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Denver Broncos 2012-2013 Outlook
The Denver Broncos had a very unconventional 2011 season. They had the quarterback with the league worst passer rating, and yet still, won the division. Granted their division ended with a three way tie as three teams sported 8-8, the Broncos provided an adequate campaign, which saw them defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round of the playoffs.
The fun stopped there for Denver. When Tim Tebow brought his all-I-do-is-win-even-though-I-can't-throw style into New England for the Divisional round, he saw the exact reasoning behind all the skeptics' criticism of his style of play. The Patriots rolled over Tebow in a 45-10 romp. Still, coming out of the playoffs, Tim Tebow "had the starting job" according to Denver's President of Football Operations, former quarterbacking great John Elway.
Shortly afterwards, Elway rescinded the guarantee to Tebow, instead shipping him off to New York (where, unfortunately for Tebow, he'll play New England twice per year). Elway hurried into the crowd of teams eagerly pursuing Peyton Manning, perhaps the highest profile quarterback free agent ever. Manning ultimately opted for the Broncos, prompting Tebow's exit, and began the newest era of his career, changing over from the Colts to the Broncos following four neck surgeries. Interestingly, John Elway, the Broncos great was drafted #1 overall by the Colts, like Manning, but forced the Colts to trade him because he did not want to play for the team, ultimately landing on the Broncos. With Manning acquired, especially in a way that was reminiscent of John Elway's arrival, Broncos fans began booking their playoff trips and Super Bowl parties, without even a snap under his belt in over a year.
As the year begins in Denver, the biggest questions, though, come on the opposite side of the football. Denver enters 2012 with a new defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio, without their leading tackler last season, D.J. Williams, and possibly without their best pass rusher, Elvis Dumervil.
For Del Rio, he will be implementing a new system in Denver. Last season the defense was the true backbone of the team, despite the otherworldly amounts of coverage focused on Tim Tebow. With a new system in place, Denver will find out quickly how they are built, and need to be ready come Week 1. Too much change could lead to confusion and miscommunication, two things that can derail an NFL defense with even the most talent. Still, Del Rio will run the team how he is comfortable and with the guidance of the ultra conservative John Fox, the defense will probably be a very quiet one.
For D.J. Williams, he is current looking down the road at a 6-game suspension for violating the league's drug policy. Williams has been one of the mainstays of the Denver defense, and along with CB Champ Bailey is one the leaders of the defense. Playing in the middle of the field, Williams is one of the most cognitive individuals on the field, making defensive calls at the line of scrimmage before snaps. His presence will be sorely missed in the near third of a season Williams is slated to sit out.
In the case of Elvis Dumervil, a possible suspension looms in the wake of assault charges during July. If he faces any kind of suspension it would be very detrimental to the defense as they lose not just D.J. Williams, the leader in the huddle, but also Dumervil, their emotional leader on the field. With Dumervil out, teams could much more easily defend Von Miller, significantly limiting their ability to stop the pass.
Still, despite the questions on defense, the focus will be entirely on the offense. With the arrival of a true pocket passer, a rather large year can be expected of Desmaryius Thomas, the wideout who emerged as Tebow's favorite target. Thomas has been impressive, especially towards the end of last season, highlighted by his game winning touchdown to open Overtime against the Steelers in the Wild Card round.
Surely, some of the people who will appreciate the Tebow to Manning transition will be RB's Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno. The exit of the run-first quarterback should take the often-used eighth man in the box out of the equation and open up the first five yards of a run just a little more for the pair of backs.
The Broncos have upgraded more than any other team in their division. They know have the best quarterback in the AFC West, and by a wide margin. That upgrade alone, even if it comes with a diminished defense, should produce around ten wins for the Broncos, a mark that generally will yield a playoff berth. Expect to see Manning back on the field in January, fighting for the Super Bowl berth, though probably not in Denver. This should be a big year for the Broncos, as it looks to be their best year since 2005's bid ended as the conference runner up.