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Inevitably, young talent intrigues Roto-rooters... especially when it comes to Fantasy Football. NFL Rookies thrill, NFL rookies inspire visions of league trophies, and ultimately... most NFL rookies tease.
Last year, we couldn't wait to see how Buccs' Alex Smith and Carnell Williams, Dolphin Ronnie Brown, Bear Cedric Benson, Viking Troy Williamson, Falc' Roddy White, Raven Mark Clayton, and Steeler Heath Miller would change the fantasy landscape. Of that group, who made the largest fantasy footprint? Right, Caddy' and Ronnie, though TE Heath Miller enjoyed a very nice, but quiet, 459/6 season.
And last season was no exception. The learning curve for Quarterbacks is ridiculous, and Wide Receivers, for the most part, don't really blossom until that magical 3rd year. Route running's a b*tch, and the speed of the game takes everyone by surprise. Of course, Individual Defensive Players such as Shawne Merriman, DeMarcus Ware, and Derrick Johnson can alter a leagues' outcome... but of the skill positions? With the rarest of exceptions, and I think Ben Roethlisberger's miraculous '04 run underscores this point in emphatic fashion, even winning QBs post marginal fantasy numbers. S'all about the Running Backs, people.
The dust from the 2006 draft has settled and the first tentative pre-season tilts are in the books, it's time to guage... FANTASY'S IMPACT ROOKIES!
QUARTERBACKS: Last season, both Alex Smith (49'ers) and Aaron Rodgers (Packers) were 1st round selections. This season? it's likely that neither would've been taken before the 3rd round. While Smith was handed the keys to Frisco's offense, his 1 TD, 11 INT season did little to inspire confidence. Rodgers attempted just 16 passes as a rook, good for 65 yards and a pick.
This year, however, the QB crop was far more robust. At least 3 of the draft's Signal Callers, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, and Vince Young, will assume the position within a year or 2, and another 2, Kellen Clemens (Jets) and Tarvaris Jackson (Vikings) could surprise and see early action as well. Of that group, only...
Cardinals, Matt Leinart: ...Looks to be an impact rookie. Card' incumbent Kurt Warner hasn't played a full 16 game complement since the 2001 season, and the likliehood of that changing ranges from slim to none. Warner, possessing the durability of a Calcium-deficient septugenarian, WILL fall to injury behind a somewhat suspect Offensive Line... it's just a matter of when (my over/under is Week 6). Although coach and resident numbskull Denny Green has shown a chubby for 3rd year Michigan product John Navarre, Leinart finally inked his deal and should be up to speed in time to step over Warner's prostrate form and jam hands under 6-4/320 Center Alex Stepanovich's refrigerator-sized backside.
With RB Edgerrin James picking up the blitz, keeping defenders back on their heels, and serving as an excellent safety-valve receiver, WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin keeping the Safety's head on a swivel, and mammoth ("how mammoth is he?" 6-8/268 kinda' mammoth!) TE Leonard Pope at his disposal... NO Quarterback has more weapons at hand. The primary concern is the iffy O-Line. Those in deeper leagues should consider Leinart a late-mid to late round pick, those of you belonging to 6-8 team leagues may wish to wait for Kurt to hurt before making a 'Wire move.
Broncos, Jay Cutler: Numerous league observers believe that Jake Plummer is entering his final season as a Bronco. Although last season was a good one by anyone's standards (3,366/20/7), Plummer's numerous biskit'-head moves (both on and off the field), oft-erratic play, and porn-star mustache ('kay, maybe not the circa '73 'stache, but for the most part "Snake" has not delivered on his vast potential) exhausted coach Mike Shanahan's patience and Vandy' dandy Jay Cutler, whose meteoric pre-draft rise was remarkable, was too talented a prospect to pass upon.
Just as San Diego did this past off-season with Drew Brees, the Broncs' will cut bait. Denver will part ways with an older Plummer and turn the O over to a younger Cutler. And speaking of whom; Cutler's first NFL action came against the Lions and was a ringing, 16-22, 192/1 success!
Now, do I hear Plummer to the NY Jets, anyone? Remember, you read it here first!
