicago Bears allowed the fewest (202), and they lost, too. The previous season, the Colts also led in scoring but then got lost in the playoffs; so did the Pittsburgh Steelers, who gave up the fewest points. NFL champions have almost always been great on both sides of the ball. As football historian T.J. Troupe puts it, the adage should be "Great defense beats great offense -- and vice versa."

I think we can safely say that a great defense or great offense can get you to the playoffs, but it can't get you over the top (see: Redskins, Seahawks, Colts, Bucs, etc.)

2. "You need a strong running game."

That's the one ex-coaches-turned-TV-color-men love the most. Do the numbers support it? Last year, the Atlanta Falcons led the NFL with 2,546 yards on the ground, 323 more than the Super Bowl champion Steelers. The Falcons finished 8-8.

History says if you can play defense and pass well, you can win with average running. In other words, if the Arizona Cardinals don't improve their passing and overall defense, the acquisition of Edgerrin James won't get them any closer to the playoffs.

Interesting......I guess that also means that the Colts should be just as good as they were last year (I am so sick of these Manning v. Manning ads).

3. "A turnover is a turnover."

But not all turnovers are created equal: Interceptions are usually much more important than fumbles. As Bud Goode, the father of football analysis, maintains, bad teams don't really fumble any more often than good teams, and, on the whole, the odds of recovering any fumble are about 50-50. (Teams that excel in either fewest fumbles lost or most fumbles recovered in one season generally revert to the norm the next.) Interceptions are always indicators of strength and weakness (good teams make them on defense and don't have them on offense). Plus, as Mr. Goode notes, "Interceptions have a far greater chance than fumbles of being returned for touchdowns."

See: Cincinnati Bengals- 28 Fumbles Recovered, 31 Ints.

4. "Great teams are built around the kicking game."

Last year, the Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders tied for the NFL's best punting average, 45.7 yards a shot. Those two combined for nine wins and 23 losses.

The Cardinals led the NFL in both field goals (40) and attempts (43) but finished 5-11. In most NFL games, punting and kicking make a difference only if the teams are otherwise evenly matched. As Aaron Schatz, lead author of Pro Football Prospectus 2006, explains, "The strongest teams aren't the ones with clutch kickers, but the ones who don't need them."

Wow this guy hates the Buzzsaw. This makes sense though.

5. "The draft creates parity."

The NFL's draft of the top college players is touted as creating parity in the league, since the worst teams get to pick first. It does nothing of the sort. Pro football analyst Steve Silverman sees it this way: "[New England's] Bill Belichick has been selecting pearls in the draft even though the Patriots finish at or near the top every season, because he's smart enough to know his team's needs. Good teams are realistic and win because they make smart picks; bad teams stay bad because they don't recognize what they need and who can fill that need." A two-time Super Bowl MVP, quarterback Tom Brady was the 199th overall pick in 2000; wideout David Givens, who is now with the Tennessee Titans and has had a touchdown reception in seven straight playoff games, went 253rd in 2002.

See: New York Jets

6. "You have to control the ball."

A sacred belief of coaches is that controlling the ball, as reflected in time of possession, is a key to victory. But there's no strong correlation between ball control and winning. Yes, the 13-3 Denver Broncos led the league last season with 32:37, but 6-10 Dallas Cowboys were a close No. 2 at 32:58. The champion Steelers were ninth in TOP, 31:16, while the No. 10 Titans (31:13) were a dismal 4-12.

7. "Dome teams have the advantage."

Because some indoor teams, such as the Colts, have high-powered offenses, the myth has developed that domers have a "fast track" to the playoffs. Some domers do profit from playing under a roof. But as Kerry Byrne of the cutting-edge analytical Web site Cold Hard Football Facts notes: "In the history of the NFL, dome teams are 15-45 on the road in postseason play. And the best dome teams don't even do all that well at home in the playoffs -- like the Colts, who were heavily favored at home against the Steelers in the AFC divisional playoff last year and got stuffed."

Ouch....apparently he doesn't like the Colts either (that's okay...neither do I)

8. "The pass sets up the run."

You hear this one a lot. It's true that a team with a good passer will get a lot of rushing yards, but only because the passer will get more first downs, which in turn creates more rushing opportunities. Having a good quarterback doesn't mean you'll run the ball better, just more often. Last season the Steelers led the league in yards per pass, 8.2, and were just an average running team at 4.0.

9. "Pass completion percentage is a key stat."

