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I noticed quite a few deals went down today across the sports world and since I’ve been writing about nothing but baseball recently, it was a good opportunity to change gears. Well somewhat anyway, there’s plenty of baseball here too. But the NFL and NBA find their way into this column. So to recap the deals:
The Mets acquired OF Shawn Green from the Diamondbacks for LHP Evan MacLane.
The Phillies acquired IF Jose Hernandez from the Pirates for cash.
In the NBA, the Pacers acquired F Al Harrington and C John Edwards from the Atlanta Hawks for a 1st round pick.
In the NFL, Falcons, Broncos and Redskins made a three way swap. The Broncos sent WR Ashlie Lelie to the Falcons, who sent HB TJ Duckett to the Skins, who sent a third round pick to the Broncos.
Got all that? I neglected to mention a swap Green Bay did with Cleveland for two inconsequential players who will probably never see the field in any meaningful action this year.
Of course at Sportszilla, we’re not about just listing trades. If we post it, we’re going to analyze it. So fasten your seatbelts as we jump across sports to get to the nitty gritty, emphasis on “gritty.” (More on that later). And since I’m writing this, you know I have to begin with the Mets. Sorry non Mets fans, if you’re not interested, just skip past and check out the other deals. To be fair, it was the biggest baseball trade of the day…
New York Mets received Shawn Green and cash from the Arizona Diamondbacks for LHP Evan MacLane.
The Mets get an upgrade from Lastings Milledge in Green, but with splits of .283/.348/.429/.777 in a hitter’s park in Arizona, it isn’t as if the Mets just added a difference maker’s bat. Green represents an average outfielder at this point. Then again, the Mets really don’t need much more than that; they’ve already got three top flight offensive players in their lineup. And at six million next year Green isn’t a bad player to have, especially since Cliff Floyd will likely be allowed to walk in free agency.
The D’Backs get salary relief. They seemed determined to dump Green, and in exchange for picking up half the remaining contract, get a mediocre prospect in MacLane. If the 23 year old lefty couldn’t find his way into the Mets rotation this year, he likely never would. He had a 3.86 ERA in 121.1 IP at AAA with a 67/35 K/BB ratio. Despite a decent ERA, he currently he stands behind Brian Bannister, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, Phillip Humber and probably even Aaron Heilman on the Mets rotation depth chart. So he was expendable. But in Arizona, where the pitching after Brandon Webb is a giant question mark, he could be useful.
Phillies get IF Jose Hernandez from the Pirates for cash
Jose Hernandez has two claims to fame in my book. First, he would have easily shattered the single season strikeout record with the Brewers in 2002 if not for the fact he was essentially benched the last three weeks of the season to prevent that from happening. Secondly, he was the player the Pirates got back for Arimas Ramirez and Kenny Lofton. Great trade, eh?
This season 37 year old Hernandez has splits of .267/.328/.350/.678. At third base. Brilliant.
But it gets better. He’s actually an upgrade over Abraham Nunez, the Phillies current place holder there has splits of .208/.267/.268/.535. That’s in a hitter’s park… at third base. Just in comparison, last year my favorite whipping boy was Cristian Guzman of the Nationals. He managed splits of .219/.260/.314/.574… in the most extreme pitcher’s park in baseball… at shortstop.
To sum up, the Phillies have been starting possibly the worst regular baseball has seen in some time at third base, an offensive position. So yeah, this is one of those rare, rare times where picking up a 37 year old corner infielder with a .678 OPS is actually a good move.
As a side note, ESPN lists Nunez as “Abraham O. Nunez.” I’ll leave you to make as many jokes about that middle initial as you see fit.
The Pacers pick up F Al Harrington and C John Edwards from the Atlanta Hawks in exchange for a 2007 1st round draft pick
I guess the Pacers figure they’ll be out of the lottery now. Not sure how this makes them that much better. Harrington is a solid player; 18.6 points last year and 6.9 rebounds per game. I will not make a political joke here about Mr. Edwards… or a joke about talking to dead people… or even a joke about the religious history of this country (for all you history majors out there).