Other Potential Contributors:
Titans, Vince Young: Young is a rare athlete; a confluence of speed, strength, grace and power. Yada-yada-yada. Young's Signal Calling skills are virtually Junior Varsity. Is he gifted? Absolutely. Can he chuck the ball and make plays? Darn' tootin'. However, Vince Young is a slab of marble awaiting the sculpter's touch. Mastering the 3 and 5-step drop, learning how to really read a defense as opposed to taking-off and fleeing the pocket at the first sign of trouble, and honing his curious mechanics; the concern is that Young's side-arm style will lead to his passes being batted down at the line of scrimmage, Young is at least a full season and another off-season away from being ready to grab hold the huddle.
Jets, Kellen Clemens: With Pennington throwing like a girl (SO politically uncorrect... but would "sissy" be any better?), Patrick Ramsey unspectacular at best, and Brooks Bollinger struggling to make the team... Mangini's 'back strapped Jet team just might turn to Clemens in order to see what he can do.
Vikings, Tarvaris Jackson: I don't think Minnesota's arsenal is particularly impressive, especially with WR Koren Robinson lost for the year, if not longer, due to a battery of infractions. However, the club fields an aging veteran in Brad Johnson and a pair of ho-hums in Mike McMahon and J.T. O'Sullivan. It could be that Jackson, whose mobility and arm strength hearken back to a younger Daunte Culpepper, gets the nod should Johnson miss any appreciable time.
RUNNING BACKS: These guys butter your fantasy bread. Running Backs will accrue the bulk of your weekly fantasy points, therefore it's wise to seek the top backs first. Several youngsters are highly regarded... but none are locks, as Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown were last season. Even though it was understood that Brown and Ricky would share Miami's load... Brown's pre-fantasy draft dap' was considerable and the same was true for Cadillac Williams. This year...
Saints, Reggie Bush: A 5/11/205 gazelle. Bush may just live up to his considerable hype. I'm no fan of hyperbole... but holy smokes! Fast? Picture Olympic medalist Carl Lewis with a pork-chop stapled to his as*, being chased by a pack of Rottweilers. Bush's game speed is that fast. Moves? Dude has more moves than a veteran Vegas Call Girl.
With physical Deuce McAllister still in the new 'Awlins fold the team need not throw the USC alum' to the wolves, and indeed, the coaching staff says they'll run both out onto the field... simultaneously. If that can work, more power to the Saints. I'm of the belief that Deuce wants to shake loose and play elsewhere, but the club's unconvinced that Reggie can shoulder a 22-25 touch load (each week) and is therefore understandably reluctant to move their former feature. That said, Reggie's frame is such that he'll be able to pack-on another 10-15 pounds of muscle which will enable him to better endure NFL-style punishment. Further bolstering Bush's already impressive value is his versatility; Reggie will catch passes out of the backfield, line-up in the slot, and return punts and Kick-offs.
In early drafts and "expert leagues" Saint Reggie was being taken as early as 15th (in 10-12 team leagues). So long as he's able to withstand a 16 game slate... his owners should reap the rewards of a 1,300+/8+ (combined yards and scores) campaign.
Titans, LenDale White: The Titans rushing attack is a fascinating study in confusion. Chris Brown, the clubs' lead back since '04, has rolled for 2,300+ total yards and 13 scores over that span, but he's been dogged by injury and is unhappy with his current situation. A 5-9/215 Travis Henry was brought over from the Bills as insurance against Brown's injury-checkered past and is determined to secure the feature back title, but although his determination is unquestionable and the spirit is willing... his body's 3 yards and a cloud of dust. which brings us, naturally, to Reggie Bush's college bud, LenDale White.
A big (6-1/235) back, White's a horror-show to tackle once he's got a head of steam going... but his size could also work against him. Struggling to keep his weight in check is one thing, a nagging toe-injury is another, and White was in streets' the another night for precisely that reason. Still, with the incomparable Billy Volek over Center and the club trotting-out a markedly UN-impressive receiving corps, Tennessee could go run-heavy this year. Which again brings us back to White. Brown will probably continue to astound team Doctors by being the first glass-man, Henry will likely be slotted as the short-yardage/3rd Down back, and a healthy LenDale White could be given a considerable work-load; 12-15 totes per game will render him a sneaky-good 6-7th round draft pick.