No, not a key stat. In fact, not particularly important at all. No one, of course, wants to throw an incomplete pass. The point isn't how many passes you complete, but how far downfield the passes go. Put it this way: Would you rather complete three of three passes for nine yards or one of three passes for 10? Of the top five passers in the NFC last year in pass-completion percentage, only one, Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck, played for a winning team (the Seahawks went to the Super Bowl). The other four played for teams that finished a combined 24-40.

Only mistake I found in this article. The top five who were actually starters in the regular season were Palmer (67.8%), P. Manning (67.3%), Bulger (66.9%, 8 games), Hasselbeckk (65.5%), and Brees (64.6%).......I'm pretty sure everyone but Bulger played on a winning team

10. "This is the age of the running quarterback."

We've been hearing this for the past few seasons, particularly when the Falcons, with their great running quarterback, Michael Vick, are on TV. But there is no proof that having a great runner at the quarterback spot guarantees a winning team. In 2005, the Falcons lead the league in both rushing yardage and yards per run and still finished just 8-8. They won't get any better until Mr. Vick improves his TD-passes-to-interceptions ratio (15-13 last year).

I don't really think you hear people say this. I thought it was that the "Running (Black QB) Never wins the Big Game". (Which ultimately I think is true...not because they are black, but because the Coach/Owner thinks they can carry an entire team by themselves. See: McNair, McNabb)

Overall that was a pretty good piece, and you are guaranteed to hear those phrases ad nauseum this year. Keep your ears peeled and use these stats to impress your friends.

DR. BOB MANTOOTH’S 2006 NFL PREVIEW

There has always been a cult of military glory made up of pencil-necked geeks and retired officers angry about how the “damn civiliansâ€� sold them out. Numerous disturbingly homoerotic odes have been written about Alexander, Caesar, Napoleon and Ike to name a few. These hagiographies impute some type of godlike intelligence to their hero that made him better/smarter/stronger than his adversaries and led to the crappy movies we had to put up with in the 50s and 60s. The reality, of course, is that chance most often decides battles and the best generals are the ones that stay in their shoes long enough to let the other guy fuck up first and pounce on that mistake â€" sort of like the New Jersey Devils neutral zone trap.

Why do I go here? Because most generals are far from the forward-thinking paragons of virtue their biographers make them out to be. Most generals are busy fighting the last war rather than preparing for the next one, which is why the one guy who actually figures out what is sitting in front of his face is the one that gets all the run in the history books. God forbid anyone would think that the rifled musket, the Maxim gun or the tank and airplane would change anything. So with generals, also with those who make predictions about the upcoming NFL season. Even the Doctor was seduced into picking the Eagles vs. the Patriots in the title game last year. That’s what happens when you read too much into the past and not what is in front of your face â€" namely, the decay of the NE secondary and underestimating the incredible potential for destruction of Terrell Owens. I sent my cavalry charging right into the panzers and I got what I deserved, but this year is different. How? Read on…

AFC East

NE: 11-5
MIA: 10-6
BUF: 5-11
NYJ: 4-12

This division is like Central America (or Texas) â€" a big-ass rift between the upper class and the lower class. First off, the Bills and Jets are going to be awful. Buffalo has recycled Dick Jaron and must choose between JP Losman and Kelly Holcombe at QB, a move that will kill the fantasy value of Willis McGahee. Even if their D returns to form, you can’t win if you don’t ever score. The Jets are so bad they traded for Kevan Barlow â€" yes, when you are taking the 49ers’ problems the writing is on the wall. Eric Fatgini is more concerned with building a Belichick-like Cone of Silence around the facility, even going so far as to release a depth chart in alphabetical order. 1969 was a long time ago.

Meanwhile, the Pats and Dolphins will fight for the division title. Now, I know I have NE at 11-5, but it’s a soft 11 wins driven more by a weak schedule than actual merit, just like Jacksonville last year. The offense will be good if Deon Branch ever gets signed, but the defense won’t be tough enough and the loss of Adam Vinatieri will be exposed as a fatal flaw in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Miami is a trendy pick and, as such, I generally try to stay away. But Daunte Culpepper has looked good and this team is ready to make a move into the playoffs this year. As long as Joey “The Pianist� Harrington doesn’t end up taking too many snaps and as long as the line opens holes for Ronnie Brown, I like the Fins to take a wildcard spot.