Maybe I’m missing something here, and since Larry Bird is considered to be an excellent general manager, it’s certainly possible. But how can you give up a first rounder when your team could easily miss the playoffs this year considering you’re overhauling the whole roster. And again, Harrington is a solid player, but worth a first round pick? I mean he averaged less points per game than Wally Szczerbiak, Ricky Davis and put up just .4 points per game more than the man he replaces, Peja Stojakovic. Would you trade a first for any of those players?
Good move for the Hawks meanwhile. They’re whole team is made up of small forwards, so to get an extra first rounder for one of them will help down the road.
Falcons get Ashlie Lelie, Redskins get TJ Duckett, Broncos get a 2007 3rd round pick from Redskins
Peerless Price didn’t work out so now the Falcons will try again with a talented speed wideout who’s had limited success in the NFL. This time they gave up less, as Duckett is a part time player. If Lelie pans out he’ll have far more of an effect on the team than Duckett ever could. Now will Michael Vick be able to get him the ball?
Guess Clinton Portis’ injury is serious. That’s the only reason I can see the Skins for picking up Duckett for a third round pick, a pretty steep price in today’s NFL. If Portis is coming back soon, then this is a waste, since part time backs aren’t that hard to find. Either way, this isn’t a good sign for the Skins.
With Javon Walker and Rod Smith, there was no need to keep the disgruntled Lelie around anymore in Denver. He never panned out to his first round billing, but a third round pick at this stage isn’t a terrible haul for the Broncos.
By the way, to the Skins have some sort of agreement with Denver that they must find a way to ship a draft pick to them every year? Actually, I think they also have one with the Jets as well, since I believe they gave their 2007 second rounder up to move up in that round this year.
So that’s the trade round up. But I’ll leave you with a few more passing thoughts on a some miscellaneous subjects:
-NL MVP voting- Pujols 7, Beltran 2:
Seven is the total number of RBI phat Albert had tonight against John Maine, all coming on the strength of a three run homer in the fourth and a grand slam one inning later. The problem? It’s the Cardinals’ general one in a nutshell.
Staked to a 7-1 lead, Jeff Weaver promptly gave four back in the bottom of the inning , surrendering a grand slam to Carlos Delgado. (His 400th career hr) Then after the Mets scored a run in the sixth, Carlos Beltran hit a two run, game winning homer of closer Jason Isringhausen in the ninth to seal the comeback victory.
When Chris Carpenter isn’t pitching Albert Pujols is the Cardinals lone weapon. Carlos Beltran is a big one for the Mets, but there are plenty of guys to pick him up if he has problems early on. If Pujols didn’t hit those bombs off Maine, the Cardinals likely lose big. That isn’t to say Beltran isn’t deserving of the award, but as of right now, I’d give it to Pujols.
-DFA'd Diaz Likely Done
Alliteration is fun. Anyway, Mini Manny aien’t that no more. Since a decent ’05 campaign where he posted a .795 OPS in 280 ABs, Diaz has fallen off the map. This year at AAA his line was .224/.276/.330/.606. For a corner outfielder. That’s just horrendous. When Michael Tucker got the recall over Diaz after Cliff Floyd’s recent DL stint, the writing was on the wall.
Still just 24, Diaz deserves a shot to play with someone. A change of scenery could help. Why wouldn’t someone like the Pirates or Royals roll the dice with him? It would be relatively shocking if he made it through waivers. In all likelihood, his days as a Met are done.
-Jets Set the Bar- Low
Gang Green picked up Niners half back Kevan Barlow this week in exchange for a mid round draft pick. Why? I guess the Jets are banking on a change of scenery and a better offensive team (no matter how bad the Jets look the Niners are much worse) will help Barlow resemble the guy who averaged 5.1 YPC in 2003. Still the Jets were better off gambling on one of their young guys, or just waiting until next year. I mean it’s not like this team is going to be contending for anything this season.
It's also looking more and more certain Curtis Martin's playing days are over. And that's a disappointment, considering how he went out.