Panthers, DeAngelo Williams: Williams is one of those players whose timed speed and game speed differ substantially. Faster than a Cheetah with a Baboon jockey (is that not a vivid image?), Williams' burst and superior on-field vision convinced the Cats' to expend their 27th overall pick on him. Don't let the club sell you a bill of goods, they also have little faith in DeShaun Foster's (what is it with backs whose names feature 2 capital letters? I'm thinking of changing my name to JaMey... lemme' know what you think) ability to make it through a full season. The '02 2nd round pick has had 2 of his past 3 seasons abbreviated by injury, and last season's 2nd round pick, RB Eric Shelton, has been a big hairy disappointment.
While Williams is admittedly starting off a bit slow (3 carries for no yards), he did rip-off a 20 yard run against Buffalo in his first pre-season action. The run was a virtual D-Will' Power-Point presentation; cut-backs, vision, burst and finishing the run. With DeShaun Foster almost sure to falter, DeAngelo will make for a fine #3/"Flex" Running Back come week 7 or so.
Patriots, Laurence Maroney: Maroney's no joke. New England's brilliant coach, Bill Belichik, saw that veteran Corey Dillon's game fell-off considerably last season. And, unlike... say, the Jets, the Pats will NOT be caught flat-footed!
A 6-0/215 physical specimen, the former Minnesota Golden Gopher's got eye-blink speed (4.45 40) and Charles Atlas power.
Not as safe a bet as the aforementioned trio due to the Patriot offensive system and the presence of a still-effective Corey Dillon (especially around the Money Stripe), Maroney will nevertheless pilfer carries and could rapidly turn into a #2-ish fantasy back should the unthinkable occur... an illin' Dillon. Those of you who belong to "Dynasty" leagues may wish to take a gamble on Maroney and stash him away. Once Dillon calls it quits, 'cause I don't think he's going elsewhere once the Pats' kick him to the curb, Maroney's value will skyrocket.
Colts, Joseph Addai: There have been a number of juggernaut offenses in recent years; The Rams "Greatest Show on Turf," Minnesota's "Culpepper to Moss" connection, and the Chargers' dynamic duo of Gates and L.T.
But NO team has ever moved the ball with greater ease and impunity... NO team has ever looked upon opposing defenses with as much scorn and disdain as Peyton Manning and friends. Manning will go down as one of the greatest passers of all time, particularly of he can escort his club to the SuperBowl, and Marvelous Marvin Harrison is a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. But what made this offense run like a well-oiled machine? Edgerrin James. The Colts "verve and swerve" stems from the play-action, and the every down danger Edge' represented forced teams to respect it... even when they knew it was coming.
With Manning awarded a king's ransom to remain a Colt and Harrison receiving his own Lotto-style contract (and deservedly so, no pass catcher goes about his work in a more professional manner), the team pulled its pockets inside-out and came up with? lint. Will the contracts given to 2 of the 3 triplets (big bucks were disseminated on the defensive side of the ball as well) short-circuit the system? Probably not, but while rookie Joseph Addai has been called a "James clone" caution is in order.
Addai and Dominic Rhodes are slated to split the load, but the 5-11/215 former LSU star has been picking up the offense in rapid fashion and based on upside alone, is more valuable than the older Rhodes. Addai can pluck the ball out of the air, pick up blitzing 'Backers like a champ, and kick-it into high gear within a step or two. Indeed, teammates have raved about the rooks' ability to blow through the line at top speed.
Addai is a mid-rounder. While the team will probably be a passing circus, the youngster could end up with a much bigger role than originally anticipated... and his upside is considerable.
TOMORROW... IT'S PASS CATCHERS AND IDP'ERS!
Editor's note: This will most likely become a Friday morning tradition during football season. However, I'm working Thursday night this week, so I'll go ahead and pop my predictions up today.