AFC North

CIN: 11-5
PIT: 10-6
BLT: 9-7
CLE : 4-12

The poor Browns play in the wrong division â€" they might be able to win the NFC North, but not in the AFC. Too many injuries, too much bad karma, not enough playmakers to win games. I love Joe Jurevicius, but not as a number one receiver and Sergeant Winslow and Braylon Edwards are all hype until proven otherwise. When you lose your top free agent signing on the first day of training camp, it’s all downhill from there.

That leaves the big three of the Bengals, Steelers and Ravens to fight it out for first and I lean toward the striped-orange penitentiary that sits across the Ohio from Covington, Kentucky because I think Carson Palmer is back. I think Carson is back and that he’s going to kick ass and their offense will be enough to drag a soft, overrated defense to the division title and a playoff win. Character matters, but winning hides the cracks until they split wide open in an ugly division round loss at Indy.

I may be buying too much of the Steve McNair hype but I think the Ravens are better than they showed last season when the decidedly mediocre Kyle Boller “ran� the offense. I see this aging team overachieving during the early part of the season and being the surprise darling of all the talk shows with a 7-2 mark. Then McNair gets dinged, the schedule gets tougher and they collapse to 9-7. The Steelers, meanwhile, deal with a Super Bowl hangover but still make the playoffs, losing the division on the final weekend at Cincy. This assumes that Big Ben actually has someone to throw to besides Hines Ward and that someone can replicate the Bus’s short-yardage success.

AFC South

IND: 12-4
JAX: 8-8
TEN: 4-12
HOU: 4-12

Peyton and the midgets make up the South and Indy will once more cruise to a division title. The loss of some key defensive components and the Edge will put more of the burden back onto Manning and he will open up the offense and let it fly like it was 2004 again. Circle Monday, December 18 on your calendar when the Bengals come to the RCADome for an old-time AFL-style shootout. Last year, these teams combined for 82 points in a 45-37 Colts win.

The Jaguars were frauds last year and they will do a little statistical dance called “regressing to the norm� in 2006. There is no Charmin-soft schedule to catapult them to a phony 12-4 record tonight, although they will finally beat the Colts. The Texans and Titans are rebuilding and neither figure to win more than 4 games. The question is whether or not Jeff Fisher can stomach rebuilding, especially after a year of watching Kerry Collins keep the seat warm for Vince Young. At least the Texans are finally building toward something and their use of the Denver zone blocking system will allow them to be effective with less than optimal talent on their line. I probably am underrating them and they might win a few more games, but the wreckage of the Casserly/Capers regime is too great to sweep out in one year.

AFC West

DEN: 12-4
KC: 10-6
SD: 10-6
OAK: 6-10

First, the Raiders can win all their preseason games, but that doesn’t mean jack when they start using live ammo in the regular season. Their offensive coordinator hasn’t been in the league for over ten years and their starting QB is Martin Lawrence â€" I mean Aaron Brooks and they just signed that cancerous fossil Jeff George. This team has Al Davis’s fingerprints all over it which means more losses to hated foes in Denver and KC and another last place finish.

Denver 12-4? Homer? Maybe, but if Javon Walker returns to form the offense is going to be scary and all the youngsters on defense will have another year under their belts. Denver stuffed the run last year, but had to blitz like madmen to get any pressure on the QB. If the front four can achieve a pass rush on its own, Denver will be the team to beat â€" unless the Snake cuts anyone else off in his Honda Element.

Kansas City and San Diego will fall just short, losing playoff tie-breakers to the Steelers and Dolphins. For the Chiefs, it will be another painfully close finish as the window of opportunity continues to slide shut. The defense will improve, but the offense will slide back under Herman Edwards â€" dude is too conservative and he just can’t help himself. Remember, this is the guy who hired a coach to help him with time management and still fucked up the clock at the end of games. He is the fraternal twin of Marty Schottenheimer, another guy who knows what it is like to come up short in the big game. Both badly bungled potential game-winning FG attempts in overtime in the 2004 playoffs and both are forever doomed to hideous postseason losses. At least the convoluted tie-breaker system will save them from that pain this year.

NFC East

DAL: 12-4
NYG: 11-5
PHL: 8-8
WAS: 6-10

Have I drunk the Cowboy Kool-aid? Did I get washed away by the millions of gallons of water used monthly to keep Jerrah’s estate lush and green? Do I really think TO can keep himself in line enough to contribute? Yes, I do. See, TO had a chance to blow things sky high after being fined, but he sort of owned it (or as much as he’s ever going to own anything) and the storm seemed to blow over. Dallas is good, haters, and you’re going to get real sick of seeing them on the TV. The big key is whether or not the offense will be as dynamic as everyone thinks, whether the line can open up holes for the running game and whether they can keep Drew Bledsoe healthy. The defense is going to be good, maybe great.