-Judging “Heart”
I promised you "gritty" and I deliver. It's link time. Clark Judge apparently thinks the Vikings are very smart for replacing the extremely talented Daunte Culpepper for a “proven winner” in Brad Johnson. You know, akin to Tom Brady. Don’t laugh people: I’m dead serious. Just click the link and look at the title.
Apparently we’re all wrong. Talent doesn’t win championships. It’s scrappiness, grit and heart. Give me Brad Johnson, Ed McCaffery, David Eckstein, Brian Scalabrine and Darren Erstad and dammit, I’ll win you a World Series, Super Bowl, Stanley Cup and NBA Championship… all in the same year. And forget the World Cup, they’d dominate over teams like Brazil and Argentina! Because we all know white “heart” triumphs over minority “talent”.
Anyone rolls their eyes, try to remember the last minority athlete who ever got identified as “scrappy and/or gritty.” Also remember this:
You can’t spell “scrappy” without, well, everything after the “s”.
-Fight Night: Toronto
Speaking of scraps, who’s going to the be next Blue Jay to get into it with skipper John Gibbons? Vernon Wells? Lyle Overbay? Troy Glaus? Maybe BJ Ryan. But really there’s only one guy I want to see have it out with the literally embattled manager.
Doc Halladay. I can see the headlines now: Showdown at the OK Corral. Bring your own six shooter John; I hear Doc fires those pellets with pinpoint accuracy.
That’s two historical references in one column. Good sign if you’re writing a paper, bad for a sports site. So on that note, I think it’s time to end it for now. Until next time:
May the Abraham Nunez/Jose Hernandez platoon produce a .600 OPS at 3rd base… in a hitter’s park.
Now if they only had hustle and grit, those Phillies would be alright.
That’s right, the NFL is back. The defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers kick off the season by hosting the revamped Miami Dolphins at the Ketchup Bottle. With the Bus having moved on to the broadcast booth, and the now appendix-less Ben Roethlisberger on the sidelines, it could be a tough start to the season for the black and gold.
Tonight also marks the regular season debut of NBC’s coverage, featuring Bob Costas as the pre-game and halftime anchor, as well as a whole bunch of other guys. But Costas is back, and that’s the important thing.
I even dug up an old school video to get you in the mood:
Am I the only one who misses the network blazers? I was so inspired that after watching this clip, I went to visit my tailor. He’s currently putting together a Sports Matters blazer for me to wear while I work on posts.
Back to the games. We all know that Miami’s going to win tonight, but what about the rest of the season? I’d look into my crystal ball, but I trashed the stupid thing after it spewed out a Denver-Seattle Super Bowl two years ago, and a New England-Minnesota prediction last year. So instead we’re going to go on gut feelings, instincts, and all of the other intangibles that I can dig up:
AFC East
Sure they may not have a #1 or #2 receiver on the roster, a proven secondary, or a linebacker under the age of 42, but the New England Patriots have Brady-to-Ben Watson, and a fleet of talented running backs. They’re also strong along both lines, and as long as Belichik is calling the shots, you can’t count them out. Pencil them in for the division title, and at least 10 wins.
The Miami Dolphins are a trendy pick. They have an easy schedule, a quarterback coming off major knee surgery, and a feature running back who hasn’t been an every down player since high school. On the plus side, they have a great group of receivers, a talented front seven, and Nick Saban is such a good coach that everyone is willing to overlook the fact that they have a rebuilt and unproven secondary. Oddly enough, that’s the same situation that the Patriots find themselves in, but somehow Saban’s mentor, the guy with three Super Bowl rings as a head coach, doesn’t get the same benefit of the doubt.
Finally, am I the only one who thinks that Sex Boat Culpepper is going to get himself into trouble off of the field living in Miami? I mean, if he can do that in Minnesota, what’s he capable of in a party city like Miami? And it’s not like Coach Saban can watch him 24 hours a day.
Anyway, to summarize: the Dolphins are good, but not that good. They’ll beat New England at home in December, like they always do, but finish 2nd, and take one of the wild card spots.