NFL
Miami at Pittsburgh -- I really like both of these teams, although I'm starting to think Roethlisberger is cursed this year. Nick Saban has the Dolphins poised for a deep playoff run, and Daunte Culpepper looks healthy and fit. I like the Dolphins in this one. Final: 26-14
Atlanta at Carolina -- I like the Panthers, but not as much as everyone else does. And it's an up year for the Falcons, who alternate winning and losing seasons like Paris Hilton alternates favorite pets. The absence of Steve Smith is a major blow for Jake Delhomme and the Panthers' offense. Is Mike Vick finally poised for a breakout year? We'll see, but he'll get off to a good start. Final: 23-16
Baltimore at Tampa Bay -- Are there any teams I don't like? Yes, but these two don't fit that bill. The addition of Steve McNair gives the Ravens a stable, poised leader at QB to take pressure off Jamal Lewis and the defense. Tampa can only get better, as Chris Simms and Cadillac Williams get more experience and become more comfortable. I also like Michael Clayton to have a huge year, going back to the Pro Bowl. Both teams have great defenses, but on this day, Baltimore's will be slightly better. Final: 17-13
Cincinnati at Kansas City -- Man, did the NFL do a good job with the Week 1 matchups or what? The league's two young stars -- Bengals QB Carson Palmer and Chiefs RB Larry Johnson -- squaring off in Week 1. The Chiefs have some major question marks -- the retirement of Willie Roaf, as well as the departure of Johnson's lead blocker at fullback. Plus, the addition of Herm Edwards as head coach, who I like as a person, but question as a head coach in this league. Palmer to Chad Johnson is the premier pass-and-catch duo in the league. Rudi Johnson is a workhorse back. And the Bengals' defense is much improved. I like Cincy to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Final: 38-20
Denver at St. Louis -- Finally, a home team is victorious! Scott Linehan starts off his career with a win. Can the Rams once again become The Greatest Show on Turf? There are plenty of weapons at QB Marc Bulger's disposal, particularly with the coming of age of RB Stephen Jackson, coupled with Linehan's penchant for the run (unlike previous head coach Mike Martz' disdain for it). There are a lot of uncertainties in Denver. Once again, an unsettled backfield. Can the Broncos again piecemeal a 1,000-yard rusher. Will Jake Plummer have a career year again -- or implode like normal? Who are his weapons at WR? Mike Shanahan is a great coach, but I'm not sold on the Broncos as a playoff team yet. Final: 27-18
New Orleans at Cleveland -- Call it a homer pick. I like this New Orleans offense. Drew Brees is not a star, but he's a solid upgrade over Aaron Brooks. Deuce and Reggie Bush provide a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield, and Bush is going to make some major plays. Joe Horn is back and healthy as the No. 1 receiver, while Devery Henderson is set for a Donte' Stallworth-like year this year. But the defense scares me. A lot. There's no way the Saints are a playoff team with this defense. But Cleveland is horrible. Horrible. Rueben Droughns might be the worst starting RB in the league. Charlie Frye would be a third-stringer at some places. I do think Winslow, if he's healthy, upgrades the offense -- as will the improvement of Braylon Edwards at WR. I like Romeo Crennel, and the move to bring in the veteran leadership of Willie McGinest on defense. The Browns are making strides. But they're still a ways off. Final: 28-24
NY Jets at Tennessee -- Bad news for both of these teams. They're bad. The Jets, outside of the Texans, are the worst team in the league. And the Titans might not be much better. I have a feeling Jeff Fisher is done in Nashville, while it's not the way Eric Mangini wanted to start his career. There's not much to like about either of these teams -- no star power whatsoever. Major questions at QB -- can Pennington be healthy? Who starts for the Titans? More questions at RB -- like who gets the carries for both of these teams? This game could get real ugly. Final: 15-9
Philadelphia at Houston -- I like the makeup of this Eagles team. The chemistry issues are gone, and the talent is still there that went to the NFC title game year after year. I really think they will end up back in the championship game, and maybe even the Super Bowl. As for the Texans, well it just gets worse and worse for David Carr. The front office passed up a chance to get a supserstar in Reggie Bush, and instead will start fellow rookie Wali Lundy at running back. That's all I need to know about the direction of this team. Final: 38-10