There is going to be a tough race between America’s Team and the denizens of Stalag 17, the NY Giants. I didn’t think I would rank the G-men this high, but after breaking down their schedule, I think they’ll have a good year. The problem is that no matter how good they are in the regular season, they have to prove they aren’t the gutless chokers who were rolled 23-0 by the Panthers in the playoffs.

Every year there is some team that takes the leap and some other team that comes back to the pack. The Cowboys are making the leap and the Eagles and the Redskins are going to regress. Philly will be better than last season’s collapse, but when your best back/receiver is the injury-prone Brian Westbrook, you are asking for trouble. Will chronic underachiever Dontae Stallworth be able to fill TOs shoes? Hell, can he fill Todd Stinkston’s? The Redskins are headed for a big-time fall. Mark Brunell is showing his age and if anything happens to him, the cupboard is bare. Clinton Portis is hurt and the team is saying he’ll be back soon, but then they made a trade for TJ Duckett so what does that mean? It means 6-10 and Joe Gibbs returning to NASCAR.

NFC North

MIN: 9-7
CHI: 8-8
DET: 6-10
GB: 6-10

The exact opposite of the AFC North, this is the fountain of mediocrity. The Vikings will win because someone has to and because the Bears will come up empty due to poor quarterback play. Of course, if Brad Johnson goes down, Minnesota could finish 6-10. The Bears will see-saw between Rex Grossman and Brian Griese and neither will bring back memories of Sid Luckman. Shit, Luckman is better than either of those stiffs and he’s been dead for seven years.
6-10 is the fate of both the Lions and Packers. In Detroit’s case, I just can’t buy that Mike Martz will suddenly make the offense into the Greatest Show on Field Turf. I don’t see Kevin Jones as Marshall Faulk and when a guy like Eddie Drummond is better than two of the three receivers your spent #1 picks on, we aren’t talking 30 ppg here. But at least it looks like the Lions might be building something here and they could use 2006 as a springboard to a division title in 2007.

As far as the Packers and the possibility of a fairy tale ending for Brett Favre? Well, I think the Long Night is coming, Cheeseheads. Welcome to the Bart Starr/Forrest Gregg era all over again. I have them at 6-10 and while it isn’t a huge jump to an 8-8 record and a shot at a weak division, have you seen them play this year? I mean, have you seen them? I thought their opening night dog show against the Chargers was bad, but they just plain laid down to the Bengals. I know Cincy is good, but this was Carson Palmer’s first live action of the preseason and he cut them to bits. I think the highlight of the year will be an upset of the hated Vikings on a Thursday night in December in Favre’s last game at Lambeau, then, as the Mme. Pompadour said, Apres moi, le deluge.

NFC South

CAR: 12-4
ATL: 9-7
TB: 7-9
NO: 4-12

Beware the Panthers, tarred with the steroid brush and favored by Sports Illustrated to go to the Super Bowl. I hate trendy picks, but this team made it within a game of the Bowl last year on Steve Smith, Jake Delhomme and guts. What will it do with everyone healthy? With Keyshawn Johnson to take the pressure off of Smith and D’Angelo Williams to back up Deshaun Foster creating an effective running game? I think this team will go to the NFC Title Game at home, but the problem is that Bank of America Stadium is not a particularly tough venue to play in and that a team with a star on their helmet with shock the Panthers.

The Falcons will continue to sputter after their magical 2004 season, particular behind the inaccuracy of Michael Vick and the season-ending injury to Brian Finneran. Trading for Ashley Lelie give the team just another underachieving wideout who can’t catch the ball in traffic, forcing Vick to look Algae Crumpler’s way most of the time. Still, 9-7 is good enough for a Wildcard berth in the JV conference.

Tampa QB Chris Simms has another man’s initials tattooed on his ankle. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but it seems to bode ill down there in the Bible Belt. What also bodes ill is an ageing defense that doesn’t intimidate like it used to and a QB that disappears in the biggest games. Baylor and Rice are not on the Tampa schedule.