Over in Buffalo, this is the year that JP Losman and the offense finally put it together. At least, that’s what I tell myself now, having spent high draft picks on Willis McGahee and Lee Evans in one of my fantasy leagues. What this probably means is that Losman will struggle, get yanked for Kelly Holcomb by Week 5, and the Bills will finish 6-10.
The New York Jets will be bad, really bad. But they also get Detroit, Houston, and Oakland at home, which might be enough to knock them out of the pole position in the Brady Quinn sweepstakes. If they somehow don’t win 2 of those games, they deserve to be relegated to NFL Europe for 2007. Bring on the Amsterdam Admirals!
AFC North
Killer schedule or not, this is the year the Cincinnati Bengals make the leap. Carson Palmer has looked great in the pre-season, and they are stacked everywhere on offense. Even if their D doesn’t come around, I don’t see any reason why they can’t pull an Indianapolis Colts (circa 1999-2004), and just outscore everyone for 16 weeks. My prediction: they go 11-5, and win the division by beating Pittsburgh in the final game of the season. The key to the game: a cutblock by Levi Jones on Kimo Von Oelhoffen to open the game, injuring the defensive lineman and keeping Carson Palmer safe for another day.
The Pittsburgh Steelers will be good, but not real good. With Big Ben recovering, and Willie Parker about to be exposed for being overrated, they’re going to get off to a very slow start. They’ll turn things around when they abandon the run and go pass-heavy in the second half, and do well enough to sneak into the second wild card spot.
As for the other teams in the North, Cleveland will be a spoiler all year, but doesn’t have the horses on offense to compete. Baltimore struggled last year, and things are going to get a lot worse. Injuries, age and a lack of depth will push them to the bottom of the division.
AFC South
Indianapolis should be just fine without Edgerrin James. They have enough weapons in the passing game, and some combination of Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai will produce a serviceable running game. I’m more intrigued to see how the losses on defense (Larry Tripplet, David Thornton) affect them. They could be forced to win more 38-35 games than they have been in recent years. Pencil them in for the division crown, but they’re not about to make another run at perfection.
Jacksonville is good, but they’ll take a step back with Jimmy Smith having retired, and no reliable backup to Fred Taylor, who will inevitably get hurt. The defense will keep them in games, but the 9 or 10 wins they’ll put up will put them just short of the playoffs.
Houston won’t be a playoff team, but they’ll mature as the season goes along, and will be a second half spoiler, and I don't just mean on the field. They'll spoil the seasons of most of their fans by refusing they made a mistake in the draft even after Mario Williams does absolutely nothing all season. As for the Tennessee Titans, no matter which combination of their three quarterbacks and three running backs emerges, it’s going to be a rough year. They’ve added some good players, but they’re not ready to be a contender yet.
AFC West
Here’s a bold prediction. The Denver Broncos will get off to a slow start, prompting Mike Shanahan to pull the plug on Jake Plummer and go with rookie Jay Cutler at quarterback by mid-season. Much to everyone’s surprise, the Broncos, behind Cutler and fellow rookie Mike Bell, will charge past the Kansas City Chiefs to win the division. Chiefs running back Larry Johnson will disappoint countless fantasy football players by establishing himself as merely a very good running back, not an extraordinary one. San Diego will have a rebuilding year, culminating in 6 or 7 wins, and the replacing of Marty Schottenheimer with a more player-friendly coach come January. Oakland will be bad, but they’ll find a way to win 4 or 5 games and play their way out of contention for the first overall draft pick.
NFC East
It’s all about the Philadelphia Eagles. The defense is loaded, Donovan McNabb is healthy, and the receivers will be improved. That should be enough to compensate for Brian Westbrook’s annual injury. Not only do the Eagles have enough firepower to win the division, they should take homefield advantage through the playoffs.
I’m putting the Dallas Cowboys second, based on their strong defense, but also the belief that the New York Giants will take a step back as Tiki Barber struggles, and coach Tom Coughlin alienated his players. Washington has a gimpy-armed quarterback, a hurting running back, and an overpriced defense. 6-10 is not the way Joe Gibbs intended to go out, but it’s probably what lies ahead for him.