Seattle at Detroit -- My upset special of the week. Seattle is the defending Super Bowl runner-up, and no runner-up has won more than 7 games the next year in the 21st century. Throw in the Madden curse for Shaun Alexander, and it could be a long year for the Seahawks. And I like the Lions. They aren't a playoff team yet, but I like the addition of Jon Kitna at QB. He's not flashy, but he's solid. He's not going to make the mistakes Joey Harrington did. I think this Lions team can win 7 or 8 games this year, which is a major step towards getting back to the playoffs. Final: 20-14
Chicago at Green Bay -- It's time for Brett Favre to just shut up and play -- or go away. His comment about this team having the most talent he's played with was just ridiculous. This is going to be a bad Packers team. And while the Bears' offense will still not be flashy, due to not having a major playmaker outside, if Grossman or Griese or Orton or whoever else can be consistent and not make mistakes, this defense will win at least 10 games. Thomas Jones will be a 1,500-yard rusher, and the Bears might give up less than 10 points a game. Final: 20-6
Dallas at Jacksonville -- I actually like this Dallas team early on, but we all know a TO blow up is inevitable at some point. The Cowboys, even without him, do have a ton of talent. It's just a matter of how much he screws up the locker room. With that said, Jacksonville is one of my favorite teams this year. I love Leftwich if he can stay healthy. And he's got plenty of talent around him. They have a legitimate chance to compete with the AFC powers this year. Final: 27-24
San Francisco at Arizona -- I think we'll see a little bit of improvement in San Fran this year -- maybe 5 wins. But they still are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Arizona, on the other hand, has one of the best teams on paper -- 2 1,000-yard receivers, a major weapon at running back, and 2 QBs that can run an offense. I like this Cardinals team as a sleeper pick for the NFC championship game. Final: 39-17
Indianapolis at NY Giants -- Little brother gets the best of older brother. Peyton outshines Eli stat-wise, but this game will be won on the ground. Tiki has a big game with more than 100 yards and a couple of TDs, while the combo of Dominic Rhodes and Joe Addai will struggle against the Giants' defensive front. This is going to be a great game for NBC's primetime coverage. Final: 27-23
Minnesota at Washington -- I don't like either of these teams. Washington will be a major disappointment this year. I don't see more than 6 wins, while some are expecting them to win that tough East division. I see the 'Skins as the worst team in that division. Minnesota, meanwhile, is changing the culture under new head coach Brad Childress. Some have picked them as the division favorite in the North, but I don't see them beating the Bears. They could get to 8 or maybe 9 wins and make a push for the playoffs. Final: 19-12
San Diego at Oakland -- Is Phil Rivers ready? I really don't know. I do know Antonio Gates and LT will take a lot of pressure off him early. When you have a versatile RB who can catch balls out of the backfield and a huge target at TE, it makes it easy for a QB to get in a rhythm early. Oakland is going to be very interesting. Aaron Brooks might be the worst QB in the league. He's got a big arm, and he'll hook up with Randy Moss for some points. But he'll also make some huge mistakes that end up burying the Raiders. Final: 28-17
College Football
1. Ohio State at Texas -- Does it get any better than this? 1 vs 2. Doesn't happen very often in the regular season. Last year, UT's comeback win over OSU propelled the Horns to the national title. Will the tables turn this year? It's likely. While I'm hesitant to label Troy Smith this year's Vince Young, he could use his performance in last year's bowl game to propel him to a huge year -- just like VY did the Rose Bowl 2 years ago. I think Teddy Ginn Jr. is the best player in the game, and I'm not sold on Colt McCoy being able to play in this big of a game this early in his career. Final: 28-21