The feel good story of the year will be the Saints upsetting Atlanta in the first game back in the Superdome on September 25. Unfortunately, the Saints are still the same team that collapsed last year and while Drew Brees is an upgrade over Aaron Brooks, the only guy to throw to is an aging Joe Horn and the defense is just as bad is it was in 2005. If Reggie Bush is as electric as he is supposed to be, the Saints may eke out a few more wins, but it’s going to be yet another rebuilding year on the Bayou.

NFC West

SEA : 10-6
ARZ: 9-7
STL: 6-10
SF: 2-14

Seattle will repeat in a weak division, but their magical run of 2005 will be just a memory. The Seahawks will miss Joe Jurevicius, seeing as how he was the only one of their receivers who could actually catch the ball. In spite of their NFC title, the Hawks still have a rep for being soft and throwing up at the worst times. Having to play the tough AFC West will bring down their overall record and, although they will hold off the Cardinals, the road to Miami will not go through the Pacific Northwest this year.

I want to believe in the Cardinals, in a resurgent Kurt Warner flinging the ball all over the place to two great receivers and the Edge running for 1500 yards. About how they can take advantage of the Woeful West and make a playoff run. I want to do this, but they can’t run the fucking ball! If you can’t run a little bit, you can’t win and the Arizona running game went nowhere against Denver’s 2nd string defense. The Broncos started their second string against the Cardinals’ first string and were leading 9-6 after two series. It isn’t good when your first team doesn’t dominate the other sides’ second team. I think the best case scenario is 9-7 and losing the tie-breaker to the Falcons.

The Greatest Show on Turf is a dim memory and the Rams need to rebuild, while the 49ers are just bad. Awful. The Alex Smith debacle will haunt this franchise for years. The Rams should rebuild but they still have the last vestiges of those great teams hanging around and they will kid themselves that they aren’t that far away. They are.

The Playoffs

Wildcard Round (Home team in CAPS)

AFC

CINCINATI over Miami
Pittsburgh over NEW ENGLAND

Here is where the paucity of the NE schedule haunts the Patriots, when the defending champions come calling and Adam Vinatieri is in Indy. The Belichick â€" Brady playoff mystique died in Denver last January and the Steelers will get their long-awaited revenge. Meanwhile, Cincinnati will build on last year’s playoff experience by easing past Miami in a game where Carson Palmer does not wreck his knee.

NFC

SEATTLE over Atlanta
New York Giants over MINNESOTA

The favored Giants will roll the Vikings and Seattle’s home field advantage will let them dominate the Falcons. Then the questions about whether or not Michael Vick can be a successful NFL quarterback will continue all off-season.

Divisional Round

AFC

INDIANAPOLIS over Cincinnati
DENVER over Pittsburgh

The Bengals are a good young team, but they can’t beat the Colts in the Dome and when the going gets tough, the turds start to jack up the plumbing. After being scorched by Peyton Manning for 4 first half TDs, the Bengals will spontaneously combust in the locker room at halftime like they did against the Steelers last year.

The Steelers came into Denver and kicked the Broncos to the curb in last year’s Championship game. But Pittsburgh was a team on a mission and Big Ben was lights out on third down, things that probably won’t happen again. Bill Cowher will remember he’s Bill Cowher and revert to form by bungling a big game in a close loss.

NFC

DALLAS over Seattle
CAROLINA over NY Giants

The Seahawks on the road are a very different team and once more a Super Bowl loser will not make it back. The Giants will make a lot of noise about revenge and then Eli will go 17-37 with 3 INTs and the Panthers will win big.

AFC Championship

DENVER over Indianapolis

It’s in Denver, it’s on grass and it’s a title game, so it’s lights out for Peyton. Although the Colts shredded Denver’s secondary in past, they used the threat of Edgerrin James to gash the Broncos if they dropped too many guys in coverage. The Edge is gone and here is where it will cost the Colts. Rhodes and Addai won’t be able to run on the Denver D and it’s bad news when any team is one dimensional â€" even if that dimension is pretty good.

NFC Championship

Dallas over CAROLINA

Here is the Tuna’s farewell performance, an upset over media darling Carolina in the big game. Why? Because it just feels right.

Super Bowl XLI

God help me, Super Bowl XII redux because Dallas’s defense is just a bit better…

Dr. Bob Mantooth is a Denver based free lance writer and security consultant who offers his insight on sports and society to the Station on a weekly basis. So it's Denver again in the championship huh? I am still traumatized over the ugly experience that I had to endure courtesy of the doctor and his goon bodyguard during last years tank job against the Steelers. That story is yet to come out here but will be as ugly as you can imagine when it does.