NFC North
If Lovie Smith knows what’s good for his team, he’ll go to game manager extraordinaire Brian Griese sooner rather than later. If he does, I can’t see any reason why the Chicago Bears won’t comfortably win this division. The defense is great, they have playmakers on offense, and they play in the weakest division in the league. 12 wins wouldn’t surprise me.
As for the rest, Green Bay finishes second by default. They’ll surge down the stretch after an abysmal first half, prompting countless commentators to urge Brett Favre to come back for one more year, and therefore putting us through another insufferable “will he or won’t he retire?” saga. Minnesota and Detroit will both finish in the 4-5 win range, but on the bright side, the Vikes will avoid any major scandals, and the “Fire Millen” people will be lost to apathy, ensuring a controversy free year in the Motor City.
NFC Dirty South
I anticipate a big year for the Carolina Panthers. I’d really like to go against the grain, since they’re everyone’s popular pick, but I just can’t do it. They’ll win the division, and take the second spot behind the Eagles in the playoff seedings.
Tampa Bay will repeat their strong 2005 performance, and the Chris Simms-Cadillac Williams-Joey Galloway offensive trio will lead them to a playoff berth, where Simms can revive his college reputation for disappearing in big games.
Atlanta will be okay, but Michael Vick will continue to stagnate as a quarterback, and that will keep the Falcons from doing any better than .500 (I could even see them doing much worse). That is, unless Vick gets hurt. He’s the most obvious candidate for the Ewing Theory since Patrick Ewing himself. I’m convinced that the Falcons would be at least a 10-win team with Matt Schaub at QB. I may explain this more in my post “Why The Falcons Should Trade Michael Vick”, which means there’s about a 95% chance that I never will.
New Orleans will be fun to watch, since their offense will be dynamite. Unfortunately, they play in the NFL, not the Arena League, so their defense will do its part to keep them mired in mediocrity.
NFC West
I hate to be a Simmons-bot, but look for a big year from the St. Louis Rams. I have them winning the division, with Seattle taking a wild card spot. I think Bulger is a good quarterback, Jackson is a monster back, and they have one of the deepest receiving groups in the league. Most importantly, Scott Linehan understands the importance of protecting his QB, unlike his predecessor as head coach. The defense is also improved, so look for 10-12 wins out of this group.
I’ll give Arizona some respect once they put an offensive line and a secondary together. Until that time, I have to believe that they’re heading for another sub-.500 season. But on the bright side, at least they should be a trendy pick yet again next summer.
The less said about San Francisco the better. They should be slightly improved, but they overachieved last year, so that may not translate into a better record on the field. In any case, they’re at least two seasons away from contention, so I’ll be happy if Alex Smith progresses, Vernon Davis isn’t a complete bust, and they draft well in 2007.
Playoffs
Philadelphia is my pick in the NFC. Chicago doesn’t have the offense, Carolina is everyone’s pick (meaning they won’t win), and I’m not ready to gamble on St. Louis. The Eagles’ defense is strong, and if they have Brian Westbrook healthy, they can control the game on the ground. I have them edging out the Panthers in the title game.
I want to pick New England, but I can’t do it. I have a sinking feeling that the defense is going to implode, due to a combination of age, injuries, and lack of depth. Tom Brady may be a great quarterback, but one player can’t carry a team in football.
So who’s going to win the AFC? Pittsburgh and Miami aren’t quite there this year, Indy always chokes, and the Broncos will lack experience at key positions. Who does that leave? The Cincinnati Bengals. Though I expressed concerns about their D earlier in this post, I think it’s serviceable at worst if everyone stays healthy. Most importantly, they have balance on offense, and this is the year that Carson Palmer makes the leap to super-duper stardom. What better way to do it than by knocking off the Colts and/or Patriots on his way to a Super Bowl appearance.
Super Bowl
Who dey, who dey, who dey think they gonna beat them Bengals?
Not Philadelphia.
Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Philadelphia 20. Chad Johnson catches 2 touchdowns, is named Super Bowl MVP, and does the Super Bowl Shuffle to celebrate.
Denver Broncos Schedule
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