2. Texas vs. Ohio State -- See above.
3. USC (Open) -- Next week vs. Nebraska.
4. Notre Dame vs. Penn State -- It's funny how one game can change everything. Notre Dame's near-loss to Georgia Tech dropped the Irish in the eyes of some of the national media. And it refocused the Irish that they really aren't as good as the media made them out to be. I liked Penn State in this game until the scare last week. Now the Irish will come up with a close, close win. Final: 24-23
5. Auburn at Mississippi State -- Poor Sly Croom. Wasn't this year supposed to get better in Starkville. Open the year with a 15-0 loss to South Carolina. And it only gets worse against Auburn. Kenny Irons is poised for a big, big game. Final: 27-0
6. West Virginia vs. Eastern Washington -- Rich Rodriguez: Can you please upgrade your non-conference schedule? The Big East already is weak. You need to bulk up the schedule. That's all I ask. Final: 56-10
7. Florida vs. UCF -- The Gators started off slow last week before turning it on. Is that a sign they are starting to click, or a sign the offense still isn't that good? I believe Chris Leak will get more and more comfortable in this offense, and as the season goes along, the Gators will emerge as a legit national title contender. Final: 42-17
8. LSU vs. Arizona -- I like this game a lot. Could be the game of the week -- even with Texas/OSU and ND/PSU. The Tigers have as much talent as anyone in the country, and the Wildcats are one of the up-and-coming teams under Mike Stoops. I really believe this is the year they put everything together. LSU gets a major scare but comes out with the win. Final: 28-27
9. Florida State vs. Troy -- The Seminoles are coming off a close, tough victory over rival Miami in the season opener on Monday. It's a short week, the guys relax a little bit due to a Sun Belt school coming in town. It's your classic trap game. While I don't think the Noles can win the national title, they're not as bad as they'll look this weekend. Final: 24-20
10. Michigan vs. Central Michigan -- Not fair. I understand why UM does it, but it shouldn't play the directional state schools. Just not fair at all. Final: 55-12
11. Tennessee vs. Air Force -- Everybody jumped on the bandwagon last week as Rocky Top destroyed Cal. They are legit if Erik Ainge stays healthy. That's a big question. But for now, the Vols continue to roll. Final: 38-10
12. Georgia at South Carolina -- The Ole Ballcoach showed a little defense last week -- and only a little offense. This is a big matchup in the SEC early on. The Gamecocks are ready for the challenge. Final: 24-19
13. Louisville at Temple -- Temple is coming off a win. Louisville lost RB Mike Bush for the year. Doesn't matter. Brian Brohm is a superstar, while the Cardinals have more-than-capable backs to fill in for Bush against Temple. UL in a big win. Final: 49-14
14. Iowa at Syracuse -- I like Iowa a lot this year. But this is a potential trap game. On the road against a team that has been weak for a while but is starting to come back. I like the Orange to put up a fight. Final: 26-21
15. Oklahoma vs. Washington -- Another game that will expose OU. Last week it was UAB. This week it's a Washington team that is among the bottom in the Pac 10. Adrian Peterson will again carry the Sooners to a tough victory. Final: 21-17
16. Virginia Tech at UNC -- The Hokies get an early test in the ACC. Every year, the Tar Heels come up and scare, or defeat, one of the big boys in the conference. This is one of those trap games. The Hokies barely hang on. Final: 24-21
17. Miami vs. Florida A&M -- Just what Kyle Wright, Larry Coker and the Canes need after last week's loss to FSU -- a visit from FAMU. Miami's offense will put up some points and get some much-needed confidence. Final: 55-7
18. Clemson at Boston College -- A tough ACC game early. I like Clemson a lot, but they've been a perennial underachiever under Tommy Bowden. This is a game that will test these Tigers very early. BC, though never a factor in the national title race, always competes for a bowl game. I think Clemson shows it's for real this year. Final: 31-17
19. Penn State at Notre Dame -- See above.
20. Oregon at Fresno State -- These are the games Pat Hill lives for. One of the big boys comes to his home field. The Bulldogs always play better in September than they do in November, and this game will be no different. FSU thrusts itself into the national spotlight. Final: 27-20
21. Nebraska vs. Nicholls State -- The Cornhuskers are tough. Nicholls State brings in a spread option attack that could give the Huskers defense some problems on the edge. Nebraska just has too much offense though. Final: 48-13
22. Cal vs. Minnesota -- The Bears still don't have a QB. They were exposed last week by Tennessee, and will be so again this week against the Gophers. Final: 28-20
23. TCU vs. UC-Davis -- UC-Davis has a great offense, on their level. They aren't on TCU's level. Final: 40-18
24. Texas Tech at UTEP -- The Miners get a nationally-ranked team to step onto their turf. Senior QB Jordan Palmer (Carson's little brother) gets his chance for a coming-out party. He's destroyed all of UTEP's records and aims for 4,000 yards this year. This is the biggest game on UTEP's schedule, and I see Palmer pushing 400 yards threw the air, leading the Miners to a win. Final: 44-37
25. Arizona State vs. Nevada -- Both teams are trying to come off disappointing starts. Luckily for ASU, it won. Nevada, however, lost to Fresno and doesn't want to go 0-2. ASU will be too much, though. Final: 31-21
Denver Broncos Schedule
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